UFC Fight Night 11, will air September 19 on Spike TV at 9 p.m. ET/PT. The main event between Kenny Florian and Din Thomas is a much better fight than the originally planned Fisher vs Thomas fight. There are a number of other fights that should be very tight matchups. No belts on the line at this event, but as always the UFN event will help to sure up the ranks of several divisions and provide some high quality entertainment.

Desert Dogs Smart Bets for ufn 11:

Main Card Bouts:
Din Thomas +140 (Bet $100 to win $140.00) SportsBook or BetUS
Thiago Alves -210 (Bet $100 win $47.62) Bookmaker
Terry Martin -200 (No Action)
Pete Sell +205 (Bet $100 win $205)

Preliminary Bouts:
Nate Diaz -255 No Action
Luke Cummo -140 No Action
Gray Maynard -285 No Action
Cole Miller -130 (Bet $100 win $76.32) Bookmaker
Jonathan Goulet -145 No Action

As always, if you are going to bet, only play with what you are willing to lose. The best value on this card is a chalk bet on Thiago Alves at -220. The bet Miller has value but this a very tight fight. The best probability for an underdog win is with a bet on Din Thomas at +140. A bet on Pete Sell is right on the edge of having value, anything below +200 and it’s probably not worth it. The bet on Terry Martin is also on that edge of having value. I do believe he will win this fight but, anything above -190 and he is overvalued.

Main Event:

Kenny Florian (-165) vs. Din Thomas (+140)
This fight is definitely going to determine who the next top LW contender is, providing the winner with a probable matchup against Joe Stevenson. Once the final verdict on Sherk comes down things will be a bit clearer.

Thomas continues to train with American Top Team. He holds a black belt in BJJ and his prowess on the ground shows with more than half of his wins coming via submission. Since his time on “The Ultimate Fighter 4“, he is unbeaten. Along with his strong BJJ, Din has also displayed great technical boxing skills. Before his fight with Clay Guida I was beginning to question if his heart was still in the game….His win over the relentless captain caveman impressed me. He knows where a win here will put him, and I believe he is prepared and we’ll all see his A game.

Kenny Florian, who also holds a black belt in BJJ, has continued to surprise and improve. Although his submission game and sharp elbows have been well know, his marked improvement in Muay Thai and especially leg kicks was very apparent in his last fight with Mishima. Florian’s conditioning and never say die attitude means no rest for any opponent.

Heart, conditioning and technique will determine the outcome of this one.

When it comes right down to it, I see this fight as a coin toss, and when one side of the coin is worth more than the other that’s where I’ll put my money. I don’t see a submission, maybe a TKO or cut, but most likely this fight will go to a decision.
Din Thomas via Decision

Terry Martin (-200) vs. Chris Leben (+170)
Has Couture been able to teach Leben anything about strategy and game planning? Or will we see another slugfest?

The very heavy handed Martin is on a tear right since returning to the UFC and dropping to middleweight. I’ve mentioned it before but, Terry Martin is a KO machine, just take a peek at his record. His ground game has not been tested for a while and a well conditioned Leben should look there first for an advantage. Martin wants this win and feels it will propel him into contention with the top 185 lb fighters…. And he’s right.

So is Leben in the greatest shape of his life? Tonight will tell a lot, but I would counter that an in shape Leben should be fighting at 170 lbs. If he chooses to stand up in this fight his iron chin will again be put to the test. His past training with Team Quest should have built a solid ground game and if he wants this win, he’ll have to take it there and control to score points. I don’t think he has the skills to finish from there but he could pull out a decision.

The likely scenario is a half a round of dancing around each other and then they move in for a big exchange, a few salid pops will push Leben’s buttons, throwing any game plan out the window and opening him up for another Mike Tyson looking KO. I won’t bet on this one unless I can get odds below -200
Terry Martin via KO

Pete Sell (+205) vs. Nate Quarry (-225)
With Mike Swick out, Pete Sell finds himself again in the spot light of a televised event, and you know he’s not going out easily. Sell is an emotional aggressive fighter, who has let his nerves and hunger get the better of him in the past. Pete’s bizarre group hug loss to Quarry two years ago told me nothing of what to expect in this fight. Overall he’s about even in standup with Quarry and holds a decent advantage on the ground. Two years has allowed for improvement in all aspects of his game and hopefully this fight will repair his confidence.
The question for Nate Quarry is “what has the last two years done for him?”. Recuperating from a very serious neck injury, inactivity, and removal from Team Quest, leaves many open questions for “The Rock” to answer. Standup was always his game in the past and he will likely continue on that road.

Nate Diaz (-255) vs. Junior Assuncao (+205)
This is an excellent test for both fighters. Nate will not have to worry about being overpowered in this fight and he will be able to make excellent use of his reach advantage. Assuncao is another strong submission fighter, but he still lacks a bit in the standup game. Often in these types of fights the submission skills cancel out and the fight is determined by standup aggression and points scored on the ground. Reach and better boxing skills should provide Diaz with the edge to pull out another win.
Diaz via Decision

Preliminary Matches:

Thiago Alves (-220) vs. Kuniyoshi Hironaka (+190)
Before getting suspended, Alves was gaining great confidence and showing some fantastic aggressive abilities in all parts of his game. Another ATT team meber, Alves is training with some great competition and that type of work will show again in this fight.

Hironaka is a very solid BJJ and GnP fighter but, he tends to play move too slowly, often not looking to control a fight but find an opening. In this matchup that style will be overwhelmed by the aggression and athleticism of Alves.
Alves via TKO

Dustin Hazelett (+115) vs. Jonathan Goulet (-145)
Tough fight to call, the polls have Goulet way ahead. Jonathan has fought his last four fights outside of the UFC and is looking to make things right after his loss to Josh Koscheck. He has very solid BJJ skills and even better hands.

Hazelett is training with Team Jorge Gurgel and of course is know for his submission abilities. But those abilities will not be that big of a factor in this fight. Strikes and takedowns will decide here and Dustin is likely not up to facing this level of competition. But you never know, it’s a fight and anything can happen.
Goulet via TKO

Leonard Garcia (100) vs. Cole Miller (-130)
This is a super close fight. Garcia impressed the world in his fight with Heurta and commands a lot of respect now for all aspects of his game. Cole holds as much experience as Garcia and has many of the same skills, there just packaged very differently. The only advantage I would give in this fight is to Millers height which will allow him to use those bony ass knees inside and solid overhand right on the outside.
Miller via Desicion

Luke Cummo (-140) vs. Edilberto de Oliveira (+110)
Kummo continues to improve under Serra and should be able to put win under his belt in the very interesting fight between two odd, but very skilled ground fighters. Somehow I see myself laughing out loud at some point during this fight.
Kummo via Decision

Gray Maynard (-285) vs. Joe Veres (+225)
Working with Randy Couture should help Gray to get his head on straight and become less of a one dimensional fighter. His wrestling is great and it seems that the UFC has thrown him a bit of a bone with the mostly unknown Veres. Of course some unknowns make a huge mark like the one like the ones Alexander Houston left on the faces of Jardine and Sakara. For now I’ll go with what is know pick Maynard. No bets though on a fight with little info or background.
Maynard via TKO

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

3 comments to ''Ultimate Fight Night 11 Betting Odds and Picks"

  1. Anonymous8:22 PM

    i agree with your selection of martin over leben, however, leben no longer trains with team quest, nor does randy for that matter. leben lives and trains in hawaii. also, i don't think leben would have much chance on the ground. at lhw, martin was able to outwrestle jason lambert for a round before losing. also, martin was able to handle chael sonnen's wrestling. both of those guys have better wrestling than leben.

  2. You're right about Leben, with the amount of time I've been spending away I some times pull old facts out of my brain. I don't think Leben really has a chance on the ground either, but his chances are even slimmer standing.

  3. Looking forward to the UFC 76 picks