I Double Dog Bet You

By Paul Monday, August 20, 2007
There are a couple of dog bets on this card that if made together have some value. I don't think both of them will happen, but I do think at least one will and the odds are good enough to take both bets to lighten your exposure.

Don't take these as straight picks, this bet is based on two fighters being very over valued right now. The first is Roger Huerta, the second is Joe Stevenson. Both of these fighters have been put to the test several times and have also found great popularity. Most of the betting public is looking well past these two fights simply believing they are up against lesser competition. Suffice it to say I think the odds should be much closer on these two fights.

So without the usual fight analysis, here's the bet with the best lines. I'm splitting a single bet evenly between these two lines.

Kurt Pelligrino +260 (Sportsbook)
Alberto Crane +350 (Bodog)

This is definitely a risky bet so as always risk what you are willing to lose.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

4 comments to ''I Double Dog Bet You"

  1. Hey Dog,

    Always enjoy reading your picks. I agree with one of your choices, and that's Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino. He may not beat Stevenson, but it's amazing how many people are overlooking his potential to upset. In my opinion, Pellegrino has the better wrestling. Grappling, they're evenly matched. Striking goes to Stevenson, simply because Pellegrino's standup is almost nonexistent. I've heard from Pellegrino's teammate that he hits hard, but I haven't seen him display any striking in the UFC yet.

    Stevenson also has the GnP edge. If Pellegrino wins, I see a decision. I don't think Stevenson's unstoppable. He's lost to Neer and almost lost the TUF2 crown to Luke Cummo. Neither of these guys are necessarily A-class fighters. His last two victories, were against Yves and Dokonjonosuke. Yves is a standup guy, but he just got overpowered by Stevenson. Mishima's best days are behind him. Contrary to what people assume, Pellegrino's a stepup for Stevenson.

  2. As far as Huerta/Crane, it's quite simple. Huerta's gonna keep the fight standing and batter out a victory against the BJJ champ. I don't know how good Crane's wrestling is, but unless he's like a Manny or Sherk, I don't see him getting the takedown. Crane's too small to secure the TD and he's too short to bang with Huerta.

    Crane should drop to 145 after this fight.

  3. I haven't seen Crane in person and I'm a bit confused on his actual size. Some say he's 5'9" and other say he's 5'5". In the video I've seen he doesn't seem 5'5". as far as takedowns and wrestling skills against someone as aggressive as Huerta he's yet to be tested.

    Really Crane's coming in much like Huerta did, with an unbeaten record but no tests at this level or on this type of a stage. It's a stretch but after seeing how the last two fights went for Heurta he can be taken down (Garcia & Evans)someone just needs to catch him in a mistake. Not easy by any means but the books only give him a 22% chance of dropping this fight. It's on the edge but with this many fights behind him Huerta is due for a mistake.

  4. I'm basing much of my analysis on the guy's suggested height. If he is, indeed 5'9, Huerta's gonna have some problems...

    I'll probably abstain from the fight... I think it'll probably unfold along the lines of Edgar/Boceck and Franklin/Okami. Huerta's got the Octagon jitters out of the way, and his ability to bounce back in fights, is an admirable trait few fighters really possess. Even if Huerta gets taken down, I think he can hang with Crane enough to get back to his feet.