UFN 12: Clay Guida vs Roger Huerta Odds Widen

By Paul Wednesday, November 28, 2007
The moneyline for this fight was set about 3 weeks ago around -115 for Huerta and -120 for Guida. Now the money has swung significantly in favor of Clay Guida with the odds now spread to -155 Guida / +125 Huerta (BetUS). I see solid value in a bet on Huerta at +115 on up.

Clay Guida, plain and simple, is 2/2 in the UFC. He shows tremendous pace and technical skill, BUT, he has not shown the ability to finish high level fighters. Guida should not be the favorite in this fight. Guida's last three fights went to decision and although the fights were exciting and fun to watch, but he never had his opponents in serious trouble. Clay has a solid submission game but it's not good enough to finish Huerta, his standup is also good but it's mostly defense and counter striking. Clay's biggest strength has been his wrestling and ability to avoid being controlled on the ground, That won't be enough to win against a skilled wrestler with good submission defense.

Roger Huerta may not have fought the names Clay has but he is 5-0 in the UFC and he finished 3 of those with TKO's. Huerta's biggest weakness in this fight is his submission game, by that I mean he's very unlikely to finish this one with anything other than his fists. His wrestling and ground defense should allow him to keep this fight where he wants it....on the feet. He has more than shown this ability in his last three fights.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

12 comments to ''UFN 12: Clay Guida vs Roger Huerta Odds Widen"

  1. Anonymous2:47 PM

    I hate to say it, but your dead wrong on this one. The reason the odds moved is because everyone knows Huerta is all hype and Guida is the real deal. Huerta has a shot, but not a good bet until about +215.

  2. I agree that Huerta has had a lot of hype behind him and I don't buy into all of it.

    But I do give him credit for his abilities and I believe they give him the edge over Guida.

    Guida is a mad man but he's just not shown that he's a finisher lately and I don't think his style lends itself to winning a decision over Roger.

  3. Dog, I enjoy your analysis because we tend to share similar picks. Sadly, this isn't one of 'em.

    Huerta's fought a couple solid UFC rookies, but rookies nonetheless, all of whom suffered Octagon shock.

    Guida's a seasoned vet, and he knows that this fight means the world to him.

    Huerta on the other hand is still in the process of maturing, and he doesn't yet know how to deal with a guy of Guida's caliber. In his mind, he's got it all figured out. In reality, he's got another thing coming.

    I see the argument in your selection of Roger, but the inability to finish fights, is not enough to convince me that Guida will falter against the Latin Romeo. Sherk, Tito and Karo haven't finished fights in ages, yet they're still among the elites in their respective weight class.

    I don't know where you got the impression that Roger's wrestling is on par with Guida's. If you could shed some light on Roger's wrestling background, I'd appreciate it a great deal. All I know is that he wrestled some in high school and eventually received a scholarship to college, but failed to make anything substantial out of it.

    Guida on the other hand, belonged in a wrestling team, which happened to win the junior collegiate championship.

    I definitely give Roger the standup edge, but this fight won't last on the feet for long. Guida's gonna bring the heat, and this time, Roger isn't gonna escape defeat with a gift TKO, resulting from Octagon shock a la Doug Evans.

    When I took Hamill over Bisping, my main concern was the political influence of protecting their European posterboy. Same logic applies here. I'm taking Guida, but I wouldn't be a whole lot surprised if Roger took a controversial split decision, or knowing Guida's luck with the judges, a unanimous for that matter...

  4. Patrick8:34 PM

    Agree with them. I think guida takes this one but if it goes to the judges, watch out for a screwjob.

  5. Please stop telling people to use BetUS.com I signed up for BetUS because of your site recommending it for UFC betting, and now I'm having tons of trouble getting my money back. Actually, everyone is having trouble getting their money back from these thieves. Check out http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk-2/betus-withdrawal-update-28171-p2.html The betting industry ranks betus as a C- site, and I think they're being nice. First thing BetUS does when you want your money is they tell you they need you to fax them your drivers license, and both sides of the credit card that you used. Then they try really hard not to give you your payout (and if you do get a payout there's a $50 withdrawal charge!!!). They also ask you for your password if you call them up. All this is absolutely ridiculous compared to the many sites out there that are legit. Sportsbook is another one with problems that you are recommending that people use. Check out 165 pages of forum posts complaining about Sportsbook at http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/26467-sportsbook-com-withdrawal-delay.html

  6. Surgeon,

    I'm sorry that you are having (had) withdrawl problems. I have to say that March through July of this year I heard a lot of complaints as well. BetUS and several other books have been scrambling to a reliable method/company to handle their payouts.

    Personally I have experienced a few delays but, never the odd set of questions you were asked. I've also never had those type of "deductions" from my payouts.

    Let me know if you find some resolution with this. Being secure with my money is very important to me.

  7. Thanks Desert Dog. Yes, if you click on make withdrawal, the only option is called "couriered checks" and no matter how much you want to withdraw, it automatically adds a $50 fee. A month ago it was $35 which is still terrible. I asked them about the $50 over the phone and they said "oh that's not our charge, that's the courier's charge."

    I have $440 in the account. I decided to put it all on Huerta to make it $990 total. (This fight should be a -115 -115 I think). If I win, then it'll be worth the aggrevation to try to get it. If I lose, I won't have to worry about their lousy site anymore. If I win, Hughes +200 looks pretty good, but not for all the money.

    I signed up for BetUS because I felt so strongly that Kongo shouldn't have been +300 against Cro Cop. I actually picked all 5 winners that night. I'm pretty sure Kongo will be heavyweight champion one day.

    www.myspace.com/robertwolfson that's me

  8. It's common knowledge that BS, screws people. It's happened to me, and literally every single person I know who has signed up with those guys.

    They have the worst customer service I've ever dealt with, and they don't offer free withdrawals.

    I only use BS for their parlays, which are merely offered by 5Dimes and perhaps WagerWeb. 5D is awesome, but they don't take credit cards. WagerWeb posts their odds on the day of the fight, and they only allowed you to parlay 2 hours before the PPV for UFC 78.

    That said, BS is also the only tab that offers Over/Unders, so I just try to make the best of the predicament...

  9. BetUS is a scam bookie, I as well can vouch for that.

  10. You all are making me a bit paranoid now. I've been with BetUS (among many others) for about a year now because they moved so stongly into the MMA market.

    I haven't had any unexpected problems getting my money from them, but I'm seriously considering pulling my reccomendation if this many people are not happy with them.

    Their odds, parlays and over/unders have always been nice but not if people don't feel secure with their money there.

    Bookmaker (A+ rated), Bodog (A rated) and 5 Dimes (A rated) may have to become my only reccomended books...and maybe WSEX I still play there too.

  11. infamoushamster6:45 AM

    Dog, you've probably never experienced any problems because I'm assuming you receive a bonus for your promotional efforts. BS isn't gonna mess with their marketers. Same as if I was an LA Times food critic and a restaurant knew who I was, they're gonna take extra measures to guarantee I leave on a pleasurable note. Heck, if you've ever gone to free movie screenings, you'll find a table full of popcorn and tape surrounding the best seats in the house. That stuff is for the critics, not the actual audience, or us little people. I hope I'm making a little sense here...

  12. haha, looks like most of you guys were wrong, i might be a little later on this one but i love it when people are proven wrong. Roger Huerta has proven he's the real deal and he proved his heart in this one. Don't under-estimate Roger next time and maybe you won't lose so much cash bro!