Betting Odds: Moneyline to Probability Conversion

By Paul Wednesday, February 28, 2007
This table shows the breakdown of an offered moneyline and its breakeven probability. Maybe you're saying um...OK...what the hell does that mean? Everyone wants to know how big of a favorite is Timmay at say +300? One way to look at it is simply to say if you bet 100 to win 300 he's a 3:1 favorite, but for many of us that still doesn't equal a recognizeable number. Instead, a lot of us like to see percentages, what's his chance of winning, and how often do I have to be to right to break even. Well here you go:


Moneyline on Favorite% ProbabilityMoneyline on Underdog% Probability
-11052.38+11047.62
-12054.55+12045.45
-13056.52+13043.48
-14058.33+14041.67
-15060.00+15040.00
-16061.54+16038.46
-17062.96+17037.04
-18064.29+18035.71
-19065.52+19034.48
-20066.67+20033.33
-21067.74+21032.26
-22068.75+22031.25
-23069.70+23030.30
-24070.59+24029.41
-25071.43+25028.57
-26072.22+26027.78
-27072.97+27027.03
-28073.68+28026.32
-29074.36+29025.64
-30075.00+30025.00
-31075.61+31024.39
-32076.19+32023.81
-33076.74+33023.26
-34077.27+34022.73
-35077.78+35022.22
-36078.26+36021.74
-37078.72+37021.28
-38079.17+38020.83
-39079.59+39020.41
-40080.00+40020.00

To calculate this for any odds simply take the amount you risk divided by the total amount on the table (what you risk + what you win) times 100.

So for a $100 bet at +300 on Timmay you have: 100/(300+100)*100= 25% chance of winning

For a $100 bet on a favorite at -200 you get: 100/(100+50))*100= 66.7% chance of winning

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

2 comments to ''Betting Odds: Moneyline to Probability Conversion"

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  1. The initial example is backwards you bet 100 to win 300 if Timmay is + 300

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  2. thanks Willy, a little dyslexia never hurt anyone right?

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