UFC 77 Betting Odds: Rich Franklin vs Anderson Silva II

By Paul Thursday, September 27, 2007
They say styles make fights and true that might be, the mental state could make this fight. We've seen the scenario repeat over the last few years; the top fighters in the world (Hughes, Cro Cop, and Lidell for example) finally get crushed and suddenly they seem 10 years older, tentative, and start talking about how many fights are left in them. While others come through with relentless determination and self belief (Couture).

Now, Rich Franklin finds himself in this situation, he has found solid footing in the octagon again with wins over McDonald and the powerful Okami. So, is he ready? Has he returned to being the hungry Franklin who always found away to dominate his opponent? In Franklin vs Silva I, Rich was surprised by Silva's strength and knees from the clinch. The problem was that Silva capitalized on his advantage quickly and Rich's will to fight was broken before his nose.

I'm going to give Franklin the benefit of the doubt in this fight. He will be prepared not only physically but mentally. The construction of a solid game plan is a great foundation and he will focus on his strengths so that he can control the fight. In this match up his strengths are still his punching power but even more so his power on the ground. Speed wise his hands are slower than Silva's, but his power could be used to keep Silva from picking him apart without hesitation. Basically, he'll need to hurt Silva to give him a taste of uncertainty he suffered.

If Rich can slow up Silva's outside game it will set up his ability to make his presence on the ground known. Lutter, Martquart, and others have shown that Anderson can be taken down, of course they've also shown how dangerous he is on his back as well. That aside, Franklin will have to make this one look like his fight with David Loiseau. There's a chance that Rich may catch the Spider with a solid shot, but the most likely road to a win here is a long drawn-out battle of will and strategy.

Anderson Silva has many options in this fight and continues to be able to capitalize on even the smallest mistakes. Lutter was smartly controlling things on the ground in their fight when he moved to far forward in the full mount and was reversed, that was the beginning of the end in that one. Silva's best shot at win is to take advantage of Franklin's head movement (he ducks rights very well) with a knee or uppercut. If the fight goes to the ground obviously Silva is comfortable there as well, but up kicks and submission attempts won't win the fight. I think he will have to finish to win, if it goes the distance Franklin will have made it his fight.

The odds are tightening up a bit with the best odds for Franklin sitting at +165 (38% probability) and the best odds for Silva have come down to -185 (65% probability). I'd say the books have this one about right. I'm not going to pick a bet just yet on this one, I think both sides are fairly priced right now. I will say, If you're going to bet on Franklin I think this is as good as the odds will get. Even though he lost the last one, his popularity will carry plenty of cash to the betting windows. Silva's odds could get as good as -165....give it a few weeks if that is the direction you are leaning.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

3 comments to ''UFC 77 Betting Odds: Rich Franklin vs Anderson Silva II"

  1. Anderson's developed this aura of invincibility, through his stunning victories over Franklin, Marquardt and Lutter.

    When I see Silva fight, I don't see a guy who's unstoppable though. I see a guy, who capitalized on the opponent's mistakes. He did the right thing at the right time (ex: Upkick on Lutter).

    Franklin thought the clinch was his strength, so it's understandable that by the time he realized he should probably avoid it, it was too late. He got his nose rearranged in the second clinch. It's hard to convince a fighter, who's proven superior in the clinch against hundreds of sparring partners, that he should start thinking otherwise, in a matter of a few minutes, in front of several thousand people.

    He had a bad gameplan.

    If you've studied Muay Thai, the longer you remain in the clinch, the harder it is to alleviate the hold. By the time Rich realized it was hostile territory, it was too late.

    I've seen this fight more than a dozen times. After Rich gets dominated in the first clinch, he should've fled and started circling the Octagon so he can take a breather and regroup, but he just rests. He's absolutely boggled as to how he got wrecked like that, thus giving Silva another opportunity to clinch.

    Bad mistake, but it's understandable. Rich was considered as the best middleweight, before he got owned by Silva. As Rogan says, sometimes when a fighter, who's used to being the hammer, becomes a nail, it's a tough pill to swallow... especially in a matter of a minute (the length of the first clinch).

    Those are some factors to consider. My money's certainly on Franklin, but then again, he's also one of my favorite fighters so beware of my bias.

  2. Hamster, you make some great points. I Believe Franklin is a very smart fighter who can put together a winning game plan.

    This will be a great battle and I have to say I'm leaning toward a bet on Franklin.

    It's a nice value at +150 to 165.

  3. I've been researching this fight for a long time, and there are a lot of other points I've made with my pals at Zewkey. EzFlyer is also one of my favorite analysts, and he's disclosed to very few associoates, who his pick is gonna be - Franklin.

    With the recent broadcast of Inside MMA, where Barnett, Bas and Henderson all picked Anderson to beat Franklin, the odds for Frank have shot back up. I think the best odds you can get, is +190 @ 5Dimes right now, followed by +180 @ BOF. Bodog has him @ +155. I think Franklin's odds will average around +155, by fight time though.