UFN 10 Betting Odds and Picks

By Paul Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Well the UFC schedule for June may not be filled with title bouts but there are some exciting matchups coming and a few of those are coming in UNF10. Personally I’ve got my eye on the Fisher vs Stout rematch, Jon Fitch of course and I’m secretly hoping to the see Tamdan McCrory vs Pete Spratt….McCrory is my favorite dog pick for the night and it would be nice to see the action.

The Desert Dog Bets for UFN 10:

Main card picks:
Spencer Fisher -180 (Bet $100 win $55.56) (BookMaker)
Jon Fitch -320 (Bet $100 to win 31.25) (BookMaker)
Drew McFedries -125 (Bet $100 to win $80)
(BetUS)

Preliminary card picks:
Thiago Tavares +120 ($100 win $120) (Bodog)
Luigi Fioravanti -300 (No action)
Tamdan McCrory -145 (Bet $100 win $69) (SportsBook)
Nate Mohr -165 (No Action) (Bodog)

Gleison Tibau -450(No action)

The best values on this card are Tamdan McCrory and Thiago Tavares. Fisher and McFedries are on the edge in terms of value so watch your bet size with those. Jon Fitch has a real fight on his hands, but I’m willing to brave these odds for the 30% return. As always, if you are going to bet, only play with what you are willing to lose.

Main Card Bouts:

Spencer Fisher (-240) vs. Sam Stout (+200)
Last time around I was glued to the TV and thought Fisher had pulled out the win. The split decision wasn’t what either fighter wanted. Now we get to watch as they get after it again.

Stout returned to the TKO shows in Canada after dropping a fight to Kenny Florian. In the last year he’s tacked on two more wins including his first via submission (arm bar). I doubt this marks a new fight style for the “hands of stone”, but it does show he’s progressing on the ground. Stout looks as strong as ever and with we’ve seen he can take some serious punishment.

Spencer Fisher was one step away from being a title contender until he ran into the wild fists of Hermes Franca at UFN 8 in January. Now he’s looking for a solid win to point him back in the direction of the belt. His game plan in this fight will look a lot like the first meeting; there’s no need to change what works. The stand up game between these two may be a wash, but Fisher has the ability to get the fight to the ground and impose his will and sap Stout energy. I’m looking forward to another war of attrition.

This is a very tight match up, but with a slight advantage and the current odds my money is on Fisher to finish this one by TKO.

Jon Fitch (-320) vs. Roan Carneiro (+260)
Fitch has quietly notched 5 UFC wins bringing his streak to 12 straight victories. I’m not sure I can sum up this bout much better than Fitch did himself

“He [Carneiro] poses a serious threat as far as his size – he’s a big 170 pounder. Most of his fights were at 185. He’s a really good wrestler; I watched his Abu Dhabi matches, he has very good takedowns and very good takedown defense, and I’m pretty sure he’s extremely strong and athletic, so the biggest problem he poses for me is that I really don’t know if I’ll be able to physically impose my will on him. This will be something where I’m challenged to defeat him technically.”

I definitely believe Fitch has the technical prowess to finish Roan, he just has to watch out for the Anaconda – Roan’s favorite move – which he moves into very nicely from the clinch. This looks to be a very technical fight with a moderate chance of going to decision. This is where Fitch has to be careful, he can’t afford to appear that he is not in control while he seeks out a weakness to exploit.

My straight pick is a chalk bet on Fitch to take Carneiro’s back late in the fight ending it by submission. However, if the odds get too ridiculous (+320 or better) I’ll have to go with Roan to squeak out a decision.

Drew McFedries (-125) vs. Jordan Radev (-105)
Martin Kampman said it best after his fight with McFedries “That guy hits fuck’n hard man”. Drew’s punching power and aggression are his towering strengths, but his loss to Kampman left open the question what happens when he gets taken down. Drew has garnered a bit more attention in the Miletich camp after securing his UFC contract and with training focusing on his defense and ground game he looks to be making the moves for this fight. He will have a distinct reach and strength advantage. fortunately for Drew, Radev is not what you’d call a wizard on the ground.

Radev is a 5’7” fire plug from Bulgaria. His fighting base is in wrestling but he prefers to box until he can close the distance. As you would expect from a wrestler he has good take, but, I’m not sure with the size difference that he will have very effective takedowns in the clinch. When he does get the fight to the ground he seems a bit lost.

I see some good stand up exchanges early in the first round and then McFedries punching power will overwhelm Jordan late in the first or early in the second round. Another chalk bet on McFedries at -250 or better.

Preliminary Bouts:

Jason Black (-150) vs. Thiago Tavares (+120)
The undercard looks to be filled with characters from Freaks and Geeks. Jason Black is close to the top of the freak list. Black is another Miletich product and sports an impressive 22-2 record including 2 fights in Pride. He’s finished the majority of his fights via submission.

Thiago has been on a tear for the last 41/2 years putting together an impressive 15-0 record. All but 3 of his wins have come by way of submission. Hopefully this doesn’t spell boring.

This is another tight match up and whoever can gain and maintain ground control will likely walk away with a decision. The odds have me betting on Tavares by decision.

Luigi Fioravanti (-300) vs. Forrest Petz (+240)
Luigi looked very good in his last bout, Petz on the other hand…not so much. Fioravanti by submission. Value at -220 or better otherwise no action on this one.

Pete Spratt (+115) vs. Tamdan McCrory (-145)
Man at 6’4” 170 McCrory “The Barn Cat” looks like a flimsy toothpick, but his record (9-0) says he’s got some game. I compiled some video footage and got some info from one friend who saw him fight in person. His stand up looks pretty good and his takedowns, especially in the clinch, looked very good. He also looks to have a very aggressive style, finishing most of his fights via TKO.

Spratt’s experience and athleticism should prevail in this fight. But, Tamdan’s ridiculous reach advantage, snappy kicks, and general aggression could provide some real problems for Spratt. Spratt should win this fight, but McCrory has the tools to steal an upset and with the odds where they are the best value is a dog bet on “The Barn Cat”.

Nate Mohr (-145) vs. Luke Caudillo (+115)
Mohr’s Stand up looked very strong and crisp in his last fight with Kurt Pelligrino….right up until Kurt snagged a foot and tapped him out. In his last fight he was a short notice replacement, but showed he was ready to go.

Luke Caudillo is no slouch in the realm of stand up either. This should be another solid LW bout in the mold of Stout vs Fisher. I’m leaning toward Mohr simply because his technique and power look much more polished. The odds are providing a bit of value for a Mohr bet. I’m putting my money else where but if you’re a fan put your money behind him.

Mohr via decision

Gleison Tibau (-450) vs. Jeff Cox (+325)
Man where are all these 6’4” light weights coming from? Cox is a Cleveland cop and trains with Forrest Petz and others. He’s been fighting at 170 and now wants to become the “skini-me” of Randy Couture. Jeff has a very respectable submission game but it is very out classed against Gleison’s. The best shot Jeff has at a win is keeping the battle standing and using his reach.

I doubt that Gleison will let him get away with that for very long. Tiabu, who has also fought at 170, should be able to us his technically superior ground game to pull out a decision

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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