UFC 83: Georges St Pierre vs Matt Serra II Betting Odds and Analysis

By Paul Monday, March 10, 2008
Will lightening strike twice? Most observers of this match up say it was a "fluke" outcome the first time around. Excuses for GSP were popping up everywhere. No excuse was needed, he got cracked by a very good fighter. Serra caught him - created an advantage - maintained his attack until it was finished. It's what can happen in any fight with such skilled fighters.

Unfortunately, it's my job to decide what the odds of it happening again might be!

The main change I see in this match up has been GSP's training and attitude. Between working with Jackson's stable and refocusing, he appears to have the right level of respect for this fight. After seeing his second defeat of Hughes I don't think we need to discuss his skills.

Matt this time is coming in with much less momentum and his fighting condition after recovering from surgery is simply unknown until fight night.

Possible outcomes for this fight go something like this: (Assumes Serra is in good fight condition)

Decision: 20% chance of happening, GSP win's this outcome 95 % of the time.
(Very unlikely Serra can control GSP for the majority of this fight due to reach and strength. GSP may use same plan he used with Koscheck and others.)
TKO: 50 % chance of happening, GSP win's this outcome 70% of the time.
(GSP has the reach and wider arsenal - kicks especially dangerous here. Serra has power and good enough chin to get inside and of course he did it before.)
Submission: 30% chance of happening, GSP win's this outcome 65% of the time.
(Both are very skilled with submissions. Serra has experience edge, but GSP has strength edge and will be more likely to be in the dominant position.)

Using various forms of fuzzy math GSP should win this fight about 72.5% of the time so odds of -270 or better would have value. The best odds offered on GSP are -450 at Bodog.

On the other side of the coin Serra should win 27.5 % of the time and odds of +270 or better would have value. The best odds offered for Serra are +375 at Bookmaker.

Probablility wise a bet on Serra is a money maker over time...But it's not one I'm making, I just don't bet against Georgey. A bet on GSP has too small of a return for the risk so this one is a no bet for me.

Prediction: George St. Pierre via TKO - No bet.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

4 comments to ''UFC 83: Georges St Pierre vs Matt Serra II Betting Odds and Analysis"

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  1. free bet

    i saw the fight, man that st. Pierre is a tough guy

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  3. everyone thinks st pierre is going to win wanna bet you obviously haven't watched to many matt serra fights and you sure the hell don't know how to predict odds. fuck bodog bunch of idiots predicting over there to.

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