UFC 109 Betting Odds and Analysis

Desert Dog's picks and bets for UFC 109:

Main Card

Randy Couture via TKO, No Bet

Mike Swick via decision, Bet 400 to win 200 at Bodog
Marquardt via Submission, Bet 750 win 200 at 5Dimes

Miller via split decision, Bet 50 to win  162.5 at Bodog

Serra via submission, Bet 132 to win 100 at 5Dimes

Preliminary Fights
Mac Danzig via ?, No Bet
Guillard via KO, No Bet
Hague via submission, Bet 50 to win 95 at Bodog
Nover via Decision, No Bet
Davis via TKO, No Bet
Gracie via Submission, No Bet

Randy Couture (-400 BetUS) vs. Mark Coleman (+350 Bodog) 

Randy "The Natural" Couture (17-10 MMA, 14-7 UFC) and Mark "The Hammer" Coleman (16-9 MMA, 7-4 UFC) have faced off before at the 1989 Olympic Wrestling Festival. Coleman defeated Couture by a single point in a close match. The two were also scheduled to face off for UFC 17; however, Couture pulled out of the fight to rest a rib injury before a national wrestling tournament.

Despite similarities, this fight will be dictated by two differences. First, Coleman's  skill set has not changed, he uses strength and wrestling to take opponents down and ground and pound them into submission. Couture is, by contrast, extremely well rounded and can work effectively from his feet and in the clinch.

Secondly, Couture likely has a huge advantage in cardio. Coleman has never been known for elite cardio. Couture's cardio is legendary, and will have an advantage the longer the fight goes.

The current betting line gives Couture an 80 percent chance to win the fight. But don’t be fooled this fight will be very competitive. Coleman's strength and wrestling should make for an interesting first round.  Beyond the first, I expect Couture's edges in striking and cardio to eventually lead to a late-fight TKO stoppage.
Unfortunately I don’t see any value on either side of the bet in this fight.

Prediction: Couture via TKO, Bet none 

Nate Marquardt  (-375 5Dimes) vs. Chael Sonnen (+350 BetUS).
Chael Sonnen (23-10-1 MMA, 3-3 UFC) is an excellent veteran wrestler training with Team Quest. He’s on a two-fight win streak with victories over Yushin Okami at UFC 104 and Dan Miller at UFC 98.

Sonnen's size, strength and wrestling ability are what he has to offer, always looking for top control to grind out decisions. Sonnen is not a finisher...In 10 fights in the UFC and WEC, Sonnen is 6-4, with all six wins by decision and all four losses by submission.

Nate "The Great" Marquardt (29-8-2 MMA, 8-2 UFC) has been finished only three times in 39 fights...not a good start for Sonnen. Marquardt is exceptionally strong, extremely well rounded, a good striker and a great wrestler in his own. Training under Greg Jackson, Marquardt has access to training against some fantastic wrestlers, including Rashad Evans and Georges St-Pierre. Training with these two gives Marquardt the perfect opponents to prepare for Sonnen's wrestling skills and probable gameplan.

This fight opened with Marquardt as low as -250 on some sites, and I loved this line at that price. The value is thinner at this point but Marquardt is still better than 80% to win in my books.

Prediction: Marquardt via Submission, Bet 750 win 200 at 5Dimes

Mike Swick (-200 Bodog) vs. Paulo Thiago (+188 5Dimes)
Paulo Thiago (12-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC) is a jiu-jitsu black belt and grappler but after his KO of Koscheck he seems to believe he’s a striker. I think his following loss to John Fitch and unimpressive win over Jacob Volkmann should remind him and us that he’s an undersized slick Jitz guy...and that’s about it.

This fight was originally scheduled as a rematch for Thiago against Koscheck. Unfortunately a training injury in late December killed that but offered Mike "Quick" Swick (14-3 MMA, 9-2 UFC), a teammate of Koscheck's at American Kickboxing Academy, the chance to exact some revenge.

Speed kills and Swick is plain and simple fast. He has solid wrestling skills and very strong takedown defense. His striking is very technical and uses space and angles very well. Thiago tends to drop his hands and leave himself open when he throws. Swick's technical punching and hand speed should be able to capitalize on Thiago's below-average striking defense. Swick's solid takedown defense should prevent Thiago from getting the fight to the ground. Like Marquart, Swick works out with a couple of the top wrestlers in the UFC; combining that experience with the in-ring experience of both Fitch and Koscheck having fought Thiago, well he can’t be much more well prepared.

Swick should win this fight more than 70% of the time and therefore I see a bet at the current line as having strong value.

Prediction: Mike Swick via decision, Bet 400 to win 200 at Bodog

Demian Maia (-355 5Dimes) vs. Dan Miller (+325 Bodog)
On paper this looks like a terrible fight for Dan Miller. Miller (11-2 MMA, 3-1 UFC) is moderately well rounded with some Muay Thai skills, but he is primarily a wrestler and a grappler...he only has one TKO victory in his career, and that was a corner stoppage.

Demian Maia (11-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC) is an top-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighter holds a second-degree black belt, and trains with Wanderlei Silva's Wand Fight Team. His grappling and BJJ credentials seem endless. So we all expect that Miller is likely out of his league on the ground against Maia. But Maia in my books is the same as Paulo Thiago except he doesn’t even have the 1-in-a-1000 shot at getting a TKO. I know Demian has only lost once by TKO but it quickly showed both the weakness of his chin, his terrible standup, and his lack of power in this weight class.

Miller obvious gameplan is to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing. Maia’s takedowns are limited to pulling guard and trips from the clinch...effective as counters but much harder when put to use against a wrestler. Miller’s grappling is top notch and should be sufficient to defend a lot of submission attempts. Jason MacDonald proved that point for most of three rounds before finally succumbing.

This fight is going to the judges and how it will be scored will probably be a coin flip and I prefer to get +325 on my coin flips...small dog play on Miller

Prediction Miller via split decision, Bet 50 to win  162.5 at Bodog

Matt Serra (-132 5Dimes) vs. Frank Trigg (+130 Bodog) 
Well if it wasn’t for the main card we’d be talking about the age of 37-year-old Frank Trigg (19-7 MMA, 2-4 UFC) against 35-year-old Matt Serra (9-6 MMA, 6-6 UFC). It’s you’re basic wrestler vs submission specialist, except that little Matty Serra has some very heavy hands, having dropped Hughes, St. Pierre, and Parisyan..of course they all ended up beating him.

The odds and the betting public have this one close and but polling the MMA pro’s on the web, major web sites, and fighters that are posting picks, they favor Serra by 86%. Personally this fight makes me a bit nervous because I don’t have a good feel for Trigg these days, but I’m making a one unit play based on the opinions of people with more direct experience with these two.

Prediction Serra via submission, Bet 132 to win 100 at 5Dimes

PRELIMINARY CARD

Mac Danzig (-365 Sportsbook) vs. Justin Buchholz (+325 Bodog)
Justin Buchholz (8-4 MMA, 1-3 UFC) has all the weaknesses that will benefit the style of Mac Danzig (18-7-1 MMA, 2-3 UFC). Danzig has dropped three straight fights, but should have little trouble here. Of course, three straight losses should make anyone nervous and likely has Mac questioning a lot about his fight career. I really like the match-up but I don’t like the situation.

Prediction: Mac Danzig by default, Bet None

Melvin Guillard (-105 Bodog ) vs. Ronys Torres (+105 BetUS)
Brazilian Ronys Torres (14-1 MMA, 0-0 UFC) makes his UFC debut against Melvin Guillard (22-8-2 MMA, 5-4 UFC). Again the UFC is handing Guillard a great submission fighter which is his kyrptonite. He was absolutely killing Diaz with his power and speed...right up until he hung himself in a guillotine. Torres hasn’t seen this level of fighter or this bright of lights yet. But Guillard vs BJJ makes me nervous.

Prediction: Guillard via KO, Bet none

Phillipe Nover  (+105 BetUS) vs. Rob Emerson (-125 Bodog)
Both Phillipe Nover (5-2-1 MMA, 0-2 UFC) and Rob Emerson (8-8 MMA, 2-2 UFC) are coming off consecutive losses: Nover to Efrain Escudero and Kyle Bradley, Emerson to Kurt Pellegrino and Rafael dos Anjos.

Who cares...Nover by decision, no bet

Brian Stann (+235 Bodog) vs. Phil Davis (-235 5Dimes)

Polling the MMA pro’s on the web, major web sites, and fighters that are posting picks on this one, show that just over 70% of these folks back Phil Davis winning his UFC debut. That equates to a betting edge of... ahhh... ZERO.

Prediction: Phil Davis via TKO, Bet none

Joey Beltran  (+375 Bodog) vs. Rolles Gracie (-520 5Dimes)
Rolles Gracie (3-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) was supposed to face off against Mostapha Al Turk here but instead faces Joey Beltran (8-3 MMA, 0-0 UFC), who takes the fight on basically a week's notice and with just three weeks since his previous fight.

The betting world and MMA pro’s agree Gracie should win this fight 90% of the time. Still at –520 I feel money is better spent on other fights.

Prediction: Gracie via submission, Bet none

Tim Hague (+190 Bodog) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (-190 5Dimes) 
Chris Tuchscherner trains at Minnesota Martial Arts Academy under Greg Nelson and holds a 17-2 MMA (0-1 UFC) record and guess what...he’s a wrestler. Nothing more, well he’s also a little fat and out of shape, are those skills. I give him no credit. He was controlled  by a much smaller Travis Wiuff in early 2008 and then totally destroyed by Gabriel Gonzaga in 2009.

Tim Hague (10-2 MMA, 1-1 UFC) is a damn big SOB, who can take a hell of a punch and has solid standup and can slap on some quick submissions. His two fight in the UFC have been against very heavy strikers, one took him out (Duffee) and the other (Pat Berry) took a nap.

I’m a bit surprised that Hague is the dog here. The betting public seems to prefer Chris’s hair I guess.  Polling MMA pro’s on the web, major web sites, and fighters that are posting picks returns Tuchschererrrrerrnk as a 70+% favorite as well. I’m going against the grain on this one with a small dog bet.

Prediction Hague via submission, Bet 50 to win 95 at Bodog

UFC 109: Shopping the betting lines for Nate Marquardt

Nate Marquardt is facing vetran grappler Chael Sonnen, in what could be one of the most exciting fights of the show. Nate is now a heavy favorite, his betting line opened around -270 and have moved to a very wide range from -525 at Bodog to -370 at 5Dimes. It's pretty rare to see fight odds this spread out the week of an event. I think it's indicative of how this fight has been marketed and how the whims of the betting public are effected.

For those planning on betting this is a prime example of why you need to shop odds. Marquart should be a heavy favorite in this fight, but only one book is currently offering a line with value. If you like Nate in this fight get the odds offered at 5Dimes before they shoot up to -500.

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 109: Betting Odds for Dan Miller vs Demian Maia Widen

Over the last month betting lines on Maia vs Miller have spread. Maia initially opened at -320 at 5 Dimes and BetUS, now he's sitting as high as -500 at Bodog. Of course, the opposite is true for Miller who opened at +250 at most books and is now going for +350 at Bodog.

The betting pulic is looking at the history of one common opponent Chael Sonnen, Maia beat him and Miller lost to him. Chael does not translate as an opponent though. Sonnen is a strong wrestler with good ground-n-pound. It does show that Maia handled that level of wrestler better, but it's not the game plan either fighter will bring for this match up.

Although Miller usually wins via submission, he's going to look to keep this fight standing, especially after seeing Maia blink out so quickly against Marquardt. If Maia can't secure a sub his style often fades after the first round leaving him prone to losing the points game.

I don't see a great fight, Miller's submission experience will be just enough to keep him alive and his wrestling and striking could be just enough to eek out a desicion. Or Maia will continue pulling gaurd etc and find an opening for a sub. Miller has won 2 of 3 fights when listed as the under dog... So I'm saying I like this for a small dog bet, everything adds up for a shot.

You wanna make a bet....

Strikeforce Miami - Betting Odds and Picks

Event: Strikeforce: "Miami"
Date: Saturday, Jan. 30, 2010, at 10 p.m. ET on SHOWTIME
Location: BankAtlantic Center in Sunrise, Florida

As is typical of the Strikeforce events, some of the new names they are promoting strongly have been handed weak competition (Hershal Walker and Bobby Lashley especially). While not great odds they stack up well in a parlay bet. Although Lashley's odds are so through the roof it may actually hurt your parly odds.

Desert Dog's Bets: I'm making all bets through BetUS for this event.

Diaz: Bet 240 win 100 @ -240
Santos: Bet 1200 win 200 @ -600
Manhoef: Bet 555 win 300 @ -185
Walker: Bet 350 win 100 @ -350
Santos, Manhoef, Walker, Lashley: Parlay Bet 200 win 278 @ +139

Main event:
170 lbs.: Nick Diaz (-240) vs. Marius Zaromskis (+190)

Main card (Televised):
145 lbs.: Cristiane Santos (-600) vs. Marloes Coenen (+400)
265 lbs.: Bobby Lashley (-1400) vs. Wes Sims (+700)
185 lbs.: Melvin Manhoef (-185) vs. Robbie Lawler (+155)
205 lbs.: Herschel Walker (-350) vs. Greg Nagy (+250)

Under card (May not be broadcast):
170 lbs.: Jay Hieron (-300) vs. Joe Riggs (+220)
170 lbs.: David Zitnick (na) vs. Michael Byrnes (na)
155 lbs.: Craig Oxley (na) vs. David Gomez (na)
145 lbs.: Sabah Homasi (na) vs. John Kelly (na)
145 lbs.: Pablo Alfonso (na) vs. Marcos Da Matta (na)
155 lbs.: Ryan Keenan (na) vs. Hayder Hassan (na)

You wanna make a bet....

WEC 46 Betting Odds and Predictions

World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) goes down in Arco Arena in Sacramento, California on Sunday January 10. The main card promises some barn burners, especially the main event. Top billing goes to lightweight champion Jamie "C-4" Varner and interim title holder Ben "Smooth" Henderson.  Who will unify the belts?Tune in to the Versus network  at 9 p.m. ET and find out for yourself live.

Jamie Varner (-145 Bodog) vs. Benson Henderson (+115 Bodog)

The betting line shows that this should be a close fight, and the matchup says excitment as well. Two high engery fighters with strong wrestling. I know wrestling can be the start of boring but, in this fight their wrestling abilities will make for endless transitions escapes and exchanges of control. Both fighters have great heart and drive. As their wrestling skills cancel each other out, look to the standup to decide this one. Things should get pretty wild as this fight goes on.

If that holds true, Varner's power and crisp technique should give him an edge. Henderson however, is a stone wall and very difficult to finish. As this fight moves past round three we'll see how Varner fairs after a 1 year hiatus due to a broken hand. Henderson will likely have the cardio advantage, the question will be can he translate that into a dominating preformance. No one should underestimate Ben's striking, we just haven't seen him use it often, but it's good and if Varner fades at all Ben walks away with the unified title.

There's no great value in the odds for either side and barring the question of Varner's conditioning, the match up points to the odds being true and Jamie should pull out the desicion. But I don't roll like that, I have a feeling that Henderson is going to determine his own fate on Sunday. Look for lots of action in this fight but not much in the way of certainty in the out come.

Prediction: Henderson via Submission, Bet 100 to win 115

Urijah Faber (-400 BetUS) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+375 Bodog)
Faber is still the elite of this division and unfortunately, Assucao is not. There's not a lot to talk about here, the betting line says Faber should win 80% of the time and honestly it whould be closer to 90%. It may not sound lilke a great value, but Faber will only lose this fight via another injury, or freak accident and the odds of that happening...again are way less than 20%. Easy chalk bet.

Prediction: Faber via TKO, Bet 800 to win 200

Mike Brown (-800 BetUS) vs. Anthony Morrison (+500 BetUS)
Wow, stratospheric odds for this fight.  Brown was recently embarrassed by Jose Aldo and now he's poised to take his vengance out on WEC newcomer, Morrison. ATT trained, Mike Brown, will be well equiped to expose "cheesesteak's" weakness on the ground. Brown's 12 submission finishes are just a prelude to how this fight may go. But, if for some reason it does stay on the feet Morrison, who see's himself as primarily a striker, will discover the power of one of the strongest fighters in the 145 lb. division.

This one is set to be a route but unfortunately the odds are too much for me to bear. An easy prediction and an easy no bet.

Prediction: Brown via Submission, Bet None

145 lbs.: Mackens Semerzier (-120 BetUS) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (+150 BetUS)
Semerzier debuted for the WEC by upsetting jiu jitsu ace Wagnney Fabiano with a first round submission win back in October. Now he's facing another vetran submission fighter Taurosevicius.  Deividas is a much more well rounded and technical fighter than Macken's last opponent. Mackens will have the physical and athletic advantage, but it's still very early to know how his raw talent will hold up at this level of competition.

The books have Semerier set as the favorite and some of that may be how convincing his last win was combined with him just being a likeable fighter. He's got a bit of the Anothony Johnson factor: you can just sense something exciting can happen when he fights.

It's a tough call but I think Semerzier will let his hand go and soften Deivvidas up and by the third round Mackens will have found his range and broken his opponent down. Small bet on the favorite.

Prediction: Semerzier via TKO, Bet 60 to win 50

You wanna make a bet......

UFC 108: “The New Moon” Preview

On Dec. 29 "Countdown UFC 108: Jacob vs. Edward." will spotlight the Jan. 2 Event to be held at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.

UFC 108 is the UFC's first show of 2010 and has been redesigned weekly by the infamous gypsy curse, that can only be broken by an epic battle between two immortal beings.

OK, maybe I’m taking this creepy promo poster a little to far.

The UFC had grand expectations for the card, but a rash of injuries has left UFC matchmaker Joe Silva working overtime. Originally slated for the UFC 108 main event was a middleweight championship bout between champion Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort, GONE; then Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin, GONE; then Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Cain Velasquez, mmm GONE! Further down the list, the event has also lost:  Gabriel Gonzaga, Carlos Condit, Tyson Griffin and Rory Markham.

The preview show features Evans (13-1-1 MMA, 8-1-1 UFC) and Silva (14-1 MMA, 5-1 UFC), who could both make a case for a title shot with a win. Evans looks to rebound from the first loss of his five-plus-year career. The 30-year-old lost the UFC's light heavyweight title in May when Lyoto Machida dropped him in the second round of their UFC 98 main-event contest. Silva also recently suffered the lone loss of his career to Machida. After suffering a first-round knockout to "The Dragon" in January, Silva has since bounced back with a TKO win over Keith Jardine at UFC 102.

MAIN CARD

• Rashad Evans vs. Thiago Silva
• Paul Daley vs. Dustin Hazelett
• Joe Lauzon vs. Sam Stout
• Jim Miller vs. Sean Sherk
• Junior Dos Santos vs. Gilbert Yvel

PRELIMINARY CARD

• Rafaello Oliveira vs. John Gunderson
• Dan Lauzon vs. Cole Miller
• Martin Kampmann vs. Jacob Volkmann
• Steve Cantwell vs. Vladimir Matyushenko
• Ryan Jensen vs. Mark Munoz
• Jake Ellenberger vs. Mike Pyle

You Wanna Make A Bet..........................

UFC 107 Betting Odds and Analysis

Desert Dog's Pick for UFC 107:

Main card picks:

BJ Penn -275 (Bet 550 win 200) Bodog
Cheick Kongo +180 (Bet 100 win 180) Bodog
Jon Fitch -400  (Bet 1200 win 300)  BetUS
Kenny Florian -210 (No Bet)
Stefan Struve -135 (Bet 135 win 100) BetUS

Undercard Picks:

Wilson Gouveia (-105)
Matt Wiman (-340)
Johnny Hendricks (-500)
Rousimar Palhares (-340)
Edgar Garcia (-265)
T.J. Grant (-130)

B.J. Penn (-275 Bodog) vs. Diego Sanchez (+220 BetUS)

(21-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC) holds a black belt in Greg Jackson's Gaidojutsu  as well as a brown belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Saulo Ribeiro. In terms of meeting betting expectations Sanchez has pulled out the vicotry in every fight he was favored in and lost each fight he was the underdog in (+150 vs Fitch for example). Expectations put Diego on the bottom in this match up

B.J. Penn (14-5-1 MMA, 10-4-1 UFC) needs little introduction, widely regarded as one of the most talented fighters in the sport and one of its best pound for pound. Penn is one of the most talented in the world at Brazilian jiu jitsu and is widely considered world-class in two others: takedown defense, due to his flexibility and balance, and boxing, where he's been praised by elite boxing trainer Freddy Roach as "by far the best striker in MMA." As for meeting beting expectations he's an animal, never losing as the favorite and only losing one fight as the dog.

The betting odds are aligned for this to be a strong canidate for a chalk (favorite) bet. Style wise this fight works out in Penn's advantage as well.

Prediction: Penn via Submission, Bet 550 to win 200

Frank Mir (-200 5Dimes) vs. Cheick Kongo (+180 Bodog)

Frank Mir (12-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) is a skilled grappler and holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Ricardo Pires. Mir has long been known for having  cardio, lacking wrestling skills and elite striking skills. His results related to his betting odds have been mixed, with better preformances when he's been the under dog and moderate success as the favorite. his most recent win over Noguera was considered a fluke due to illness by most.

Cheick Kongo (14-5-1 MMA, 7-3 UFC) is a chiseled peice of manhood, with strong kickboxing skills but poor (yet improving) wrestling. Kongo's standup has been dominant, and he has been able to translate it into a solid ground and pound game. in his ground game. His betting history has shown him to be a woth while underdog bet, winning 2 of his last three fights in which he was listed as a dog and winning all of the fights he was favored in over the last 3 years.

Kongo has the most probable tools to win this fight and has shown over the lst couple of years he's a worthy bet as an under dog. If Mir had any sort of a wrestling game it would be a different story.

Prediction: Kongo by TKO,  Bet 100 to win 180

Jon Fitch (-400 BetUS) vs. Mike Pierce (+355 5Dimes)

Jon Fitch (18-3 MMA, 9-1 UFC) is a supreme wrestler and grappler. He holds a black belt in jiu jitsu under Dave Camarillo, and has only been beaten by Georges St-Pierre ( His only fight listed as an underdog too). fitch has NEVER lost as a favorite and proves time and again to be as close to a lock as you will find.

Mike Pierce (10-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC), also a very strong wrestler, will be facing the test of his fighting career.

Originally This was set to be Fitch vs Ricardo Almeida (11-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) at UFC 106 in November. When Almeida was forced to withdraw due to injury, Fitch was bumped to the UFC 107 to face fellow top contender Thiago Alves. Unfortunately, Alves was also forced to withdraw after an injury.

Plain and simple Fitch is 100% as a favorite and there's no reason to believe he won't dominate in every facit of this fight. Jon will be my anchor bet for this event.

Prediction: Fitch via submission, Bet 1200 to win 300. 
Ken Florian (-210 BetUS) vs. Clay Guida (+180 Bodog)

This one should go according to the odds. Guida is an animal, but a wild animal. Florian's measured and technical game should be able to overtake Guida's relentless vigor. The odds are a bit shy of true value and although I believe Florian will win, I'm leaning more toward a 60% chance and therefore I don't see any expected value in a chalk bet here.

Prediction Florian via Decision, Bet None

Stefan Struve (-130 BetUS) vs. Paul Buentello (-115)

Paul Buentello (27-10 MMA, 3-1 UFC) faces Stefan Struve (18-3 MMA, 2-1 UFC) on this bout that opens the main card. Struve is filling in for the injured Todd Duffee on a month's notice. Many fans are suprised that this fight maintained main card status over other solid fights on the card.

Both fighters represent almost total unknowns at this point. Buentello is having managierial issues as well as the fact that he hasn't been seen in the UFC for 3+ years. He's usually game for any match up, but Struve is a unique specimen. Coming in at nearly 7 feet tall and sporting a hell of a submission game.

However you line this one up it should be an intriguing fight with a very uncertain outcome. Great for entertainment not for betting. Still I have little faith in Paul's current situation and his ability to get past the reach of a 7 footer. Small bet here on Struve.

Prediction: Sturve via Submission, Bet 130 to win 100

Preliminary card: No interesting bets here.

•Alan Belcher (-125) vs. Wilson Gouveia (-105)
•Matt Wiman (-340) vs. Shane Nelson (+260)
•Johnny Hendricks (-500) vs. Ricardo Funch (+325)
•Rousimar Palhares (-340) vs. Lucio Linhares (+260)
•DaMarques Johnson (+205) vs. Edgar Garcia (-265)
•Kevin Burns (+100) vs. T.J. Grant (-130)

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 107 Penn vs Sanchez: Betting Odds and Free Fight Picks

The handicappers at BetUS are providing their usual excellent selection of free betting picks for this Saturdays UFC 107 Sanchez vs Penn event. BetUS is definitely the most UFC friendly sportsbook with excellent betting guides, picks, loyalty promotions, and of course thier always entertaining and informative podcasts and fighter interviews.

You wanna make a bet....

Frank Mir vs Cheick Kongo Betting Odds and Prediction for UFC 107

Frank Mir (-200 BetUS) vs Cheick Congo (+220 BetUS)

An interesting matchup and not the typical grappler vs kickboxer, because Mir's not that good of a wrestler. His ground game is very solid and but when the fight hits the ground he's on his back more often than not. Mir's very dangerous from that position, but stronger opponents like Lesnar were able to dominate him with ground and pound. Suprisingly, Kongo has just such a game on the top and even more importantly every fight starts on the feet and Kongo will have an extreme advantage there. If Cheick lands a shot like he did on Velasquez...It will be over before you can blink. His weaknes in the past was getting put on his back and flailing, but over the last few years he has made great strides and become down right deadly when he puts someone on their back.

Bottom line Mir's submission game is being overvalued here. Mir doesn't match up anywhere else and should not win this fight more than 2 of 3 times. Kongo's striking, speed, conditioning and yes...experience suggest he should be sitting around +150 or better. His ability to fend off subs is still in question but it's well within my comfort zone to float a 1/2 point dog bet on him

Prediction: Kongo via TKO, Bet 50 to win 110

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Kimbo Slice vs Houston Alexander Betting Odds for TUF 10

Kimbo Slice (+200 BetUS) vs. Houston Alexander (-260 BetUS)

The interest in Kimbo never seises to amaze me. He's an incredibly likeable aging hulk - but is he a UFC caliber MMA fighter? His brief fighting stint on TUF 10 didn't answer any questions about his ability. His desire to learn came through strong and he's continued to work on developing some sort of ground game...at least the ability to get up.

So how does Kimbo get welcomed to the UFC? He gets someone that dropped his last three UFC fights...sounds great right. But it's Houston Alexander and Kimbo's getting the "Ooo Daaamnn" response everytime he talks to someone about it.

Bottom line Kimbo has bum knees, little to no ground game - Houston does have a ground game (if he's on top) and his movement speed and power should outclass Kimbo handily.

The odds are going to widen quickly on this one and Kimbo could hit +350 by Saturday. Even at that line I wouldn't think about a bet on Slice. I'll be happily surprised if he has a good showing and somehow wins, but there's no way I would risk anything on his fight.

You wanna make a bet....