Main Card Bouts:
Roger Huerta -115 (Bet $100 win $86.96) Bodog
or -160 over 2 1/2 rounds (Bet $100 win $62.50) BetUS
Tommy Speer +120 (Bet $100 win $120) Bodog
Jared Rollins -105 (Bet $100 win $95.24) Bodog
George Sotiropoulos -500 No Action
Ben Saunders -260 (Bet $100 win $62.50) Bodog

Preliminary Bouts:
Richie Hightower -145 1/2 Bet (Bet $50 win $34.48) Bodog
Roman Mitichyan -500 No Action
Matt Arroyo -310 1/2 Bet (Bet $50 win $16.13) Bodog
Jonathan Goulet -500 No Action

As always, if you are going to bet, only play with what you are willing to lose. There aren't any standout values on this card except perhaps Tommy Speer at +120. Another relatively safe bet is to forgo picking a winner in Huerta vs Guida and take the over/under to go past 2.5 rounds.

Main Event:

Clay Guida (-115) vs. Roger Huerta (-115)
The question is can Guida win a decision over the Mexican poster boy? Yes, but I don't think he will.

Roger Huerta may not have fought the names Clay has, but he is 5-0 in the UFC and he finished three of those with TKO's. Huerta's biggest weakness in this fight is his submission game, by that I mean he's very unlikely to finish this one with anything other than his fists. His wrestling and ground defense should allow him to keep this fight where he wants it....on the feet...at least enough to maintain control. He has more than shown this ability in his last three fights. His takedown defense did seem exposed while fighting Evans, but he adjusted and poured on the aggression.

Clay Guida, plain and simple, is 2/2 in the UFC. He shows tremendous pace and technical skill, BUT, he has not shown the ability to finish high level fighters. Guida's last three fights went to decision and although the fights were exciting and fun to watch, he never put it away. Clay has a solid submission game but it's not good enough to finish Huerta, his standup is also good but it's mostly defense and counter striking. Clay's biggest strength has been his wrestling and ability to avoid being controlled on the ground. That won't be enough to win against a skilled wrestler with good submission defense and excellent scrambling. Guida will push for ground control and leave all of his relentless energy in the ring as well ,it could get the job done but I just have a feeling on this one. The stage is set for a great 3 round battle for control.

Current odds have this one as a "Pick 'em" fight, which is right on the money. I placed a bet when Heurta's odds hit +125, but at this Price it's up to you. Over all the odds are very high that this fight will go the distance (-160 over 2 1/2 rounds) this might be your best value if you don't want to make a pick. Huerta via decision.

Main card (televised):

Mac Danzig (-150) vs. Tommy Speer (+120)
Hughes probably hit the nail on the head "skill vs power". The one advantage I see building on the side of Speer is continuing to train with Hughes. I doubt he's a submission specialist by now but this amount of time in Matt's camp should have provided him with some solid defense against Danzig's submission quiver. Danzig's best shot at a win is a submission, while Farmboy's best shot is by TKO. If this goes to decision it could come down to the final round, Danzig is hoping Tommy will tire and make mistakes, but dealing with a fighter this much stronger for the first two rounds could leave him unable to take advantage of any errors.

I think Speer may be the young new Matt Hughes protege and pulling out this win and contract will mean more face time for Hughes as a trainer. It may sound odd but having a motivated Hughes training Tommy is the edge in this fight. Speer via decision.

Jared Rollins (-105) vs. John “War Machine” Koppenhaver (-125)
Another close fight Jared Rollins holds a slight strength advantage but he may be worried that beating the crap out of the war machine will just lead to another upper decker. Damn these kids got bored fast. Rollins has great BJJ training and experience including a Pride fight. There's some question about his chin, but I don't think that comes into play in this fight. Overall he has a slight edge on the ground where is this fight is going to be often.

John has been through some very good training camps as well and has put together a very solid game in the cage. His biggest weakness still seems to be mental, his confidence is so up and down it makes me very nervous. He looked great against Speer, until he'd spent his load and got bull dozed. It looked like both physical and mental failure. I don't think he'll be able to catch J-Roc in an early sub and as the fight goes on look to him to fade. J-Roc via submission.

George Sotiropoulos (-500) vs. Billy Miles (+300)
Billy "please don't hit me" miles looked lackluster at best on the show. George's skill and composure in the cage will easily translate into an early submission victory. The odds do not provide enough value for a bet here. Sotiropoulos vis Sub.

Ben Saunders (-260) vs. Dan Barrera (+200)

This rematch from the show is actually intriguing simply because of the characters. Ben Saunders the very skilled Jeet Kune Do practitioner and all around goof ball is faced again with the ADD, god fearing, loon Barrera. I don't see this fight going much differently simply because Dan is very inexperienced and one dimensional...he punches...that's about it. Ben is very well rounded, healthy and knows what he's facing. It adds up to a relatively easy pick, unfortunately it's right on the edge for value. I'd prefer to get a return of more than 40%, but I'm placing a bet for the sake of action. Saunders via submission.

Under card (May not be broadcast):

Richie Hightower (-145) vs. Troy “Rude Boy” Mandaloniz (+115)

Hightower, annoying as he may be, has a much more well round ed game than Troy. If Richie stick to a solid game plan of getting the fight to the ground and working subs he has a very good chance of pulling out a win. However, if he decides to make it a stand up battle he'll eventually get knicked. I'm giving Richie the benefit of the doubt on this one and I'm putting a half bet on him. Hightower via submission.

Matt Arroyo (-310) vs. John Kolosci (+250)

This match up again seems like strength vs skill. Unfortunately for John if he gets the fight to the ground he's in trouble whether he's on the top or the bottom. Arroyo will be looking to showcase his skills and make up for dropping from the semifinals. The huge difference in skill levels will shine brightly in this fight. It's not a great value above -300 but I'm adding another half bet. Arroyo via Submission.

Roman Mitichyan (-500) vs. Dorian Price (+300)
This one's is all about the odds.
Mitichyan is the favorite in this fight due to his sick judo skills, submission experience, and general ability to curse, BUT come on an 80 % chance to win?! Dorian's record is decent he's got a very solid submission game himself (90 % of his wins) and he'll be sporting a significant reach advantage to go along with his solid striking and kicks. Uhg, I feel that Dorian should be around +200, but I'm not convinced that this is his night. The odds say make a bet on Price but my gut says NO. Mitichyan via sub.

Jonathan Goulet (-500) vs. Paul Georgieff (+300)
To be honest I know almost nothing about Georgieff. He didn't look to good on the show and as soon as he lost he basically vanished from the series except for a few blurbs about other fighters. Goulet has been on a roller coaster rider in the UFC, but he's is at a much higher skill and experience level than Paul. The odds are too heavy for a bet, but the pick is easy. Goulet via TKO.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

4 comments to ''TUF 6 Finale: Fight Card and Betting Odds"

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  1. Jared Rollins didn't look good at all on the show. He was tenative and I wasn't impressed at all. I see Warmachine as the favorite here at about 55-57% chance to win. Pinnacle has 1.971 on Warmachine which has good value in my opinion.

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  2. That is a good value at Pinni. I don't think either fighter showed their abilities on the show. both of these guys have very good ground games.

    I just think warmachine is mentally young, and in a fight that on a big stage and likely to go the distance, I see him fading. If he comes out guns blazing and uses his edge on the feet he'll have a great shot. But I don't think this will be on the feet much.

    I think it will be a 3 round battle for ground control and warmachine is probable to fade in that type of a fight.

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  3. Dog,

    I basically share the same picks, except I have Koppenhaver and Guida.

    I highly doubt Tommy gets subbed. Tapping out, is like rocket science to that guy. I wish BS would load up OVER/UNDER on this fight, because most people think this one isn't going the distance, but I'd bet good money on OVER 1.5.

    As for Guida/Huerta, I've been doing a lil' extra research. I'm beginning to have second thoughts about my Guida pick. I just feel like Guida needs a perfect fight, to convince the judges that he deserves a split (I don't think Guida will ever win a unanimous decision).

    Also, I learned that Doug Evans is a better wrestler than Clay Guida... now it could be argued that Guida knows how to apply his wrestling to MMA, a bit better. Still, Huerta put out a pretty decent effort against Evans, and his scrambling was awesome. It's hard to keep Huerta on his back, and simply considering the fact that Huerta's gonna win the standup, ya can't help but feel judges with striking backgrounds - Cecil "1-800-BRIBE-ME" Peoples and Jeff "The Bat" Mullens - will inevitably give Huerta an early Christmas day gift decision.

    ReplyDelete
  4. For the punters using Pinnacle Sports there is a VERY good bet out for 29th December.

    Sokoudjou vs Machida

    2.34 on Sokoudjou which has alot of value. I give Sokoudjou 50-51% in that fight.

    ReplyDelete