WEC 29 Betting Odds and Fight Picks

By Paul Wednesday, August 01, 2007
WEC 29 – August 5th at the Hard Rock Hotel, Las Vegas, NV : This looks to be a solid card with two title fights on the line and one of the top Middleweights in the world stepping in front of a US crowd for the first time. Being free on Versus tops it all of quite nicely. The WEC betting odds I've listed are from Sportsbook.com, Bodog and Bookmaker will like also have their odds posted tonight or tomorrow.

Welterweight Title Fight
Brock Larson (-110) vs Carlos Condit (-120) (FIGHT VIDEO)
The Natural Born Killer Carlos Condit, 23 years-old, who holds a 20-4 record and is the current WEC Welterweight Champion, puts his title on the line against the number one contender, Brock Larson (21-1). These two always come to fight and the odds show this is a tight one.

Brock's background is wrestling but he has put together a tremendous BJJ submission game, that's proven to be a deadly combination. He also has a solid standup game with good power, but in many fights his reach limits him. His strength in this fight will be in the clinch and on the ground if he can gain position. His aggression on the ground is excellent. What he's got to watch out for is Condit's Muay Thai knees and outside standup.

Carlos Condit has beaten some very tough guys including Frank Trigg and most recently John Allessio. He wins with excellent takedown defense and fast accurate outside standup, and then surprisingly technical ground work which has often lead to submission wins. Although he is comfortable on his back, he won't want to be there in this fight. Condit will have his hands full defending against Brock's speedy takedowns and on the ground the real danger for Condit is not Brock's BJJ game but his ground and pound in this matchup.

They don't think it will go the distance, but I do, Condit via decision.

Middleweight Title
Joe Doerksen (+400) vs Paulo Filho (-550) (FIGHT VIDEO)
Brazilian Paulo Filho (14-0) makes his WEC debut against veteran Joe Doerksen for the vacant WEC Middleweight crown. Many had hoped Filho would be making his UFC debut soon but this is an inexpensive way to introduce him tho the US fan base and slap a belt around his waist. Although Doerksen is a very seasoned fighter, on a streak of seven victories, he has often stumbled against top tier competition. His one real advantage will be size, at 6'0" he will tower over Filho the 5'8" fireplug. Having fought in Pride most of his career Fihlo is not accustomed to weight cutting, or the cage for that matter.

Paulo Filho defines to tier, considered to be in the #3 Middleweight in the world. Filho stands unbeaten in his Pride and Pancrase career. He and Big Nog are what made the Brazilian Top Team so feared around the world. Fihlo's strength of relentless takedowns and amazing submission game plays right into Joe's weakness....getting subbed. It will be interesting to see how he deals with the strength of the larger US fighters in the future.

Fihlo is an easy pick, but not much value in the bet with a return of only 18 cents on the dollar. Fihlo via submission.

Sherron Leggett (+160) vs Jamie Varner(-200)
Most folks don't know much about Leggett but if you watched his last fight you saw an animal. His standup is sharp and powerful especially for a lightweight. Varner offers much more strength and experience than Sherron's last opponent but this should be another strong fight. Varner will have to get this fight to the ground to have any advantage. I have not seen leggett takedown or ground defense but at 13-3 this is not a new to him. The matchup, the records, and the odds all tell me this is my dog bet for the night. Leggett via TKO.

I'm running short on time so I won't be able to go over the rest of the card. I'll be back on Tuesday to look at more of the sweet UFC 74 card.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

12 comments to ''WEC 29 Betting Odds and Fight Picks"

  1. I was a bit confused by your analysis of Brock/Carlos. You mention how Carlos will have his hands full, and how Brock's GnP is dangerous, etc etc and then you just say Carlos is your pick... and most interesting, by decision...

    I haven't seen much of these guys' fights, but if there's a decision, Larson takes it. Larson's only threat, really, is Condit's knees.

    I was interested in hearing how you thought Condit would fare against Larson's wrestling, but you don't get into it at all. I also wanted to know how you think Condit's gonna take a decision, when he's gonna be on his back, 90% of the time. Haven't you seen Shields/Condit?

    Brock trains with Sherk. He's gonna have a very similar gameplan.

    Lastly, do you know who Condit trains with? Thx.

  2. Patrick4:28 PM

    Sherron leggett is at +200 now. I don't know much about the guy. Somebody convince me one way or another before i throw down a small bet

  3. Patrick9:22 PM

    And i've been looking into it more and more and i gotta go with larson on this one. Call it a gut instinct

  4. Well I got back earlier than expected and watched the fights this morning.

    The Condit win was obviously much quicker than I expexted, but it is a great example of a fighter who is always looking for a finish. I would have like to see 2 or 3 more rounds to see how each held up.

    Sorry I was a bit obtuse in my analysis. I really saw these two being able to counter each others strengths for a long drawn out battle, and Condit's ability to escape and put on a show in the standup to be the difference on the cards.

    In the Varner fight I felt that Varner had been struggling of late and would be more hesitant, which makes fighters with his style much more vulnerable in the standup...Varner was not hesitant and looked very powerful and confident.

    Fihlo put on a good show and now has a belt to solidify him in the US MMA scene. Doerkson really failed to use his reach to keep Fihlo off nor did he ever really look to be the aggressor. Fihlo finished up with some overhands and added his 2nd TKO to his record. Definitely not the finish expected.

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  6. Patrick11:07 AM

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    Condit trains with the FIT-NHB team in his hometown of Alburquerque. In preparation for this fight he has also been training with Chris Lytle at the Integrated Fighting Academy – specifically to work on his wrestling skills

  8. Patrick1:36 PM

    DD, can we get any early inside picks from you? Just mainly what you think about koscheck/st.pierre

  9. Patrick1:39 PM

    And the clay guida, aurelio fight. I don't know which way to go with that one

  10. Kos and St Pierre tommorrow

  11. Nice to see you justifying and reevaluating your picks after the event. And thanks for the background info on Condit. I'm not too impressed... I honestly don't think Lytle was a good representation of what to expect from a beast like Brock.

    That said, my pick was Condit as well, simply because he had beaten proven talent in the past, whereas Brock had taken out a bunch of strangers from Mars.

    I have to say though, I underestimated Brock's GnP ability. I really thought Carlos would neutralize Brock from the guard, but Brock was just rushing him with accurate bombs from the top. But of course, by doing that, you get a bit reckless and Condit was able to capitalize.

    PS: I'm with Patrick. I'd like to know your thoughts on Guida/Aurelio most. As for GSP/Kos, I'm quite confident about GSP's wrestling abilities, and I somehow doubt you'll disagree. ;)

  12. Patrick7:59 PM

    Ahhh. The GSP fans come out. The guys got a ton of talent but i don't know if he's mentally there. Even Dana agrees http://ufcmania.com/2007/06/04/ufc-quick-quote-white-questions-st-pierres-mental-ability-to-fight/

    But we'll see, i give st. pierre the advantage in this fight but i think this is going to be MUCH closer than people think.