UFC 74 Betting Odds and Picks

By Paul Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Time has once again snuck up on me and I'm going to have to go very short on the bets and matchups for UFC 74. It's a card I'm dying to see, but I'm going to have to wait for 9 days. As my last post explained there are a few dogs I'm sniffing but, the double dog bet is definitely risky. So let's just lay down the lines and you all can play what you like.

Desert Dogs Smart Bets for UFC 74:

Main Card Bouts:
Randy Couture +120(Bet $100 to win $120.00) Bookmaker
Georges St. Pierre -220 (Bet $100 win $45.45) Bodog
Kurt Pelligrino +260 (Bet $100 win $260) SportsBook......This is 1/2 of the double dog bet.
Alberto Crane +350 (Bet $100 win $350) Bodog.............The other 1/2 of the double dog bet.
Kendall Grove -230 (Bet $100 win $43.78) BetUS

Preliminary Bouts:
Marcus Aurelio +100 (Bet $100 win $100.00) Bodog
Renato Sobral -210 No Action
Thales Leites -270 No Action
Frank Mir -165 (Bet $100 win $60.60) SportsBook

As always, if you are going to bet, only play with what you are willing to lose. The best value on this card is a chalk bet on GSP at -220. The best probability for an underdog win is with a bet on Randy Couture at +120 followed by the bet on Aurelio. The other two chalk bets on Mir and Grove will produce solid returns as well.

The Double dog bet is a single bet spilt between Pelligrino and Crane. This bet is a significant risk and is based on Pelligrino and Crane being undervalued. If I had to make straight picks in these fights I would go with the favorites, but the signals are there to say at least one of these two are due for a loss, so I'm in for a little risk. (Read for a more detailed explanation on this bet)

Main Card Bouts:
Randy Couture (+120) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (-125)
This is a pretty crazy match up and in the end I simply think Randy's experience and ability to mold game plans around any opponent will end with another huge victory for the legend. Read this for my complete write up on Couture vs Gonzaga. Couture via TKO.

Georges St. Pierre (-220)* vs. Josh Koscheck (+220)
Again, experience and well rounded abilities say St. Pierre should take home the win in this battle..... As long as long as he's got his head on straight. Complete write up on GSP vs Koscheck. GSP via tapout due to strikes.

Joe Stevenson (-260) vs. Kurt Pellegrino (+260)
Poor batman never gets any respect, Pellegrino's really got a technical, aggressive ground game that reminds me of chess match type of fighting you see with Jon Fitch. He's in against Stevenson's brute version of the ground game. Strength vs technique.....as BJ Penn says, technique is what allows the smaller opponent to find victory. Pellegrino via submission.

Roger Huerta (-400) vs. Alberto Gonzales Crane (+350)
Oh man this is a tough bet for me to make. I really like Huerta's style and ability to control every fight he's been in. Unfortunately, as I said earlier the odds and timing say he may be due to make a mistake. He's facing a fantastic BJJ fighter who comes in with an unbeaten record (much like Huerta did 2006) and a "King of the Cage" Lightweight Championship belt. So although he's unknown to most UFC fans he's for real. If Heurta makes a mistake this is the type of fighter who is technically able to take advantage of it and pull off a very surprising finish.
I want to reiterate that I'm only making this bet and the Pelligrino bet because they're so undervalued (22% chance for Crane and 28% for Pelligrino). In all likelihood only one of these upsets will happen, so I've split a single bet between the two. Ugh....Crane via submission.

Kendall Grove (-230) vs. Patrick Cote (+205)
Grove has the answer for everything Cote can offer in the ring. Cote is a relatively one dimensional fighter who continues to struggle with anyone that has a BJJ game or a good clinch game. Top this match up off with a very significant reach advantage for Grove and I think you can put a bow on this solid chalk bet. Grove via submission.

Preliminary Bouts:
Marcus Aurelio (+100) vs. Clay Guida (-115)
Captain Cave Man's overall record is 21-8 and he has a relentless brawling style that fans love to watch. Unfortunately, his two toughest tests in the ring resulted in losses. His most recent was tight and could be argued either way. His uber-aggressive style leaves him open to more technical fighters especially on the ground. Although he has significant experience on the mat he's not up to par with Aurelia.

Marcus Aurelio (14-4) who trains with American Top Team saw his toughest fights in Pride including 2 fights with Gomi. The first he finished with a submission the second he dropped a split decision. Aurelio's biggest knock is that he has been out for about 10 months, but aside from that he is a very sharp technical ground fighter who has seen a wide array of tough competition.....and beaten most of them. Aurelio via submission.

David Heath (+200) vs Renato "Babalu" Sobral (-205)
I've gotta say this fight really does nothing for me. I think Sobral is a character and still has amazing BJJ abilities but he's missed the boat after his losses to Liddell and "Sausage Tits" Lambert. Heath puts me to sleep his voice, his fighting, his......zzzzzzzz. Babalu via decision.

Antoni Hardonk (+170) vs. Frank Mir (-165)
This is the perfect match for Mir right now. He needs a win against someone who has a legitimate chance of knocking him out, but in the end offers no real challenge once the fight goes into his realm on the ground. There will likely be one or two close calls for Mir, but if he's in shape he takes this one home. At -165 this is a pretty decent chalk bet. Mir via Submission.

Ryan Jensen (+170) vs Thales Leites (-210)
Leites will contiue to fight his fight and completely donminate Jensen in the bout. Jensen has well rounded skills but in all aspects he is suprpasses by Thales. I do think Jensen will put in a good enough preformance to continue with the UFC whoever. Leites via TKO.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

8 comments to ''UFC 74 Betting Odds and Picks"

  1. Anonymous5:35 PM

    I love your picks. Watch the Gonzaga v. Werdum fight and you will see how the Couture fight will go down (I say Couture by UD, but you have the right winner).

    I would think twice about the Mir bet. He is also way overvalued. I would think about spreading some "double dog" risk to Hardonk.

  2. I would lean toward a Hardonk bet if the Odds were over +220-230 otherwise there's not enough coverage for split bet.

  3. Patrick10:03 PM

    DD, our picks have been polar opposites on the last few ufc's. Gonzaga will beat couture, im almost certain. Couture is one of the most overrated fighters in the UFC and will be exposed.

  4. Couture/GG's a tossup, no doubt. On one hand, I see Couture simply dominating GG from start to finish. On the other hand, I see GG overwhelming Couture in all aspects of the fight. This is the most anticipation I've felt for a fight.

  5. Pellegrino, Heath and Hardonk all have upset potential.

    If Antoni's learned to sprawl, Mir's in deep trouble. If you wager on Mir, you're probably wagering that it's gonna go the distance. I just can't see Mir finishing a fight, whatsoever.

    Babalu's a tough opponent on any given day. Until Lamb KOed him, he was bringing it. Again, a very tough fight to predict. We don't know what's the deal with Babalu right now, and Heath is still somewhat of an unknown. The only fight where we really learned something, was against Machida... but then Machida's an unknown as well, so he wasn't a good parameter to measure Heath's wrestling and striking. As far as I know, Machida's a phenom.

    There's a lot of hype surrounding Aurelio. I spoke to one of Din's training partners, and he said that Aurelio controls and outworks Din from start to finish, at AKA. Denis Kang also mentioned that when Aurelio's motivated, the guy's unstoppable. On the flipside, he looked terrible against Gomi 2 and Ishida. I just can't go by what people say about him outside the ring. Who knows? He may simply outclass Guida, as they're suggesting. Or, he may just be another Joe Riggs. Guida takes this, in my book.

  6. LOL -> "Sausage Tits" Lambert.

  7. Got anything left to say, "patrick"?

    It's mind boggling to me that people still underestimate Randy Couture. The man has built his legacy on defying the odds; he's the all-time king of the upset. He's not a fighter you should always bet on (there's no such thing IMO), but he IS a fighter you should never bet AGAINST.

    Like Dana White said, I gave up doubting Randy Couture a long time ago.

  8. Dog, are you gonna post your picks for Art of War 3?