UFC 100 Betting Odds and Analysis

Desert Dog back with my tips and “Smart Bets” for UFC 100: this Saturday, July 11 at the Mandaly Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada. It's an unbelievable card as the UFC hits the century mark, with two world titles and a card filled with intriuging and tough match ups.

At first glance you might think most of these fights are set to be blow outs, but remeber the odds are set according to public setiment and betting favorites like Lesnar and St Pierre are driven by rabid fans. There are several prime opportunities on this card for solid chalk bets as well as some nicely set up dog bets.

Main card picks:

Brock Lesnar -240 (Bet $240 to win $100) BetUS
Georges St Pierre -270 (Bet $270 to win $100) Sportsbook
Jon Fitch -500 (No Bet) BetUS
Michael Bisping +175 (Bet $100 to win $175) BetUS
Alan Belcher +220 (Bet $100 to win $220) BetUS

Undercard Picks:
Stephan Bonner -325 (Bet $325 to win $100) Sportsbook
Mac Danzig +160 (Bet $100 to win $160) BetUS
Jon Jones -400 No Bet
Shannon Gugerty - 140 (bet $140 to win $100) Bodog
Dong Hyun Kim -265 No Bet

Brock Lesnar (-240 Sportsbook) vs. Frank Mir (+190 BetUS)

The second time around the lines for this fight opened up about the same as they were a year and a half ago.

Frank Mir, former Heavyweight Champ, has slowly worked his way back into top form since his accident in 2004. After a difficult loss to Brandon Vera at UFC 65, he has turned things around defeating Antonio Hardonk, Brock Lesnar, and most recently Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. All of his recent wins have been impressive finishes and he seems to only be gaining momentum. So why after only a year and a half is he still considered an underdog to someone he's already beaten.

MMA handicappers and the betting public believe that Brock Lesnar has developed real skills since their last meeting and that his freakish size and athleticism will now create a greater advantage. It's obvious from their last meeting that Mir can take some abuse and has the skill to submit opponents of any size. He's also shown some nice improvements in his striking and will hopefully put to test the chin of Lesnar. But we've also seen the massive damage Lesnar's hands can do.

Honestly, I hope Mir comes in with a solid game plan and sends Brock packing, but the reality is that Brock holds a 30 pound advantage, is a superior athelete, and has about 4 inches of reach on Mir. The odds look to be pretty true in this match up.

Pick: Lesnar TKO
Bet: 2.4 units to win 1

Georges St Pierre (-270 Sportsbook) vs Thiago Alves (+260 Bodog)

Georges has continued to focus mostly on training at Greg Jackson’s camp. His last two wins over Fitch and Penn were ideal demonstrations of his style and athleticism. These fights showed how he counters his opponents styles and as Jackson puts it, "finds their comfort zone and destroys it". When Fitch tried to wrestle, St. Pierre defended and attacked with brutal standup; when BJ tried to push the standup Georges took the fight to the ground and controlled the fight there. Countering an opponents attacks and imposing your own varied attack is the key to being a successful against any opponent. George is arguably the best wrestler in his division and that ability will be put to test in getting Alves out of his comfort zone. George’s power and speed is not in question but he knows that trading with a striker as powerful and skilled as Alves is a sure way to take a nap.

Thiago, who trains with American Top Team, has rattled off 7 UFC wins since his 2006 loss to Jon Fitch. Since that loss Alves has faced some of the most athletic wrestlers in the division including Parisiayn, Koscheck and Hughes…Turns out a great way to counter a wrestler is knees and fists. It also doesn’t hurt to be absolutely huge for your weight class. Alves has proven that he now defends well against wrestlers and has the ability to put anyone to sleep.

George and Thiago both agree this is the toughest opponent and the best striker St. Pierre has faced and as George learned the hard way, anyone with heavy hands is dangerous. So how can GSP win… control, striking, or submission, on the other hand Thiago is not going to outwork, control, or submit GSP he’s got one good chance and that’s a TKO.

The most likely scenario in this fight is a fast brutal opening from Thiago, with GSP surviving and then finding his range with kicks and finally turning things around in the second round with takedowns and a mixed attack from the top. As the fight wares on into the 4th round Georges conditioning and pace will provide many opportunities to end the fight via submission or TKO. It will take many swords to fall this bull, but he will fall late in the fight.

The odds have narrowed in the last few weeks and are pretty representative of the real probabilities in this fight with GSP winning 3 of every 4 meetings. Yes, if Thiago lands a solid combo he can put Georges away, but there’s no current value in chasing that bet. I'm Sticking with a standard 1 unit bet on St. Pierre. There is a chance that the betting public will push the uber-popular GSP's odds up and if Alves moves above +300 it would be worth a bet.

Prediction: Georges St Pierre via TKO
Bet: 2.4 units to win 1

Dan Henderson (-230 BetUS) vs Micheal Bisping (+175 Bodog)

The opinions on this fight are all over the board, but most people are leaning very heavy toward Henderson due to his experience, heavy hands, and tremendous grappling game. You hear cliches like "Henderson just knows how to win".

Recently Hendo stated that with a win over Bisping he thinks he's ready for another title shot. This brings up where he is in his career and how much more he has left. At 38 and having won and lost to belts in two weight classes Dan seems very focused on his one last hurrah. If I can just get the belt back and finish on top, I'm sure that's what's in his mind. The question is can his body continue to hold up to the demands and is he looking past "The Count" in this fight. He's a proven, level headed fighter and extremely difficult to put away, but that doesn't mean he's focused on Bisping instead of his legacy.

Micheal Bisping has gone through a very interesting progression, culminating in him moving down in weight just as Dan did. His last three fights at 185 have produced very impressive wins and shown how he has developed his Muy-Thia attack as well as his defense on the ground and feet.

Micheal's does an excellent job of avoiding real damage and dishing out his own. A new found favorite weapon - knees from the clinch - could be dangerous or deadly against Henderson. As long as they are fast and powerful enough to keep Dan off balance he's fine, but they could also become takedown opportunities. Another plus on Bisping's side is training with Rampage who is not only a very strong wrestler, but also a past opponent of Dan's and a great source for information.

The advantages for Henderson are his punching power and grappling and for Bisping it's speed, technical Muy-Thai and elusiveness. Being a three round fight could also be an advantage for Bisping, since he will have less time in front of Henderson's dangerous hands. Hendo's most probable way to finish this fight is via TKO, but he tends to start slow on the feet, preferring to take the fight down and wear his opponents early.

If Bisping can remain elusive and stay off his back early, he can bait Henderson into a standup battle. Now, It's not very like that Micheal can get past Dan's chin, but his speed, accuracy and technical skills on the feet will provide the points needed for a win. Henderson's grinding style depends on him getting an opponent down at will and then having that threat there the rest of the fight to keep people guessing and off their game plan.

I think this is one of the better dog bets on the card. I would prefer a betting line over +200, (which have been coming and going). There's a chance that Bisping's fan could even the odds out a bit more so if you like this one take it sooner than later.

Prediction: Bisping via Out-hustle
Bet: 1 unit to win 1.75

Jon Fitch (-500 BetUS) vs Paulo Thiago (+400 Bodog)
This is an exciting match up and the odds suggest this could be a very lopsided fight, but with Thiago coming fresh off his TKO of Josh Koscheck it's still very early to know how real the unbeaten Paulo is.

On paper Fitch holds the advantage in standup, wrestling, athletacism, and strength. Paulo's only real probability to win is his BJJ, I say that even with his first real TKO over Koscheck looking so convincing. His record however shows he's a submission fighter at heart. Fitch has solid enough BJJ and superior strength which should allow him to avoid the tap.

Unfortunately the odds are just too steep for a bet on Mr. Fitch.

Prediction: Jon Fitch via decision
Bet: None

Alan Belcher (+220 BetUS) vs Yoshihiro Akiyama (-265 Bodog)

This has the potential to be one of the best fights of the night. Akiyama is a heavy handed striker with deadly Judo and submission skills. He's currently running on 13 straight wins, other than getting knocked out with an illegal soccer kick 18 months ago. That aside he's a very aggressive fighter who's never gone to decision. Belcher has shown a growing arsenal and a never say die attitude. His most recent win over Denis Kang impressed many and showed that even for the most vetran fighters the first fight in the Octagon is often a poor showing.

Both fighters are very dynamic but I believe Belchers stature will be a significant advantage in this fight. Alan stands at 6'2" and holds a 5 inch reach advantage, he also has excellent kicks, and if he doesn't overuse them, a well timed head kick could be an easy mark. Akiyama changes levels very well in his standup but he tends to drop a little too often on his straight rights.

I'm nitpicking a bit but it's only because this will be a very close and exciting fight. The betting line on Belcher is a tremendous bargain and a bet I have to make. Akiyama is facing his UFC debut, and a taller longer fighter with the skill and strength to finish him.

Prediction: Alan Belcher via TKO
Bet 2 units to win 4.4

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 100 Airs Live and Free in the UK

According to The Sun, UFC 100 will air LIVE and FREE on Sky channel 433 - Formerly Racing World network — they will become a UFC station for nine hours. Coverage will begin at 9pm on Saturday with all five episodes of the UFC's Top 100 Fights. They will be followed by the official Countdown to UFC 100 program, taking you up to 3am when the live show from Vegas begins.

No subscription to Sky Network? Then head to the UFC.com and they will show you how to stream it live online.

You wanna make a bet....

Is Brock Lesnar The Best Heavyweight in the World?

Brock Lesnar (- 225 Bodog) vs Frank Mir (+190 BetUS)

Brock (Cock Chestnar...thanks Fightlinker) is no doubt a physical freak of nature and of course holds a tremendous wrestling background, but really what have we seen of him? His first big fight showed that as a wrestler he coud take down someone like Mir...who is great on the ground but has never been a solid wrestler or shown a need for takedown defense. In the end his first fight with Mir ended due to a lack of experience.

His next fight put him right back in the mix with Heath Herring a wry intelligent fighter, but someone who often fights in a defensive style. He was able to survive a brutal cock smack to the eye and go on to lose a decision. Brock maintained control throughout the rest of the fight but never was able to put Heath in a bad spot agian. We also never got to see Lesnar tested on his feet. Can he take a shot... how will he deal with someone of similar stature...IS there someone of similar stature??

His last fight with Randy Couture, pitted a superior fighter in terms of planning, skills, and ability with a monster holding a minimum of 50 pounds on Randy and the biggest heaviest hands in the UFC. In the end the The mass overcame the skills. Randy was able to control Brock in the clinch and was looking to put on a bit of a clinic in terms of game planning, but Brock's bricks are so heavy even catching what looked to be a glancing blow will put down any of the smaller heavy weights.

So, who out there has the skills or power to overcome the charging Cock? Of course the name Fedor jumps out of everyones mouth...for gods sake Dana just let him fight we don't care what the fucking stipulations are. Anyway beyond Fedor, there's also Josh Barnett who's someone with enough mass and a well rounded game that pits well against wrestlers. There's also a little more distant names like Cain valasquez or Shane Carwin. what it comes down to for now is size and athletasism. Brock is simply the biggest kid on the block right now and the only weapon other fighters have to battle that is a slick defensive game that provides an opportunity for some thpe of counter.

Mir came up with a slick counter in the first fight, but do you really think it will happen again? The reality is Brock likely knows what he did wrong and, as Randy Couture said of this fight, it's a lot easier to fix mistakes than it is to repeat what you did to the same fighter. Who do you think has the right tools to take out Lesnar??

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 100 Betting Odds and Analysis: Dan Henderson vs Micheal Bisping

Dan Henderson (-230 BetUS) vs Micheal Bisping (+190 Bodog)

The opinions on this fight are all over the board, but most people are leaning very heavy toward Henderson due to his experience, heavy hands, and tremendous grappling game. You hear cliches like "Henderson just knows how to win".

Recently Hendo stated that with a win over Bisping he thinks he's ready for another title shot. This brings up where he is in his career and how much more he has left. At 38 and having won and lost to belts in two weight classes Dan seems very focused on his one last hurrah. If I can just get the belt back and finish on top, I'm sure that's what's in his mind. The question is can his body continue to hold up to the demands and is he looking past "The Count" in this fight. He's a proven, level headed fighter and extremely difficult to put away, but that doesn't mean he's focused on Bisping instead of his legacy.

Micheal Bisping has gone through a very interesting progression, culminating in him moving down in weight just as Dan did. His last three fights at 185 have produced very impressive wins and shown how he has developed his Muy-Thia attack as well as his defense on the ground and feet.

Micheal's does an excellent job of avoiding real damage and dishing out his own. A new found favorite weapon - knees from the clinch - could be dangerous or deadly against Henderson. As long as they are fast and powerful enough to keep Dan off balance he's fine, but they could also become takedown opportunities. Another plus on Bisping's side is training with Rampage who is not only a very strong wrestler, but also a past opponent of Dan's and a great source for information.

The advantages for Henderson are his punching power and grappling and for Bisping it's speed, technical Muy-Thai and elusiveness. Being a three round fight could also be an advantage for Bisping, since he will have less time in front of Henderson's dangerous hands. Hendo's most probable way to finish this fight is via TKO, but he tends to start slow on the feet, preferring to take the fight down and wear his opponents early. If Bisping can remain elusive and stay off his back early, he can bait Henderson into a standup battle. Now, It's not very like that Micheal can get past Dan's chin, but his speed, accuracy and technical skills on the feet will provide the points needed for a win. Henderson's grinding style depends on him getting an opponent down at will and then having that threat there the rest of the fight to keep people guessing and off their game plan.

I think this is one of the better dog bet on the card. I would prefer a betting line over +200, (which have been coming and going). There's a chance that Bisping's fan could even the odds out a bit more so if you like this one take it sooner than later.

Prediction: Bisping via Out-hustle
Bet: 1 unit to win 1.9

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 100 Betting Odds: Georges St Pierre vs Thiago Alves

Georges St Pierre (-300 BetUS) vs Thiago Alves (+260 Bodog)

Georges has continued to focus mostly on training at Greg Jackson’s camp. His last two wins over Fitch and Penn were ideal demonstrations of his style and athleticism. These fights showed how he counters his opponents styles and as Jackson puts it, "finds their comfort zone and destroys it". When Fitch tried to wrestle, St. Pierre defended and attacked with brutal standup; when BJ tried to push the standup Georges took the fight to the ground and controlled the fight there. Countering an opponents attacks and imposing your own varied attack is the key to being a successful against any opponent. George is arguably the best wrestler in his division and that ability will be put to test in getting Alves out of his comfort zone. George’s power and speed is not in question but he knows that trading with a striker as powerful and skilled as Alves is a sure way to take a nap.

Thiago, who trains with American Top Team, has rattled off 7 UFC wins since his 2006 loss to Jon Fitch. Since that loss Alves has faced some of the most athletic wrestlers in the division including Parisiayn, Koscheck and Hughes…Turns out a great way to counter a wrestler is knees and fists. It also doesn’t hurt to be absolutely huge for your weight class. Alves has proven that he now defends well against wrestlers and has the ability to put anyone to sleep.

George and Thiago both agree this is the toughest opponent and the best striker St. Pierre has faced and as George learned the hard way, anyone with heavy hands is dangerous. So how can GSP win… control, striking, or submission, on the other hand Thiago is not going to outwork, control, or submit GSP he’s got one good chance and that’s a TKO.

The most likely scenario in this fight is a fast brutal opening from Thiago, with GSP surviving and then finding his range with kicks and finally turning things around in the second round with takedowns and a mixed attack from the top. As the fight wares on into the 4th round Georges conditioning and pace will provide many opportunities to end the fight via submission or TKO. It will take many swords to fall this bull, but he will fall late in the fight.

The odds have narrowed in the last few weeks and are pretty representative of the real probabilities in this fight with GSP winning 3 of every 4 meetings. Yes, if Thiago lands a solid combo he can put Georges away, but there’s no current value in chasing that bet. I'm Sticking with a standard 1 unit bet on St. Pierre. There is a chance that the betting public will push the uber-popular GSP's odds up and if Alves moves above +300 it would be worth a bet.

You wanna make a bet.....

UFC Betting Odds: Diego Sanchez vs Clay Guida

Diego Sanchez (-295 Bodog) vs Clay Guida (+235 Bodog)

This fight is shaping up to be an uber-paced lightweight battle that will cover every facet of the game. Guida has made himself a fixture in the UFC by putting on exciting fights and never getting out worked. He's primarily know for his wrestling, scramble and ability to push the action. Guida however is not typically a finisher and in this fight he's up against someone who can match his pace and wrestling skills. Overall, Sanchez has just a slightly higher probability of finishing a fight either by TKO or submission and in his second fight at 155 he's going to have a strength and reach advantage over Guida.

For Guida his best bet is to out work Diego, and to carefully work his GnP. It's very unlikely that he can finish Sanchez via TKO or submission. On the flip Diego's best shot is also to maintain control, but he does have a moderate chance of finishing Guida via submission. Guida has never suffered a TKO and it's pretty unlikely that Sanchez will be the first.

This looks to be a decent chalk bet on Sanchez for 1 unit...Meaning place a normal bet size that your bankroll can afford...If it's $5 or $1,000 that's up to you.

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 99 Betting Odds and Analysis

The first ever UFC card in Germany goes down this Saturday and promises some exciting match ups and some familiar old faces in "UFC 99 Comeback ". Silva, Cro Cop, and Franklin have been in the game for a very long time and all have impressively held belts in their day. So who will look like the man of his glory days...or will any of them? With six bouts set for the broadcast card there's sure to be plenty of fireworks

Here are the “Smart Bets” for UFc 99:

Main card picks:
Rich Franklin -140: Bet $140 to $100 Sportsbook
Cheick Kongo +160: Bet $100 to win $160 BetUS
Mirko Cro Cop -400: No Bet
Mike Swick -200: Bet $100 to win $50 BetUS
Marcus Davis -200: Bet $200 to win $100 BetUS
Spencer Fisher -200: Bet $200 to win $100 BetUS

Undercard Picks:
Terry Etim -350 -- No Bet
Paul Kelly -400 -- No Bet
Paul Taylor -350 -- No Bet
Dennis Siver -170 -- No Bet
Stefan Struve -125 -- No Bet
John Hathaway -140 -- No Bet

Whatever your bets are for UFC 99 make sure you look at the realistic outcomes and use solid bets to cover your bigger risks. You don’t have to bet on them all, just stick to the fighters you know and match ups that give that best probability to make some dough.

Rich Franklin (-140 Sportsbook) vs Wanderlei Silva (+115 BetUS)
Wow, this is a fight many fans had even thought of a year ago, now here we are at a catch weight of 195 watching two stalwarts of the MMA world getting ready to go to war. The all American school teacher vs the Axe murderer sounds like something just a little disturbing that you won't be able to look away from.

Franklin will look to use his reach and unorthodox style to control on the feet while Silva will look to keep things a little closer working more from the clinch and a more tradition Muay-Thai style. On the feet this will be decided by strength and speed and at this catch weight I think Franklin holds the advantage in both. Especially if he listened to his little buddy Anderson Silva on how to handle Silva's clinch work.

An interesting question is, will Franklin look to take this fight to the ground? Although Silva is a BJJ black belt, he doesn't really like to be on the ground especially on his back. Tossing in a couple of takedowns a round could really keep the points swinging the way of Franklin, just in case he can't muster up enough power to clean the melon on Wandi's shoulders.

Pick: Franklin via decision
Bet: 1.4 units to win 1

Mirko Cro cop (-400 Bookmaker) vs Mustapha Al-Turk (+350 Bodog)
Cro Cop is back! well I hope I get to say that after Saturday night. It's obvious he has to show us all that he's back, hungry, ready for the cage and talented enough to handle the giants and elite grapplers of the Heavyweight Division. We got to big boys coming in on short notice and both are coming off bad preformances and for Mirko surgery as well; which could mean lights out quick for someone...or more huffing than a night with Courtney Love.

I believe Mirko should take this fight, but with the current odds on this fight are still favoring the Cro Cop mistique way too much, I can't justify a bet. Right now, Cheick Kongo is the only underdog I'm leaning toward but with odds of +350 Al-Turk is tempting me... just a bit.

Pick: Mirko Cro Cop via TKO
Bet: None

Cheick Kongo (+160 BetUS) vs Cain Velasquez (-200 BetUS)
Once the announcement was made that Herring was out and Cheick was in, this fight got a lot more interesting. Taking nothing away from Heath, Kongo will be a huge test for the new Heavyweight golden boy Velasques.

Velasquez, a former 2-time All-American wrestler,has been on a terror; chopping through his first five opponents, all by TKO and only seeing round 2 once. Cain puts his wrestiling to use very well controling opponents on the ground and inflicting serious damage very quickly. What he hasn't faced yet is a larger, stonger fighter with exceptional striking skills and power.

Wrestlers typically fair well against Kongo, but it's been very appearent over his last three fights that he's really working on his ground game especially his takedown defense. On top of that he's started putting together a very decent GnP game of his own.

Knowing that Velasquez is not another lay and pray wrestler but someone looking to just put you to sleep, Kongo will have an easier job when he is on his back. He won't have to worry about submissions or just being controled. Kongo will simply have to stay conscious and get up... easy right?

No questions of conditioning in this fight just who can impose their style. Cain has the right tools to take out Kongo. Cheick has the experience and tools now to deal with most wrestlers. Personally, I'm going with experience, a couple of huge knees, and maybe one quick kick to the nuts. I like the odds here and I'm really looking forward to what this does for the Heavyweight standing.

Pick Cheick Kongo via TKO
Bet: 1 unit to win 1.6

Mike Swick (-200 SportsBook) vs Ben Saunders (+175 BetUS)

Two quick lanky smart ass goofballs will likely be a fight of the night. Swick's speed and technichal prowess will be tested by Saunders size, heart, and sweet Jeet Kune Do style. The reach is even, Swick will have a speed advantage, an advatage in experience, and submissions. This should be an all out war with a lot of abuse going both ways, but in the end Swick knows how to win and will put this one away making his first step back as an exciting and explosive fighter.

Pick: Mike Swick via Decision
Bet: 1 unit to win 0.5

Marcus Davis (-200 Sportsbook) vs Dan Hardy (+175 BetUS)
Seetting all the shit talking aside Marcus Davis holds the advantage in every aspect of this fight except for reach, his speed and and technique has always taken care of that though. Dan Hardy had a great last fight with a KO of the IFL can Rory Markham, yes I called him a can. You can't call a split decision over Gono and any win over Markham proof that your're one of the most dangerous fighters at 170. Stoking Davis' fire with all the shit talk isn't going to improve his odds either. Davis looks good for a standard chalk bet in this fight.

Pick: Marcus Davis via Submission
Bet: 2 units to win 1

Spencer Fisher (-200 Sportsbook) vs Caol Uno (+175 BetUS)
Jesus, Caol has been fighting since 1996 and looks like...well not to beat a dead horse, but he looks like an asian Courtney Love after buying crack. Really, how is Uno still getting fights? How is he still relevent in the UFC lightweight division? He's best remembered for having his face rearranged by BJ Penn back in 2003. After that he's been hanging around K-1 working on pulling out decisions and occasionally falling unconsious.


Fisher will bring his non stop standup attack, backed up with a solid ground game and the ability to escape from most submission attemps. He'll also be stronger, faster, and just barely prettier. Easy win for Fisher.

Pick: fisher via TKO
Bet: 2 units to win 1

Terry Etim (-350 BetUS) vs Justin Buchholz (+300 Bodog)
Etim has looked pretty good, but his losses to Tibau, and freaken Clementi it's obvious he needs some work. On the flip side Justin has a loss to flipp'n Matt Wiman. What I'm saying is, both fighters have work to do.

Etim has the most well rounded fight game of the two and definitely a bit of a reach advantage. Buchholz has a more powerful striking game. This one is tough to call, I'm leaning toward Etim because he has more ways to win but the odds offer no value. So I'll just watch this one

Dennis Siver (-125 BetUS) vs Dale Hartt (-115 BetUS)
Both are pretty new to the scene, with good and bad fights under their belt. speaking of belts, Hartt informed us at the UFC web site that his one martial arts ranking is a BJJ white belt...Well at least he's honest. Quick pick for Siver simply based on strength and wresteling, but I'm happy to just let this one go.

Paul Taylor (-600 BetUS) vs Peter Sobotta (+300 BetUS)
Taylor is one of those very good fighters who always has exciting fights but unfortunately has ended up with a losing UFC record. Sobotta is making his UFC debut in his home country. Peter looks to be a well rounded fighter and hopes the backing of his country will bring him a win and of course more fights in the UFC. No bet here either, I have to pick Taylor in this fight but never having seen Sobotta fight I have no recommendation.

Paul Kelly (-400 BookMaker) vs Rolando Delgado (+325 BetUS)
Kelly is probably the best fighter on this undercard and that's mostly because he's just so damn tough. Paul is very skilled but he takes punishment without blinking and returns the favor with double the intensity.

OK that's enough the other two fights likely won't be seen and honestly I don't have enough info on any of them to make any sort of predictions. Have a good night of fights.

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 100 Betting Odds: Frank Mir vs Brock Lesnar...Again

Brock Lesnar (-215 Sportsbook) vs. Frank Mir (+190 BetUS)

The second time around the lines for this fight have opened up about the same as they were a year and a half ago.

Frank Mir, former Heavyweight Champ, has slowly worked his way back into top form since his accident in 2004. After a difficult loss to Brandon Vera at UFC 65, he has turned things around defeating Antonio Hardonk, Brock Lesnar, and most recently Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. All of his recent wins have been impressive finishes and he seems to only be gaining momentum. So why after only a year and a half is he still considered an underdog to someone he's already beaten.

MMA handicappers and the betting public believe that Brock Lesnar has developed real skills since their last meeting and that his freakish size and athleticism will now create a greater advantage. It's obvious from their last meeting that Mir can take some abuse and has the skill to submit opponents of any size. He's also shown some nice improvements in his striking and will hopefully put to test the chin of Lesnar. But we've also seen the massive damage Lesnar's hands can do.

Still plenty of time to think about this one, but if you think Mir can survive the huge bricks on the ends of Lesnars arms, he looks a little attractive at the current line.

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 98 Betting Odds: Rashad Evans vs Lyoto Machida

Rashad Evans (+170 BetUS) vs Lyoto Machida (-200 Bodog)

It's a dream LH championship fight with two unbeaten fighters meeting in their prime. Two opposing standup styles that both rely on speed and varied attacks, both are very strong on the ground with Machida having a better submission game and Rashad having strong wrestling and a vicious ground and pound game. This match up is incredibly close and each have the tools to finish the other standing or on the ground...

Waht it all means to me is that Rashad is way, way under valued at +170 (37% probability). Machida should have just a slight edge overall in this fight, but really it's as close to a 50/50 fight as you could want. I don't have time to dive into all the detail of their styles and records, I just see a huge edge in a bet on Rashad, plain and simple.

Sugar's unbeaten and holds the belt, you have to respect that. The odds will start moving toward even as the fight grows closer so get your bets in now if you want a little sugga!

You wanna make a bet....

UFC 98 Betting Odds: Sean Sherk vs Frankie Edgar

Sean Sherk (-265 Sportsbook) vs Frankie Edgar (+215 Bodog)
Sean Sherk sports an impressive record but remember, he has only fought 4 times in the last three years. His opponent Edgar is no slouch in terms of experience or solid wins under his belt. Both fighters have recent wins over Hermes Franca and Tyson Griffin and both have just come back with a good win after a difficult loss.

Joe Silva has done his job with two fighters that are well matched in terms of differing skill sets and records that put them in very similar rankings. Some would argue that Edgar should not be this well ranked after his loss to Gray Maynard, but with wins over Mark Bocek, Spencer Fisher, Hermes Franca, and Tyson Griffin, he has to be pushed up the ladder. Sherk has fought better competition (Hughes, St. Pierre, Penn) but he's lost miserably to all of them...

OK, so the quick and dirty match up...Sherk will come with the Gray Maynard fight plan looking to out "muscle" Edgar and control him on the ground. Edgar has stated he's changed his training and strategy for this fight, he's worked even more on his take down defense and will be looking to control the pace as he has in the past on the feet. Sherk's loss to B.J. exposed that quick, technical strikers have a real advantage over his mechanical short hooks and jabs.

Neither fighter has finished a fight in several years and that trend will probably continue on this night. If Sherk maintains ground control it's unlikely he will be able to submit or TKO Edgar there, Edgar has great scrambling and ground defense. On the other side of the coin if Edgar does keep it standing for most of the fight, his speed and accuracy will give him the points to win but, he's lacking the power to get through Sherk's chin.

The fight will simply come down to can Edgar avoid being out powered, can he avoid the take down and when he hits the ground how fast can he get up. In my opinion if he follows his game plan he has about a 35-40% chance of pulling out the decision. His current odds are giving him a 32% chance, not much of an edge there, but if his odds hit +250 on up it's worth a look. For Sherk, his best odds say he should win 73% of the time, again no real edge (by my capping).

I have a feeling that Sherk will start showing his age soon and that Edgar may just come into his own at this event. There's just something changing about both of these fighters and I think Sherk is about to start a downswing. I'd prefer a stronger edge for my bet, I'll put one in now and watch the odds.

You wanna make a bet....