Heath Herring vs Brock Lesnar Betting Odds and Analysis

By Paul Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Prove it....Brock Lesnar is a beast, a monster, hell on wheels, and bound to be the top heavy weight in the UFC...Prove it!

No one will deny Lesnar his wrestiling history or is physical stature, but in terms of being a 2 to 1 favorite against any seasoned UFC fighter, there's no ryhme or reason. He's very new to the sport and with his first fight ending so quickly he's really untested. What does he offer right now that a 40+ fight vetran like Herring hasn't dealt with before? Nothing. So what does he offer that Herring has problems with. Wrestling! It's a little do or die for both fighters which could mean serious fireworks.

Each fighter will be looking to test the others percieved areas of weakness. Herring will look to absorb Lesnar's early rush by avoiding damage while he's on the ground and then create scrambles from which he will look for submission opportunities and then in the later two rounds he will look to impose his stand up game with emphasis on his kicks. Herring is going to have to be a bit elusive to get Lesnar frustrated and more willing to extend himself, if he succeeds, he will have an excellent chance of putting Brock away. Don't forget, every UFC opponent Herring has faced has been knocked down with solid shots...he just hasn't finished them.

Lesnar's game plan will be just what you would expect takedown, control, and then strike like a spaz who forgot his Ritalin. Brock's just so damn excited he really gets to hit people he gets a little out of control. He'll have to maintain control and deliver damage each round. Securing takedown after takedown won't be enough to win a decsion if Herring can control the standup and deliver damage there. All things even between control on the ground and control in the standup and the judges will side with the stand up almost every time.

I like this match up and put the odds close to even, with a slight edge to Lesnar due to his power and agression, but even with that edge the odds dictate backing Herring or no bet. There's no value in betting on Lesanr as a 2 to 1 favorite. Most books have Heath Herring at about +200 with the best odds being + 215 at SportsBook.com.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

1 comment to ''Heath Herring vs Brock Lesnar Betting Odds and Analysis"

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