The books were a little slow on releasing their numbers, but there are some interesting opportunities in this unbelievably packed fight card. Not to gloat but I will be in Colorado to enjoy this one live. Which means I'm Heading out in 8 hours so I'm going with a very reduced analysis. I'm only going to cover the fights I'm betting on, besides I doubt any of you want to read about 12!! different match ups.

I'm going to run through how I come up with my own probabilities for fights to decide if there is value in each bet. It's definitely tough to pick the strongest bet on this card. There are obviously some lopsided match ups, but of course the odds on those are -600 to -800, not what I'm looking for. I've picked three fights to bet on, but there are many options just do your research and shop those odds folks.

Frankie Edgar (-160 Sportsbook) vs Gray Maynard (+130 Sportsbook)
Decision: 65% chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 65 % of the time.
There's a pretty good chance this ones going the distance and it will be a battle between Edgar's superior standup and Gray's wrestling. Edgar takedown defense and amazing scrambling gives him a slight edge over the distance.

TKO: 20 % chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 65% of the time.
Edgar's advantage here is in technique and speed, but Maynard does have better power. After watching Edgar vs Fisher it should be obvious how good he is on his feet.

Submission: 15 % chance of happening, Edgar wins this outcome 50% of the time.
Neither fighter is really strong in the submission department, but both have excellent defenses. When this one is on the ground you're more likely to see ground and pound than a triangle.

Edgar should win this fight about 62.75% of the time, so odds of -165 or better would have value. The best odds offered on Edgar are -160 at Sportsbook.

Prediction: Edgar via Decision
Bet: Edgar (-160) bet 1.6 units to win 1

Din Thomas (-160 Sportsbook) vs Josh Neer (+150 Bodog)
Decision: 40% chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 70 % of the time.
Din has better hands, kicks, footwork, takedown defense, and Jiu Jitsu. Neer will have the strength advantage, but in the end Din will be working for the finish both on the feet and on the ground and it will show in the score at the end of each round.

TKO: 20 % chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 55% of the time.
Din definitely has better hands and much better kicks, but Neer's power, strong chin, and brawler attitude make him dangerous on the feet.

Submission: 40 % chance of happening, Thomas wins this outcome 80% of the time.
Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt against a brawler not hard to come up with a number for this one.

Thomas should win this fight about 71% of the time, so odds of -245 or better would have value. The best odds offered on Edgar are -160 at Sportsbook.

Prediction: Thomas via Submission
Bet: Thomas (-160) bet 3.2 units to win 2

Karo Parisyan (-180 BetUS) vs Thiago Alves (+150 BetUS)
Decision: 50% chance of happening, Alves wins this outcome 51 % of the time.
When it comes to action and control there's a reason Karo has won so many fights, even if it is usually by decision. His throws, takedowns and ground work keep very fight very interesting. This time out though, he just seems to be lacking confidence (unheard of for Karo). I think Thiago will actually push the pace in this fight and if he can't put Karo out, his wicked leg kicks and fast hands will score him the win.

TKO: 35 % chance of happening, Alves wins this outcome 90% of the time.
Karo's record says it all...he's NEVER had a TKO and it's real unlikely he's going to get his first one against Alves. This is however the way Thiago finishes the majority of his fights.

Submission: 15 % chance of happening, Parisyan wins this outcome 80% of the time.
Karo is an excellent grappler and has very strong submissions, but he just hasn't been able to finish with them. Thiago's strength will likely keep him safe in this fight.

Alves should win this fight about 60% of the time, so odds of -145 or better would have value. The best odds offered on Edgar are +150 at BetUS.

Prediction: Alves via TKO
Bet: Alves (+150) bet 1 units to win 1.5

Desert Dog's Bets for Ultimate Fight Night 13:
Thomas (-160) bet 3.2 units to win 2
Edgar (-160) bet 1.6 units to win 1
Alves (+150) bet 1 unit to win 1.5

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

1 comment to ''Ultimate Fight Night 13 Betting Odds"

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  1. This is a nice blog. I like it!

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