Brock Lesnar vs Frank Mir Betting Odds and Analysis

By Paul Monday, January 28, 2008
In the beginning of January Lesnar was coming in as a fairly heavy favorite (-200) and I suggested that due to experience and the match up of skills Mir should not be the underdog in this fight and the time was ripe for a bet on Mir at +160 (Mir vs Lesnar original betting post). Now that some time has past and bettors with more MMA experience have started bringing in their money, the lines have evened up a fair bit.

Mir is still a slight dog at +120 and a bet on him now isn't as strong of a value, so lets look at the match up and see what the straight pick is.

Frank Mir, former Heavywight Champ, has been slowly working his way back into top form since his accident in 2004. Just as he was looking most confident and fit, he was quickly stopped by Brandon Vera at UFC 65. Nine months later he returned to face another very strong striker in Antonio Hardonk and finished him with a kimura in just over a minute. Mir has been in the cage with many larger and stronger opponents, but what we've never seen is how Mir deals with a great wrestler. Most of his opponents have not been trying to take him down pass his guard and pound him out. Ideally this style will feed into his BJJ game, where Mir is fantastic at taking advantage of any mistake. On the other hand, perhaps Brock will fit the mold of Matt Hughes or Randy Couture who used great wrestling and athleticism to overwhelm fighters of many styles.

Brock Lesnar as an MMA fighter is pretty much a complete unknown. His debut fight did not provide a ton of insight. He did show he can still wrestle and is extremely strong, but his competition was quite weak and provided no test of any kind. A few fighters he trained with (Tim Sylvia) say he doesn't deal well with strikes or kicks and predicted an easy win for Mir. Of course from Tim's perspective he's remembering the Mir of old and his broken arm. Lesnar's best shot at a win is simple game plan... Takedown, control, pound, control, pound.

Lesnar will likely bring the heat early and Mir will look to stay outside weather the storm and search for errors and openings. Eventually Brock will get Mir on his back and then the show will be on. Brock will have a very hard time passing the guard of Frank and while he is working for that control his arms, legs, and neck will all be in danger. Mir will likely take some significant damage on his back, but during one of the many scrambles, Lesnar will likely offer up a limb for the taking and Frank will capitalize.

In short, Frank should be the favorite in this fight due to experience alone, but in terms of a match up he has slight advantage with the combination of his stand up and BJJ, meaning he's a good value at any odds that have him as a dog.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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