Jon Jones vs Lyoto Machida Betting Odds and Opportunities

Is there something the betting public knows that you and I don't...is Lyoto sick?  I don't think so, this seems to be a case of the fan favorite pulling odds that don't fit the fight.  You can can go to fight metric and look at stats...it's even there.  You can look at past performances and common opponents... that give some edge to Bones. But, what justifies Lyoto Machida as a 4 to 1 underdog in any fight?

I really like Jon Jones and I think this is a very winnable match-up for him, but when it comes to betting, I would never put money on him as a heavy favorite against such a dangerous and talented fighter. However you look at this fight, if you plan on making a bet and like to play the odds you have to put some kind of money on Machida with the current betting line at +425!

Currently the betting odds on Jones and Machida have seen the biggest spread at BetOnline Sportsbook, with the odds on Machida nearly doubling over the last month.  BetOnline has experienced record growth in the last two months and with that comes a lot of new bettors who pile on behind favorites and create these huge swings in betting lines.

Obviously don't put your whole bankroll on this or any bet, but these are the type of opportunities that sharps are always looking for.

You Wanna Make a BET............

UFC 140 Machida vs Jones Betting Odds Preview

UFC 140 is going to be a blast as the mixed martial arts product returns to the city of Toronto, Canada for the second time. Canada is a hot bed for any type of fight sports and the UFC is giving the fans exactly what they want: another star-studded UFC card.

UFC betting fans will get to see Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones, former Light Heavyweight Champions Lyoto Machida and Tito Ortiz, former Heavyweight Champions Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogeuira, his twin brother Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and as many as seven Canadian fighters.

Feel the adrenaline with all of the best UFC betting lines at Bodog Sportsbook.

Bones Jones Favored by Odds Makers, Public

For all intents and purposes, Jon “Bones” Jones is undefeated in his MMA career. He does have the one loss to Matt Hamill by technicality, but he was in complete control of that fight and nobody for a second actually counts that as a loss.

What’s even more impressive is the fact that Jones hasn’t even really broken a sweat in his entire MMA career.

Taking a look at his last five fights, he’s never even been close to losing:

He broke Brandon Vera’s face in three places at UFC Live: Vera vs Jones, he destroyed Vladimir “The Janitor” Matyushenko at UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko, he choked out the previously undefeated Ryan Bader in the second round at UFC 126, he easily won the Light Heavyweight title from Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 128 and he choked out Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in his first defense of the title at UFC 135.

Now he faces Lyoto Machida in what will be his toughest test to date, but few people are betting that he’s the man to stop him. The odds makers have made Jones a big favorite and the bettors are piling on.

Jones is just a freight train of momentum these days and everyone is hopping onboard.

Mir Squaring Off with Big Nog

It’s a rarity that it happens, but we’ll see both of the Nogueira twins on the same card at UFC 140.

Frank Mir will take on Big Nog, otherwise known as Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in a bout with some serious heavyweight implications. Frank Mir is coming off back-to-back wins over Roy Nelson and Mirko Filipovic, and he feels he’ll be in line for a title shot if he wins on Saturday.

As for Big Nog, he’s 2-2 in his last four fights and one of those losses was to Mir at UFC 92. His two wins have come against Randy Couture and Brendan Schaub, so he has some impressing to do.

There’s a score to settle between these two after their first bout. There was bad blood between them as they were the coaches of the eighth season of The Ultimate Fighter, and when they squared off at UFC 92, Frank Mir dominated the fight with a second round knockout. It was the first time that Big Nog had ever been stopped in his career.

Two days after the fight, Dana White revealed that Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira had been battling a staph infection and needed to spend five days in the hospital just weeks before the fight. Needless to say, Big Nog claims he wasn’t 100%.

But Frank Mir doesn’t care for excuses.

Bettors seem to side with Frank Mir as the early action has come in on him to duplicate his result and earn yet another win. Frank Mir is also three years younger and Big Nog has looked an old 35 in his last few fights.

Little Nog Favored vs. Huntington Beach Bad Boy

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will take on Tito Ortiz in another big-name bout at UFC 140.

While Big Nog is an underdog on the MMA betting lines, Little Nog is actually favored over Tito Ortiz on the card.

While both fighters are big brand names, it looks fairly clear that both are in the twilights of their careers. We’ve seen some early action on Tito Ortiz as an underdog and that’s not surprising as he’s a fan favorite. But we’re not sure we agree with it as Tito Ortiz has now lost five of his last seven fights with one draw. Also, this will be his third fight since July, which is quite the busy schedule for him.

As for Antoinio Rogerio Nogueira, he’s dropped two straight to Phil Davis and Ryan Bader. Coincidentally, Bader is the only win for Ortiz in his last seven, so bettors may look to that common opponent to gain some insight into this fight as well.

Little Nog’s UFC wins have come against Jason Brilz and Luiz Cane, which won’t exactly impress anyone. Ortiz may have a slew of losses on his recent resume, but he’s been fighting the best of the best: Chuck Liddell, Rashad Evans (twice), Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin, Matt Hamill and Bader.

With so many stars at UFC 140, it’s sure to be a suspense-filled event.

Get all of the best UFC betting lines at Bodog.

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TUF 14 Betting Odds and Picks

This card is filled with names that most of us can't put with a face, so I put up a reminder. Mayhem Miller vs Bisping is the reason most folks will be watching this event, but for sports bettors there are some interesting values to look at. Don't go crazy with the underdog bets, make sure you have one or two solid anchor bets and use 2/3rds of your probable winnings to bet on the dogs.

Jason "Mayhem" Miller (+165) vs Michael Bisping (-175)
Miller hasn't seen enough action in the last two years to have a good feel for how competative this fight will be. With Bisping fully embracing the role of UFC dick many will be making the emotional pick of Miller, but for myself I'm just watching this one with my fingers crossed that Mayhem is going to be a new player in the division.

Pick: Miller via...I'll take anything

Tony Ferguson (-300) vs Yves Edwards (+270)
Probably the top dog value on the card. First, like most vetran MMA fans, Yves is one of my favorites.  That does not change his value in this fight. On the down side is his age and the fact that he got royally cracked 2 fights ago against Stout. The upside is huge though, experience, speed, power, Thugjitsu, and he TKO'd his last opponent. Ferguson has looked very good and determined in his last 2 fights, but he has never faced someone this cagey. Yves Edwards as a 3-1 underdog can't be passed up.

Pick:  Edwards via TKO
   
T. J. Dillashaw (-200) vs John Dodson (+180)
Agian Dillashaw is a highly overvalued fighter in this match up. Most are touting TJ's training with team Alpha Male and forgeting that he has only 4 fights. Strangely, most are ignoring that Dodson has 17 fights over 8 years and has trained with Greg Jackson for 10 years. Dodson showed great wrestling defense and the ability to finish fights with serious power for the division.  Dillashaw has shown the ability to wrestle people to death, but that style never warrents 2-1 favorite.

Pick: Dodson via TKO

Diego Brando (-240) vs Dennis Bermudez (+290)
Bermudez may not be afraid of Diego, but I am, dude's a killer.  Brando also trains with Greg Jackson along with Dodson. He is also a fiery emotional fighter, that can be good or bad. Any time he senses weakness he goes nuts, it leaves openings. Bermudez showed he could weather storms and gut his way through some tough fights, but in this one his chin will let him down. If it does hit the ground don't forget Diego is a BJJ blackbelt. There's just isn't anywhere Dennis has an advantage.

Pick:  Brando via KO

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UFC 139 Betting Odds and Fight Analysis

 

Dan Henderson (+110) vs. "Shogun" Rua (-140)
Over the years it's been questionable as to how either of these fighter would preform after layoffs or injuries, but I'm just going to assume that tomorrow night the best of both are going to show up.  If that holds true it should make for a hell of a fight. H-bomb vs the onslaught  -  iron chin vs illusive attack. There are two big factors in this fight in my eyes, it's five rounds and Hendo apparently can't be knocked out.  Now never say never when Shogun is coming at you, but if it comes down to who can take more abuse, Rua has wilted under pressure more than Dan. If Rua doesn't hurt Dan and get control of the fight early, Henderson will make it very rough to survive. Rua tends to fade in later rounds and with a list of GnP TKO's longer than his...it's not hard to imagine Rua looking like Fedor in his last bout with Hendo.  Now if Rua comes in attacks Dan's legs early then attacks with fast illusive flurries he may be the first to break the granite chin of Dan. I don't see either looking at subs, but I do see some potential for a 5 round decision, but of course the most likely outcome will be a TKO and Dan has the edge there.

My pick: Dan Henderson.

Wanderlei Silva (+115) vs. Cung Le (-145) 
Oh Wandi, we love you but you're becoming the next Chuck Liddell, I don't want to see you get hurt.  I know these guys are warriors and want to go out on their sword, but Dana White is right to worry.  I will say this is the biggest name that Cung Le has ever faced and the level of aggression and experience that someone like Silva brings to the cage always presents a real danger.  However, When you match up Le's arsenal of kicks, Thai boxing, and takedowns, against Wandi's generally straight forward Axe Murdering style, Le has more weapons and a better defensive game as well. Cung has great throws from the clinch, and almost never follows his opponent to the ground. He prefers to throw them down and let them get back up in frustration. This frustration leads overly aggressive attacks that are met with mule like spinning back kicks and a right hand that's very accurate. If Lee had been in the UFC for a year or two his odds would be -300 in this fight. I think this fight will be an eye opener for the rest of the division.

My pick: Cung Le. Great odds on Le, he's not well know by squares and it's his first UFC fight.

Urijah Faber (-250) vs. Brian Bowles (+195) 
Urijah is probably the most famous fight this division will ever produce, but it doesn't mean he's the best. Faber is 4-4 in last eight fights while Bowles has only lost once, was the division champ last year, and has great success against wrestlers.  Perhaps Faber's experience and speed should make him a slight favorite, but 2 to 1 is ludicrous. Brian has enough speed to get control of this fight and avoid Faber's grappling, and when it's on the feet, Bowles can knock anyone out...Period. I don't want to make excuses for anyone, but he did have a broken hand and rib in his last fight, otherwise I think this would be a title fight. 

My pick: Brian Bowles. Again the odds are great on Bowles, the public loves Faber, but this is a basically even fight, so you have to take the odds.

Martin Kampmann (+115) vs. Rick Story (-145) 
This is a very close fight that could go many different ways, and almost no outcome is unfathomable. Because of the unpredictable nature of this match-up it's not the strongest betting opportunity. Over all I think Kampmann has learned his lesson in how to deal with wrestlers and has a great standup arsenal that chops opponents down like trees. While Story on the other hand is looking for physical direct pressure until an opening is presented, it's a very deflating process for his opponents. It's the style that has beaten Kampmann and tomorrow night we'll all find out if Martin's learned his lesson or who know maybe Story will look to keep it on the feet trying to prove his last fight was a fluke.  Either way it comes down to will and sticking with a good game plan, which means it's a coin toss for me. I really like Kampmann's attitude and style so I'll put a very small bet on his side.

My pick: Kampmann.

Kyle Kingsbury (-150) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+120)
How can you not like a fighter like Bonnar. He had a couple of tough losses in 2009, but came back strong in 2010 and looked like the American Psycho of old.  He's a very well round and big 205'r with a great gas tank, and I think that last item will be the difference in this fight.  Kingsbury might be a little faster and a little stronger, but his heavily muscled physique causes him to fade after round one and you can't fade against someone with the experience and tenacity of Bonnar.  Stephan might be the only one who thinks he could ever find his way to a title shot, but that belief will be enough motivation for him to push aside young guns like Kyle. 

My pick: Stephan Bonnar

Miguel Torres (-340) over Nick Pace (+260)
Far too big of a step up in competition for Pace, unless of course he proves us all wrong. Torres should pick him apart.

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Junior Dos Santos KO victory over Velasquez

Juniour Dos Santos KO of Cain Velasquez 

After 4 hours of excellent fights on Facebook I was very ready for a great heavyweight battle.  Dos Santos had other ideas. One minute and four seconds into the fight it was over! Time for endless ads and six replays of the entire fight. It was a bit of a let down, but Junior left no question about who the champion is.

Junior dicsussed in the post fight interview a knee injury that put a fire under his ass to end the fight as quickly as possible. The bet on Dos Santos to win (+150) was a good pay off and the anchor bet for my bet slip

The other underdog payoffs came from Alex "Bruce-LeRoy" Caceres (+230) who put on a very athletic and well round preformance against a past champion and Darren Uyenoyama (+300) who displayed a very sticky ground game to upset Kid Yomamoto.

You Wanna Make a BET............

Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos Odds

Cain Velasquez (-165 at BetOnline) vs Junior Dos Santos (+150 at Bodog)

Alright Fight Fans! This is set to be the best heavyweight battle in the history of the UFC. Two unbeaten forces of destruction squaring off for a world title. If you're not a UFC fan yet this one should do it.

Lets get to the betting odds for this fight and how it could pay out. The betting lines for this fight opened up close to even and have drifted apart ever since. In the last week the gap has widened with Cain Velazquez odds climbing to the point of nearly a 2 to 1 favorite at some books. Of course on the other side the odds for Junior Dos Santos are starting to look like a bargain at 1.5 to 1. The match is basically even, but the odds are showing the typical support for a defending champion.

Cain Velasquez's greatest strength is his wrestling, followed by his quick boxing oriented stand up. Both his takedowns and boxing require him to move a little more "inside the box" to be effective. He's shown a tremendous chin, only being staggered once. The most similar fighter he has faced in the UFC was Cheick Congo who uses a Muy Thai striking style and has similar size and reach. Cain was able to work through Cheick's stand up and get him to the ground where he could provide a solid drumming.

The key to winning for Cain is to close the distance and wear on Dos Santos until he can get it to the ground and work him over.  Velasquez does have the power and speed to end the fight on the feet, but the best game plan would be to take it where he has the best chance to control the action.

Junior Dos Santos is the most devastating power puncher in the UFC. His base style is boxing crossed with a bit of Muy Thai.  We haven't seen much of him on the ground, but we do know that his take down defense is 83% and has spent less than 30 seconds on his back in the UFC. Junior has been able to keep his opponents at bay with strong jabs and quick left hooks. Then comes the killer, his uppercut is plain frightening. His footwork and patience have provided him with some spectacular KO's while keeping him from taking much if any damage in his bouts.

The key to winning for Junior is patience and movement. Cain will be pressing the action trying to move inside looking for straight rights and takedowns. The change in levels when Cain moves for a take down will be when Junior looks to unleash an uppercut.  Using his jab and occasional kick to keep Cain outside will make for a long night and with Five 5 minute rounds, not even Velasquez's iron chin can handle that kind of abuse.

It's going to be a great war of will and power.

Prediction: Junior Dos Santos via TKO rd 4
Bets:  Junior Dos Santos $200 to win $300 (+150 at Bodog)
          Over 2.5 rounds   $150 to win $300 (+200 at BetOnline)

You Wanna Make a BET............

BJ Penn vs Nick Diaz Betting Odds for UFC 137

BJ Penn (-140) vs Nick Diaz (+120) at UFC 137 Weigh-Ins

This is the type of fight that I like to see the weigh-in before I make a pick. BJ Penn went from buddy to bully yesterday.  I don't care why he did it, it fired both of them up and they both need animosity to fight at their best.  I Think Diaz was suprised and will be more affected. He also be more likely to fall into BJ's fight plan.

In several interviews Nick guessed at BJ's fight strategy. "He'll come with the right hand and look to clinch and take it to the ground." In terms of striking BJ has a speed and technical advantage, while Nick has reach and efficiency. Both have great chins and enough power to do real damage - BJ has more one punch power, but it's close to sixes.

If BJ does take it to the ground he's got a significant advantage in top control. Nick has an excellent guard and won't be submitted but BJ would rack up sufficient points to take a decision.  If Penn can out wrestle someone like Jon Fitch, he can control Diaz on the ground. The question is will that be Penn's strategy or does he want to try to win on his feet. I see this as BJ's fight to control the answer to his strategy will be revealed in 12 hours.

The best news is that these two are coming to fight and the dash of anger thrown in last night can only make this a better fight for us all.

Pick:  BJ Penn via Decision
Bets:  Penn to win $140 to win $100 (-140 at BetOnline)
          Over 2.5 rounds $210 to winn $100 (-220 at BetOnline)

You Wanna Make a BET............

Draftday.com Makes Huge Splash in Legal Sports Betting

A few gentlemen from the very successful poker training site Cardrunners.com came up with a brilliant and legal (USA and CAN) avenue for betting on major sports leagues like the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB. The venue at Draftday.com is a mix of fantasy leagues and sit-n-go tournaments. In short you select a league, choose how much you want to wager ($5 - $200), and how many people you want to play against (1-200) and then draft your team.  I signed up for an account and had money deposited through Paypal within 5 minutes. It's a very simple and clean software and the community is exploding daily.

On top of "Free Leagues" and "Money Leagues" they also have a Perfect Line Up contest with weekly winners and an end of season top prize of $1,000,000!! There are so many benefits to this style of sit-n-go fantasy line up contest. Injuries will never again end your season. You can also create your own leagues (for money!) or play the public rubes.  If you're a sportsbetting freak like me this is a very fun and competitive way to play and make some cash.
You wanna make a bet....

UFC 135 Betting Odds and Analysis

Jones opened as a -305 favorite, but his price has only increased as sportsbooks adjust the lines to account for his unwavering support. The 24-year old champion is currently at -550, with Jackson coming back at +400.

“It showed us how much hype Jon Jones really has,” said MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas. “And it could be legitimate, but Quinton Jackson is not going to sit where he’s at now against anyone else in the light heavyweight division - no way, not close.”

Rampage has stirred up a slew of pre-fight controversy by calling out Jones for being “fake” and accusing him of spying on his training camp. Oftentimes, that kind of promotion prompts more tickets being printed on the underdog.

But it hasn’t happened here, somewhat to the surprise of oddsmakers. Jackson is usually a public favorite and one of the most recognizable fighters in the UFC. He’s erased concerns about a lack of motivation for this fight by moving into the MusclePharm Gym in Denver, where UFC 135 will take place Saturday, so he can train more often and acclimate himself to the infamous mile-high altitude.  

I think he does have a legit shot. The guy has an experience edge and he’s got the power. It’s definitely going to be the toughest test Jon Jones has ever had.

Experience typically plays less of a role in MMA oddsmaking than some believe. But that changes in one instance - a five-round championship fight.

Jones has crushed everyone in his way and hasn’t even been forced to go a full three rounds in the last two and a half years. Jackson has two five-round championship affairs on his résumé, going 1-1 in those bouts.

If Jones doesn’t finish him in the first few rounds, then you never know, Jackson has shown he can go five rounds, especially if he’s serious about it.

Jones is also returning from a minor hand injury, but it only kept him out a month longer than anticipated. He initially sought surgery but multiple doctors advised against it.  The injury likely won't play any role at UFC 135 and mentioned that it had no effect on posting the lines.

While many see the odds as out of hand (UFC President Dana White called Rampage’s hefty underdog status “absurd” to a group of reporters Wednesday), it’s difficult to justify a shot on Rampage. Aside from experience, Jones has most of the other conceivable advantages.

If you really want to be invested in this fight your best opportunity lies with a prop bet. There are a couple of different options that should become available close to fight night. Look for either a knockout finish, the fight to end within the distance, or a bet on the ‘under’ for rounds whether it is 3.5 or 4.5 rounds. I don’t expect this fight will go the distance and a TKO/KO is the most likely result, the payout on these options won’t be huge, but they will be better than a bet on Jones and less risky than one on Rampage.


Other UFC 135 picks

Matt Hughes (+370) vs. Josh Koscheck (-470)

This is another one to stay away from. Go with Koscheck if action is a must, but it’s dangerous to lay that high of a price with a fighter coming back early from a severe injury.

Pick: Koscheck

Nate Diaz (-260) vs. Takanori Gomi (+210)

If Diaz makes the mistake of playing Gomi’s game, which is exchanging strikes, he could very well lose his third straight. It’s a rather likely scenario.

Pick: Gomi

Travis Browne (-365) vs. Rob Broughton (+295)

Browne deserves a tougher opponent and he’ll prove it Saturday night.

Pick: Browne

Ben Rothwell (-345) vs. Mark Hunt (+275)

Mark Hunt’s only MMA win in the last five years came against Chris Tuchscherer. Enough said.

Pick: Rothwell

Tony Ferguson (-345) vs. Aaron Riley (+275)

Ferugson’s hands are going to drop Riley early.

Pick: Ferguson

Nick Ring (+140) vs. Tim Boetsch (-170)

In the most competitive fight of the night, Boetsch should be able to grind out a decision. A lot depends on Ring’s takedown defense, so proceed with caution.

Pick: Boetsch

Junior Assuncao (-120) vs. Eddie Yagin (-110)

“The Filipino Phenom” is one of the best bets on the card. Yagin has the skills to make a dent in the UFC’s bantamweight division.

Pick: Yagin
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UFC 132 Faber vs Cruz Betting Odds and Preview

It’s not too often that the “little” guys get the top billing on a UFC card, but that’s the case for Saturday night’s UFC 132 at MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas when the headline fight is a bantamweight championship bout between Dominick Cruz and Urijah Faber. The original featured match of UFC 132 was set to be a rematch of B.J. Penn and Jon Fitch, but both were forced to withdraw because of injuries. UFC 132 also will feature headline matchups between Tito Ortiz and Ryan Bader as well as Wanderlei Silva and Chris Leben.

Cruz (17-1) is the champion … but then again so is Faber (25-4); the latter is a former WEC featherweight king. Faber and Cruz have met before, in 2007, with Faber submitting Cruz with a one-armed guillotine choke in just 98 seconds to successfully defend his WEC featherweight title. And while Faber won his next three fights after that, he then lost three times in his next five fights, twice to Mike Thomas Brown and once to Jose Aldo. So he then moved to bantamweight (135 pounds) and has been strong in two fights in the class, beating Takeya Mizugaki by technical submission last November and then outpointing Eddie Wineland in both fighters' UFC debuts in March.

Cruz, meanwhile, only has the one loss to Faber on his resume. He hasn’t lost since becoming a bantamweight, winning the WEC title by beating Brian Bowles in March 2010 and defending the belt twice since with victories over Joseph Benavidez in August and Scotty Jorgensen in December. When the WEC was merged into the UFC roster, Cruz became the first-ever UFC bantamweight champ. Now he is regarded as a top pound-for-pound fighter.

These two simply don’t like each other. It goes back to a perceived slight before that 2007 bout.

Back then Cruz was essentially an unknown fighter and wasn’t a part of the marketing materials for the show – thus he wasn’t included on the event poster for WEC 26. And during an autograph session, Cruz laughingly signed his name over Faber’s face. Needless to say Faber then took out his revenge with the first-round victory. The fighters’ feud has only grown since and escalated when Faber beat Wineland at UFC 128 and called out Cruz from the octagon.

“I have a hard time being enemies with people,” Faber said in a lead-up media call for UFC 132. “Dominick has made it easy; he’s got an interesting combo of throwing himself pity parties and feeling sorry for himself, but also giving himself a lot of credit for little things. Can he handle another loss and be cool?”

The line at Bodog on this fight opened with Cruz as the -130 favorite and Faber at even money. However, that line has dropped to -115 on both fighters despite Cruz taking nearly 75 percent of the moneyline action. Cruz is 5-0 in his career as the Bodog favorite, while Faber is 0-1 as an underdog. A little more than 56 percent of parlays are still active on this bout.

The other top fight figures to be between middleweights Silva, the former Pride Fighting Championships titleholder, and Leben, a participant in Season 1 of “The Ultimate Fighter.” These two requested a fight and called each other out for nearly a year before UFC officials finally scheduled the co-main event of the UFC 132 card. It’s Silva’s first fight since February 2010 because of a knee injury.

Of all the main event fights on the card, Silva-Leben is drawing the most even action with Silva getting a slight edge at about 52 percent on the moneyline. He opened at -185 but has been bet up to -200. Leben opened at +155 and is now +160. Approximately 59 percent of parlays are still live on this fight.

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