UFC 80 Betting Odds: BJ Penn vs Joe Stevenson

By Paul Wednesday, January 02, 2008
This should be a great fight but not that great of a betting opportunity...Unless you believe Stevenson is going to catch BJ in a guillotine.

Best Odds: BJ Penn (-280 BetUS), Joe Stevenson (+235 Sportsbook)

Not to take too much away from Joe "Daddy" but, he's yet to face a top 10 Lightweight, his best move is a guillotine, and his stand up is one step above Matt Hughes.

In Joe's last fight with Pelligrino it was easy to see the holes in his game. Kurt opened up the fight picking Joe apart from the outside as he continually moved straight forward. Next, Kurt took Joe down repeatedly to control the first half of the fight. Of course during that first half Joe attempted 6 guilotines. In the second half, Kurt seemed to gas and Joe was able to turn the tide and applied some nice GnP. However, even with Kurt gassed Daddy was unable to get close to finishing the fight and on several occasions left himself wide open for some sloppy sub attempts by Pelligrino. Every fight is new, but Joe has been very very predictable in all of his past UFC fights.

BJ holds the advantage in all aspects of this match up except strength. Typically when two fighters with good ground skills are matched up we'll look to their stand up as a possible decider. Ignoring the standup for now, "The Prodigy" is very dangerous from any position if the fight hits the ground. Joes predictable guillotine attemptes could lead to one of BJ's counters like a head and arm choke variation, or whatever else BJ might have up his sleeve.

Now on to the stand up, with BJ's reach advantage and suprisingly heavy hands, Joe could take some serious damage while trying to figure out how to get Gumby Penn on his back. Penn's GnP is very good as well although he prefers to use it to soften opponents up for subs, he can pour it on for a finish as well. BJ's record and the faces of many of his opponents are testament enough to his striking abilities.

The only chance Stevenson has for a win is a decision gained by getting Penn down and controling him for the last two rounds. Of course there's always the 2% chance of being the first fighter to ever knock BJ out. A bet at -280 on Penn win net you a profit of 35.71%, not that exciting but it's better than investing in the stock market.

You Wanna Make a Bet.......
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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