TUF 5 Finale Betting Odds: BJ Penn vs Jens Pulver

By Paul Wednesday, June 20, 2007
The TUF 5 Finale is when the top dog for the 155 tournament is decided but most people are focusing on the BJ vs Jens fight. I'm just as guilty as the rest of the public. So is there value in betting this fight? First the odds.....

BJ Penn Betting Odds (-300 Bodog), (-330 SportsBook), (-350 BetUS), (-360 BookMaker)
Jens Pulver Betting Odds (+290 BookMaker), (+260 SportsBook)(+250 BetUS), (+240 Bodog)

In my mind the question is how can Pulver win....BJ has never been knocked out (no I don't count the Hughes TKO) his chin is great; this really cuts into Pulver's odds for finishing this fight on the feet (under 10%). On the other side, Jens is facing a heavy handed opponent and he has been TKO'd 5 times including his most recent loss to Lauzon. Jen's is a collegiate wrestler, but his only option on the ground is escape or defend. BJ could fade as he has in the past, but if BJ's current weight is any indication, his conditioning is good to go. So in my mind the only two possible ways for Jens to win are TKO stoppage (<10%) or great takedown defense and out working Penn on the feet (10-15%).

A bet on Pulver at the current best odds (+290) would only have value if you believe he will win more than 26% of the time. I just don't see Jens pulling this one out. My straight call for the fight is BJ via submission. With Penn's best odds at -300 he would need to win more than 75% of the time....I think it's on the edge of having value. I'll drop a bet on BJ if the odds drop down to -260, otherwise I think I putting my money into the Manny vs Diaz fight.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

1 comment to ''TUF 5 Finale Betting Odds: BJ Penn vs Jens Pulver"

  1. I tend to agree with dessert dog's advice, however I have to give the nod to Pulver here. Everything says that BJ will beat him, but thats exactly what everyone thought the first time they fought, and just look how that turned out. Pulver knows this fight is do or die for him. After the loss to Lauzon he can't afford another dissappointing outing in the octagon. It was mentioned that Pulver was prone to being knocked out, but what was not mentioned is that he's never lost when the fight goes the distance and thats exacly what I see happening here. BJ takes the first round in typical BJ fashion and then gets out pointed the last two rounds for a Pulver split deccision victory.