The massive Superbowl weekend fight card of UFC 94 is finally here. I'm going to eat so much greasy tasty food this weekend I may have to take another week off of work. The main card has some fantastic matchups and some underdog bets with great value. A little odd for me but three of my four main card bets are on dogs. You all need to put some serious thought into each of these matchups before you place any bets. For me nothing makes a rack of short ribs taste better than a group of friends, beer, and having some cabbage on the line for the biggest fights of the year.

Here are the “Smart Bets” for UFc 94:(Note: + = Underdog; - = Favorite)

Main card picks:
BJ Penn +130 --Bet $100 to $130 BetUS
Thiago Silva +200 --Bet $100 to win $200 BetUS
Jon Jones +135 -- Bet $100 to win 135 BetUS
Nate Diaz -125 -- Bet $100 to win $110 BetUS
Karo Parisyan -350 -- No Bet

Undercard Picks:
Jon Fitch -600 -- No Bet
Chris Wilson -300 -- No Bet
Jake O Brien -300 -- No Bet
Matt Arroyo -175 -- No Bet

Whatever your bets are for UF 94 make sure you look at the realistic outcomes and use solid bets to cover your bigger risks. You don’t have to bet on them all, just stick to the fighters you know and match ups that give that best probability to make some dough.

“Rush” St. Pierre (-170) vs. BJ “The Prodigy” Penn (+130)
Well we've seen this match up before, but this time it looks to a completely new fight. In 2006 BJ was on the comeback and still not in shape for top level competition. GSP had his eye on the title but was still waning in true confidence. Both of those factors are gone this time around and now we have two very different fighters in their prime. As a fan I love both of these fighters and have been highly entertained and impressed with their skill and heart.

In terms of the matchup BJ holds several important advantages including, punching power, Jiu-Jitsu, and that iron chin. It's been obvious in many of BJ's fights that he can take a hard shot and never blink an eye. The key for him in this fight is to stay in control, by using his takedown defense and laying St. Pierre on his back a couple of times. If GSP is free to take Penn down his size and strength will eventually wear BJ down. There are several options for BJ to finish this fight including strikes or submissions. For GSP on the other hand probabilities of finishing BJ in anyway are fairly low. Does anyone see Penn ever getting submitted? GSP may be able to get a TKO stoppage late in the fight by immobilizing Penn forcing the ref to stop the fight much like in the fight with Hughes. Speaking of Hughes, who has won and lost against both fighters, he believes Penn will win this fight and so do I. GSP is an amazing fighter who can tear apart most anyone in the division, but up against the skill and intangibles of a killer like Penn I sense a shocking and brutal end to Georges second term as 170 lb champ. PS. I've never bet against GSP before.

Prediction: BJ Penn by TKO
Bet: $100 to win $130

Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida (-300) vs. Thiago Silva (+200)
A great matchup of two unbeaten fighters with very different styles and records. Although both are unbeaten Silva has finished all but one of his opponents while Machida has gone to decision in 8 of his 13 fights. Looking at the odds it seems that the public and odds makers have missed the mark here a bit and left some real value in a bet on Silva. Machida's style has frustrated his opponents and left many questioning how do you get to such an elusive fighter without falling into his countering style. Nobody wants to see another fight where someone is chasing his opponent and throwing his hands in the air in frustration and then getting peppered with quick shots and back to more chasing. Silva has two choices sit and wait, or run Machida down. I honestly think if Silva did not engage neither would Machida, they'd both just stand there staring at each other. So, to get to Machida he's going to have to run him down relentlessly and put him on his back. Both of these guys have great ground games, but Silva's strength and G'nP are death for any fighter on their back. At +200 I think it's worth a small bet on Silva's ability to catch and slay the Dragon.

Prediction: Thiago Silva TKO
Bet: $100 to win $200

Stephan “The American Psycho” Bonnar (-175) vs. Jon “Bones” Jones (+135)
Hey it's Bonnar...He's still fighting? the very talented and tough Bonnar has been out of the cage for over year after having his knee surgically repaired from an injury sustained while training for a big fight against Matt Hamill. He had been looking very good after coming back from his steriod suspension. Although Stephan was a very solid and tough technical fighter, a year off and recovery from serious injusys will always leave some ring rust. Now he's set to face one of the most intruiging prospects in the division. Jones won his UFC debut in a ONE DAY notice fight against veteran Andre Gusmao at UFC 87 and provided an awsome fight, exciting the the crowd with spinning backfists and double spinning back elbows. On top of his exciting standup game “Bones” was a collegiate wrestler and if you can remember back to Ultimate Fight Night 5, it was Rashad's wrestling that resulted in a loss for Bonnar. I don't know enough about Jones to say that he can finish Bonnar, but I don't have any confidence in Stephen's confidence and condition after this layoff.

Prediction: Jon Jones by decision
Bet: $100 to $135

Nate Diaz (-125) vs. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida (-105)
It's not to hard to predict how this fight will go. A little striking and then bang straight to the ground, hair flying everywhere and Guida working for position and control while defending against submissions. Diaz is extremely dangerous on his back and against a fighter like Guida it's just a matter of time before he catches him in a triangle. Diaz also has better standup and a significant reach advantage, however Clay's style will likely keep this fight in the clinch and on the ground. Relentless wrestling vs skilled Jiu-jitsu usually ends with a nap or tap. The odds here are very tight and pretty close to the true odds for this fight. With odds this close it's worth a value bet on your straight pick.

Prediction: Diaz by submission
Bet: $125 to win $100

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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