TUF 5 Finale Betting Odds and Picks

By Paul Friday, June 22, 2007
Desert Dog here, back for another installment of my betting picks. The TUF 5 Finale is not providing much in the way of betting values. There are several lopsided bouts including the return of the little boiled lobster Allen Berube. Why is this sack of taters fighting?

Well with odds like these bettors are forced to look to the dogs to find any sort of value. Currently I’m looking at three matchups and probably only two bets unless there is some favorable movement in the odds.

The “Smart Bets” for the TUF 5 Finale:

Main Card Picks:
BJ Penn -340 No Action unless odds hit -275
Manny G. -115 (Bet $100 to win $86.96)
Roger Huerta -850 No Action

Prelim Picks:
JoeLauzon -650 No Action
Cole Miller -600 No Action
Gray Maynard -550 No Action
Leonard Garcia -800 No Action
Brian Geraghty +400 (Bet $100 to win $400)
Thales Leites -600 No Action

As always, if you are going to bet, only play with what you are willing to lose. I’ve switched the odds posted here to Bodog.com because they have been coming out earlier and they have provided the simplest options for moving money in and out of your account.

BJ Penn (-340) vs Jens Pulver (+270)
In my mind the question is how can Pulver win....BJ has never been knocked out (no I don't count the Hughes TKO) his chin is great; this really cuts into Pulver's odds for finishing this fight on the feet (under 10%). On the other side, Jens is facing a heavy handed opponent and he has been TKO'd 5 times including his most recent loss to Lauzon. Jen's is a collegiate wrestler, but his only option on the ground is escape or defend. BJ could fade as he has in the past, but if BJ's current weight is any indication, his conditioning is good to go. So in my mind the only two possible ways for Jens to win are TKO stoppage (<10%) or great takedown defense and out working Penn on the feet (10-15%).

A bet on Pulver at the current best odds (+290) would only have value if you believe he will win more than 26% of the time. I just don't see Jens pulling this one out. My straight call for the fight is BJ via submission. With Penn's best odds at -300 he would need to win more than 75% of the time....I think it's on the edge of having value. I'll drop a bet on BJ if the odds drop down to -275. BJ via Submission.

Manny Gamburyan (-115) vs Nathan Diaz (-115)
This is a pretty nice match up for the finale. There’s the family intrigue, there’s the striking difference in physical packaging, and there’s two fighters who go 100% to the end.

Manny has the advantage in overall aggression and explosive strength. On the ground Manny is technically very sound and active as well. In the stand up reach can’t be taught; Manny has powerful striking but Diaz will likely be able to utilize his reach and out work his opponent. I don’t see Diaz pulling out a TKO, but if the fight doesn’t go to the ground much he could easily pull a decision.

However, when two technical fighters hit the ground there’s typically a lot of transitions, reversals, etc…This can make for difficult scoring if it goes to the cards and judges tend to award more for takedowns than submission attempts. I don’t think either one will pull off a submission and in the end Manny’s aggression and takedowns will give him the decision.

Roger Huerta -850 vs Doug Evans +525
I’m glad to see Huerta fighting again so soon, but it seems like he should have an opponent someone has heard of. The unbeaten (5-0) Evans is likely not ready for this level of competition. The fight makers must have run out of names to draw from for this finale. I know many people believe that every fighter has a punchers chance or that anything can happen. They’re right but the odds of a punch ending a LW fight are much less than in other divisions. Technique, stamina, and aggression rule the LW division and Huerta posses to many of those attributes to drop this fight. An easy pick for this fight, but no value on either side. Huerta via TKO

Thales Leites -600 vs Floyd Sword +400
Sword is another UFC newcomer welcomed with a less than ideal matchup. Although Sword has a good record at 9-2 with most of his wins coming by way of submission, he finds himself looking across the ring at a much more accomplish BJJ fighter. Thales only loss came from the hands of the very fast and technical striker Martin Kampman. So unless sword has been hiding some serious stand up skills; he will like be controlled until the later rounds when Thales can finish the fight. Leites via submission.

Joseph Lauzon(-650) vs Brandon Melendez (+450)
Brandon’s weakness on the ground will again be exposed in this one sided fight. I don’t see any value on either side at these odds. Lauzon via TKO

Cole Miller (-600) vs Andy Wang (+400)

Cole should own this one but his strength is in his ground game and just how good is Wang on the ground? Good enough to hold a BJJ black belt, but with only one win by submission on his record, it’s not likely he can translate it into an Octagon win over a very savvy Cole Miller. Cole fights a smart fight, stays outside picking Wang apart until the final bell. Miller via Decision.

Gray Maynard (-550) vs Rob Emerson (+350)
Another one sided matchup with Emerson’s biggest weakness (takedown defense) falling right into the hands of the wrestling wizard Gray Maynard. No value on either side of these odds. Maynard via Decsion.

Leonard Garcia (-800) vs Allen Berube (+500)
I’m glad to see Garcia back so soon, but the UFC may as well have given him a sack of potatoes to beat on. This one isn’t worth my time.

Matt Wiman -600 vs Brian Geraghty +400
We didn’t get to see much of Brian Geraghty, but his strength as a wrestler and excellent BJJ could be enough to get him past Wiman’s early aggression. If Geraghty can take control of this fight on the ground it will easily go his way. In case you haven’t looked at his record he has 27 fights in the last 7 years and almost 60% of his wins are by way of sub. With odds of +400 he only needs to win a bit more than 20% of the time in this match up to have a positive expected value. In other words he’s my dog for the night….Geraghty via submission.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

3 comments to ''TUF 5 Finale Betting Odds and Picks"

  1. Patrick2:43 PM

    What do you think about the mercer/kimbo fight?

  2. Anonymous11:19 PM

    It was a shame that Manny dominated the first round and the beginning of the second round, only for him to lose the fight on his own by tapping out.

  3. Rodrigo6:12 AM

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