The UFC commentators are saying that these may be the two best athletes in the UFC. True or not, these two are relentless and very skilled. But who has the upper hand, let’s break it down.
Josh Koscheck was a nationally acclaimed collegiate wrestler who moved to MMA in 2004. Most of his early finishes came by way of RNC, the classic win for great wrestlers who overwhelms people on the ground, with the opponent eventually giving up their back and getting choked out. Since his days on TUF Kos has worked steadily on his standup. Those skills were probably best displayed in his fight with Sanchez. Although he did not finish that fight he showed tight jabs and of course his favorite overhand rights. He was able to utilize good footwork and movement to score steadily through each round. The result of his more thoughtful game planning combined with facing a higher level of competition is that Josh has taking 3 of his lat 4 fights by decision.
So does Koscheck have the tools to finish a fighter of George St. Pierre’s caliber? N, GSP was just knocked out but it is very hard to compare these two fights. Koscheck has a great jab and the ever predictable overhand. On the ground he’s definitely outclassed in terms of BJJ, but he does have the skill to put George on his back. From there his only chance for a finish is to catch him quickly with a big punch or elbow. Once it’s on the ground only BJ is harder to keep down or control.
Much has been said about Koscheck’s amazing wrestling and takedowns, but in an interesting twist, Luke over at BloodyElbow.com posted a short piece about Who's a better wrestler . In short, the one person who took out Koscheck for a national wrestling title was later beaten in a grappling competition by none other than GSP.
St. Pierre has face many world class wrestlers/grapplers and handled their take down attempts well and put every one of them on their back. I think if Kos puts his mind to it he can get the takedown, but once it’s there he is going to have a hell of a time to keep it there. You never see GSP stuck in a bad position for any significant period of time. His loss to Hughes was the one time he made a mistake on his back and paid the price immediately. Turning the tables George is a finisher, with only 3 of his wins coming by decision. Since 2003 (Karo) he’s fought only top level competition and finished all of them in convincing fashion with the exception of BJ Penn.
So this is all just a long winded way to say that, Koscheck does not have the skill set to finish this fight nor is he proven against top competition. I do think this will be a hell of a fight and GSP must be on his game to handle Kos, but a prepared GSP should win this fight 80% of the time. The current odds (-210) from Bookmaker.com say St. Pierre should win about 68% of the time. If you buy my probabilities then a bet on GSP definitely has value.
The odds on in this fight have tightened up quite a bit over the last couple of weeks. I don’t think that trend will continue much longer. If you see GSP below -200 I would jump on it.
You wanna make a bet....
