Roger Huerta vs Kenny Florian Betting Odds and Analysis

By Paul Tuesday, August 05, 2008
This is a classic match up that has potential for fight of the night. Both fighters are very aggressive, comfortable on the ground or feet, and work relentlessly for the finish. Technical vs Tenacious...I see a big finish in the making.

Kenny Florian has been a great example of fighter evolution. So much about his game and even his physical condition has changed since he first showed up on Ultimate Fighter 1. The first obvious move was to head to the lightweight division, the other and maybe most important was training with Mark DellaGrotte. With DellaGrotte he's developed an effective Muay Thai style that utilizes his precision sniper style. Prior to picking up Muay Thai, in 2003 Kenny earned a BJJ black belt and has translated those skills very well in to MMA.

What he is lacking in raw power he has made up for in precision. This technical precision has been apparent in his success attacking openings on the ground or standing. He's also shown he has the conditioning to go for 3 or even 5 solid rounds.

Roger Huerta comes from a greco wrestling background and has developed an aggressive stand up featuring his favorite front kicks and head kicks. His wrestling skills are mostly used to either move to dominant position for GnP or to to defend on the ground creating scrambles and often reversals. Many of his UFC fights have featured opponents with serious ground skills in terms of either submissions or wrestling and he has always shown an uncanny ability to scramble and reverse. Outside of his tanacity his endurance may be his other biggest asset.

Roger's fight with Guida was a classic example of a never say die style. Over all in that fight he was being dominated with Guida striking well, changing levels, taking him down and just dictating how the fight would go. A determined and surprisingly energetic Huerta left it all on the table and in round three caught Clay with a great knee and moved in for the finish with the rear naked choke.

For the first two rounds of this fight we should get to see how good Florians chin is and how crafty and athletic Huerta is while avoiding several near finishes. Roger's wide open style is more likely to leave an opening for Florian to catch him in a submission. Both have the ability to get a TKO but in this match up the odds are Huerta will leave an opening late in the fight and probably find himself in an armbar or triangle.

With both fighters having good public backing the odds have stayed fairly tight with Florian only being a slight favorite. I'd say a bet on either side has value depending on your perception of the bout.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

5 comments to ''Roger Huerta vs Kenny Florian Betting Odds and Analysis"

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  1. Humungus4:56 PM

    I think Florian should be a solid -250 to -275 favorite in this fight, and, honestly when the odds lines opened with him at -160 i jumped on it. They have since gotten even better, and I gotta say, go with Florian on this one.

    Huerta's only advantages are probably power and a slight cardio advantage that maybe would come into play in a 5 round fight but not a three round fight. And every opponent Florian has faced has probably had a decent to large power advantage. He overcomes it with great technique, which is IMO Huerta's biggest weakness (his sloppiness).

    My money is on Florian. Can't wait until Saturday! We'll see if I'm right.

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