WEC 32 Betting Odds and Fight Analysis

By Paul Tuesday, February 12, 2008
World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) 32 is featuring three championships fights in the welterweight, lightweight, and bantamweight divisions. The will be held at the Santa Ana Star Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico on February 13.

Carlos Condit (-400 Bookmaker) vs Carlo Prater (+350 Sportsbook)
This is the headline bout and the WEC welterweight championship belt is on the line, Condit is fresh off impressive submission victories over Brock Larson and John Allesio. He will be defending his belt against the man to hand him his first professional loss during Fightworld 2 back in 2004.

Condit is a tenacious fighter with very dangerous ground skills. He is still training with Greg Jackson's camp and their amazing stable of well known fighters (and some yet to be known). Carlos is not just dangerous on the groundwith almost half of his wins coming by TKO. In terms of aggression and ability to end fights Carlos' record explains it self - Only 1 decision in 25 fights.

To beat Condit at this point in his career Prater should not be looking to their pervious bout for confidence. Prater has a very strong record of his own with wins over not only Condit but names like Guillard and Spencer Fisher as well. The difference has been where he's has taken his game since those big wins. He hasn't been able to step into a bigger areana and face tougher competition and in the end his fight game hasn't grown much since 2004-05. Prater can finish any fight he's in but in this type of bout he''ll have to dictate the entire fight to have a shot.

Don't get me wrong Prater is a very legitamate contender in this fight, but with Condit's growth and training he now holds the advantage in every aspect of this match up. The odds offered up by the books are biased by Condit's loyal following and his name regocnition but the skewed odds still don't tempt me into betting on the dog in this one. I think we'll get a fantasitic battle, but before the final bell sounds Prater is going to get caught. No bet for me at -400 but the call is still Condit via Submission.

Jamie “The Worm” Varner (+110 Bookmaker) vs Rob "Razor" McCullough (-130 Sportsbook)
Tough as nails lightweight champ Razor McCullough has been an unstoppable freight train since 2002 and his uber-aggresive Muy Thai attacks have cut through the defenses and offenses of all but three opponents. Rob has never been stopped with his only losses coming by decision.

Now on the down side for Rob, a good proportion of his competition in the last couple of years have been, well lets say... CANS... like Kit "glass jaw" Cope. More than half of his opponents had losing or basically 50-50 records. What everyone has seen is an agressive finisher but a lack of solid competition leaves open questions, but I think his last fight with Richard Crunkilton might have put to that to rest at least a little. His new oppenent is a solid B+ level fighter who will provide another real test for the Razor.

Jamie Varner (14-2) is best know for his strong submission skills, but he's also very adept on his feet or putting to use some very sharp GnP. Varner was thrown to the dogs a bit in his UFC debut facing off with Hermes Franca where he's was eventually submitted, but he put on a good show for most of three rounds. In his last two fights he was back to his winning ways finishing off Gilliam and Sherron Leggett. Much like the Razor, Jamie has rarely heard the opinions of the judges prefering to finish fights.

This promises to be another top notch title fight and it's great to see highly competative fights when a belt is on the line. This one is a toss up will varners pwerful takedowns and ground control be enough to overcome McCulough's high pace stand up. I'm leaning toward Razor's ability to survive the ground attacks and find the opening to finish with knees and strikes. Razor via TKO.

Chase Beebe (-180 Bookmaker) vs Miguel Torres (+160 Bodog).
Defending bantamweight champion Beebe has got a real battle on his hands with the highly touted submission specialist Torres, who also has only one decision loss on his record. The majority of Beebe's wins have been guillotines and RNC's set up by solid wrestling and ground and pound. This matchup will present a new challenge to Beebe where he will be outmatched in terms of submission skills.

In the end this fight will likey be a repeat of Beebe's last fight with Rani Yahya where the two spent most of the fight on the ground transitioning for control with few standup exchanges. There's a good chance that whoever gets the better of the standup will be able to win over the judges for a decision. I have to go with Beebe having more weapons to score points with easpecialy on the feet. Beebe via Decision.

Here's the rest of the lines:
135lbs: Manny Tapia (-265 sportsbook) vs. Antonio Banuelos (+255 Bodog)
145lbs: Hiroyuki Takaya (+120 Bodog) vs. Leonard Garcia (-115 Bookmaker)
145lbs: Josh Grispi (+200 Bookmaker) vs. Mark Hominick (-245 Sportsbook)
135lbs: Del Hawkins (-115 Bodog) vs. Coy Wheeler (-115 Bodog)
135lbs: Charlie Valencia (-135 Bookmaker) vs. Yoshiro Maeda (+130 Bodog)
145lbs: Micah Miller (-160 Bookmaker) vs. Chance Farrar (+160 Sportsbook)

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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