UFC 83: Travis "Sleestak" Lutter vs Rich "Ace" Franklin Betting Odds

By Paul Thursday, March 20, 2008
Travis Sleestak LutterSleestaks were never very scary, but somehow we all knew that if they did manage to get their bizarre oven mitts on someone they would be in trouble.

Lutter's "Sleestak Attack" has worked surprisingly well on some very athletic opponents and he's looking to employee it again with Franklin.

Franklin has great takedown and BJJ defense and it's likely he's counting on his strength to keep it on his feet as much as possible. As always the question is who can impose their gameplan.

Here are my probabilities for for outcomes in this fight:

Decision: 35% chance of happening, Franklin wins this outcome 65 % of the time.
Generally Franklin's strength and ground defense should allow him to display his more aggressive style and standup, which the judges seem to prefer. Make no mistake though if the Sleestak Attack is in full effect Lutter has a decent chance of controlling the fight long enough to get a decision.

TKO: 40 % chance of happening, Franklin wins this outcome 80% of the time.
Franklin has the reach, a wider arsenal and plenty of power. Lutter plans on continually looking to get the fight to the ground and anytime someone has a predictable fight plan they leave themselves open.

Submission: 25 % chance of happening, Lutter wins this outcome 70% of the time.
Franklin has very good BJJ defense, so over all I don't see a huge chance for a submission. If one happens it will probably be Lutter's oven mitts applying it.

Franklin should win this fight about 62.25% of the time so odds of -165 or better would have value. The best odds offered on Franklin are -330 at Sportsbook.

Lutter should win 37.75 % of the time and odds of +170 or better would have value. The best odds offered for Lutter are +285 at Bookmaker.

In terms of value and betting edge Lutter is a good buy here. The question is this the Lutter who came in overweight and sluggish against Silva or the dangerous sleestak who climbed right on top of Cote and submitted him with ease? My pick is Rich Franklin but if you have that gut feeling about Lutter you're getting a good price.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

1 comment to ''UFC 83: Travis "Sleestak" Lutter vs Rich "Ace" Franklin Betting Odds"

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