UFC 84 Betting Odds and Analysis

By Paul Monday, May 19, 2008
Fight Break Downs:

Lyoto Machida (-200 BetUS) vs. Tito Ortiz (+180 Bodog)

Machida may not have an endless KO highlight reel but while training out of the Black House with Anderson Silva and A. Nogueira he has developed his own unique and undefeated style. He has combined his karate background with Muay Thai, wrestling, and Jiu Jitsu techniques (starting at 15) into a calm counter fighting style. The dragon's style may never be a fan favorite, but it wins by forcing opponents to step outside of their own game plan.

Lyoto's gameplan in this fight will look much like it has in other UFC fights. He will stay outside counter punching and throwing the occasional back kick. It is very likey that he will be taken down in the first round and see the same sort of barrage that Forrest experienced. Lyoto has both the chin and the skill from his back to avoid serious damage. In the second round Tito will likely taste Lyoto's power and speed. We all know what happens when Tito gets hit, it gets in his head, this has happened in his fights with Forrest, Liddell, and Evans. You can see his style and confidence change. His shots come from too far outside, his standup becomes indecisive. If this happens early in the second round Tito will get soundly out worked and drop a decision. Although Machida has an excellent submission game it's unlikely he'll be able to put away Tito.

Tito's strengths and game plan are the same as they've always been, get the takedown, push the guy to the fence, and drop elbows and fists. His style has worked well except with strong counter strikers or people who could avoid his takedowns. Tito claims (again) to be totaly healthy and while, I don't doubt that he's in great shape, I haven't trusted the mental side of his game for years now. If Tito could put Machida down for the first two rounds and control him with out taking any big shots he could pull off the win, but I just don't trust him. Tito's plan is to simply over power a more techniquely skilled fighter and it's the perfect scenario to see Tito fall apart.

Prediction: Lyoto Machida via decision
Bet: 1 unit to win 0.5

Wanderlei Silva (-160 Bodog) vs. Keith Jardine (+145 BetUS)

Oh ya baby, this should be a hellofa fight. These two love bang and put on a great show.

Wanderlei is suprisingly, still the favorite in this fight. I say surprisingly because looking at their recent records and the fact that Jardine holds wins over Forrest and Chuck, it's not a stretch to say that Keith has some serious momentum and Wandi has been on a very rough downswing. Silva has only won four of his last eight fights and he's suffered a couple of wicked KO's in his last two fights in Pride. His last fight with Liddell showed why he's such a popular fighter and that he has endless heart, but that may not hold up to the reach and power of the akward Jardine.

While Silva is still using every method in the books to improve his cardio, he has also redeadicated himself to solid sparring in all aspects of the game. The one aspect that could serve him best in this fight is his Muay Thai clinch of death. The clinch is where the "Axe Murderer" really earned his name. To put his gameplan into full effect he'll have to wade through Jardine's leg kicks, off angles, and power. The one place this fight will probably not go is to the ground.

Look for more of the same from Jardine. His akward learchy style, heavy leg kicks, and huge right hands. The one loss that really seams to weigh on everyones mind is the KO he suffered at the hands of Alexander. Well, I think it'safe to say that nobody including Keith was ready for Alexanders style and power. That fight aside Keith's weakness has been fighters with better reach and speed. Wandi will present a new style and challenge to Jardine and should be entertaining the whole way through.

In the end I have to look at which fighter has three straight losses and which won just beat Forrest Griffin and Chuck Liddell. This fight could go either way and to that say bet the odds. With Jardine still sitting as the underdog I have to throw a small bet his way.

Prediction: Keith Jardine via TKO
Bet: 0.5 units to win 0.725

BJ Penn (-250 Bodog) vs. Sean Sherk (+210 BetUS)

BJ Penn is the shit, really! and Sean Sherk....well in my opinion he isn't! The matchup definitely makes this fight. BJ has accumulated a retarded amount of skill and now he's decided to start training some of that cardio stuff. Training with Uriah Faber will really give BJ the feel for someone who fights with a very fast pace and can only help his cardio. In my opinion, BJ Penn in shape has more options to win a fight than any one else in the game (except maybe Silva) it's that simple. BJ has a nice reach advantage and at 155 BJ has a size advantage in terms of leverage and mobility a strength advantage as well in this fight, You may think whatever, but watch his fights with muscle strong guys like Steveson and Hughes and even back in the day against Machida and you'll see how much of an advantage he can have.

Picure Sherk's last fight...I know that's a long time, but can you really picture Sherk wrestling BJ down and maintianing his lay'n'pray for 5 rounds??? Because that's his only option for a win. Sherk's reach is so ridiculously short the only way he's ever scored a real TKO was with ground and pound. It takes the crazy athletasism of a GSP to get BJ down and punish him there (BJ being gassed helps as well). Yes, I know Hughes beat him with GNP too but I give the injury more credit for that than Hughes.

This is a bit more of a rant than a straight analysis for this fight, sorry, but sometimes you just have to let a little out. Short and sweet of it, BJ is feeling it right now and he's not going to be denied by the likes of Sherk.With Bodog's current odds I'll be laying down a max bet with a smile on my face.

Prediction: BJ Penn via Submission
Bet: 5 Units to win 2

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

3 comments to ''UFC 84 Betting Odds and Analysis"

  1. free bet

    i like the odds on Ortiz...he will deffo do sommit about winning hehe

  2. Whoever owns this blog, I would like to say that he has a great idea of choosing a topic.

  3. We'd love for you to add us to your list of MMA sites. Check us out at http://www.octagonbuzz.com. Thanks!