Georges St Pierre vs Jon Fitch Betting Odds and Analysis

By Paul Sunday, July 27, 2008
This one is for real fight fans. St Pierre is seen by most as the superior 170 lb fighter in the world but he has yet to face a fighter with a similar combination of skills and size. Jon Fitch has shown he can use a full tool bag to put away a wide array of fighters and now he's facing the ultimate test of his chess match fighting style at UFC 87.

Georges St Pierre is again looking to make his first title defense. GSP continues to train in both Canada and Albuquerque with Greg Jackson. George has looked dominant in every fight since his loss to Hughes in 2004. After that he has not made a significant mistake in a fight and has slowly shifted from using strong wrestling and ground control to more and more stand up using his fast Muy Thia kicks and boxing. Then he ran into a bad night with Matt Serra (a mind boggler really) and has since rejuvinated his wrestling and ground control game. He put Koscheck, Hughes, and Serra soundly on their backs and beat them all with superior power, speed, and technique.

One fight that stands out in my memory was his fight with BJ Penn. BJ was running on a short tank of gas and we didn't get to see the full extent of how the fight would go but; what I did see is that when GSP is facing a well rounded fighter he's much slower to get rolling. He was losing soundly on the feet during the first round and looked to takedowns and control to barely pull out a decision. Now taking down and controling BJ is pretty fucking amazing but, it showed that when he's challenged in the standup it's straight to the ground. So what happens when he's challenged on the feet and then runs into a wrestler/BJJ black belt with with the same physique and hell even the same tattoos?? You get a true show of physical and mental metal.

Fitch continues to train with American Kickboxing Academy out of San Jose with other very talented fighters like Cain Velasquez and Josh Koscheck. Just like GSP, Fitch has never faced this complete of a fighter. He's met very talented fighters both on the ground and in the stand up and has found ways to pull out the wins in every bout since joining AKA. His style is grounded in his wrestling but his time at AKA has resulted in a Gracie black belt as well as a solid stand up game with very good kicks....not as good as GSP's, but still very respectable.

The tale of Fitch's record is that he always finds a way to win but he has fallen short in being able to finish fights against tough opponents. He has pulled out big TKO's like the one against Thiago Alves and a few nice submissions, but in general he just wins.

Match up wise Fitch and St Pierre are very similar in their styles as well as how they shift weapons to fit their opponent. When each element is lined up GSP comes out ahead just a bit...speed, power, takedowns, striking, submissions, and even aggression. It doesn't mean that GSP wins every time but he has the edge in all aspects of this fight...except height I suppose. In the end GSP should win this fight about 65-70% of the time which translates to odds of -190 to -240 being close to true.

The current betting line for GSP is sitting at -265 (SportsBook) which is decent considering his popularity. Jon Fitch's betting line is sitting at +260 (BookMaker) which means the books are giving him about a 28% chance. The lines look pretty reasonable and the return at these odds are the best you will get. If you want to put money on GSP do it now his line will likey be -300 to -375 at all of the books as the fight gets closer.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

2 comments to ''Georges St Pierre vs Jon Fitch Betting Odds and Analysis"

  1. Anonymous6:00 AM

    it is American Kickboxing Academy not ATT

  2. the right teammates but that was a solid late night brain fart.