Matt Hughes (-250 BetUS) vs Matt Serra (+200 Sportsbook)
OK, so these two are as relevant to the division as "war machine", but what they do have is a super opinionated group of followers. Everyone has an opion on who's a bigger douche bag... including them! That's the recipe for a great fight, two guys on the steep downslope of their carrers who want nothing more than to kick the ass of their one last rival before heading home to gorge on meatballs or taters...or whatever.
So who will be the superior douche' el grande? In their current state, Hughes will dominate in terms of strength and ability to take the fight to the ground and control from there. Serra is better in terms of BJJ but both are skilled enough that it's likely to be a stalemate in submissions. The standup advantage goes to stubs, if for no other reason than Hughes' striking just plain sucks ass, he couldn't knock out a cat. Serra will have to move a lot and avoid the takedown to have a chance to crack Hughes. Serra does have the strinking power to finish the fight, but I'd only give him a 30% chance of a TKO. The most likely outcome is a judges decision and Hughes will likely take it via control and takedowns. Sounds awesome huh. We're all just hoping for a miricle knock out from either of them, but really these two are done before they even get in the octogon.
The current odds are pretty close to expectations and offer no great bargains. A small bet for fun on Serra might keep the fight interesting but otherwise I'm just watching this one.
You wanna make a bet....
3 comments:
I disagree, I think there is some value in a chalk bet on Hughes. I feel Serra fans and Hughes-haters have pushed the line a little. I think realistically Hughes should be more like a -400 favorite.
You're right that Hughes probably has decent value as a chalk bet. It was much better when the odds first hit the board at -185. I considered a bet then, but I really don't like betting on Hughes and so if I can't keep emotion out of a bet I avoid it.
I don't think he should be an 80% favorite (-400)though, 3 years ago yes, but his mind is elsewhere these days. I think he'll win but, Serra has a solid 30+% chance of winning maybe even close to 40%....Unless of course Serra is as sidetracked as Hughes.
If you like it, I'd say go for the bet, it's not a bad one just not a standout.
yeah i wish I could have got one in at -185. I didn't get a look at the lines until he was at -250. I still have a bet on him though, because I just can't envision him losing to anything other than a flash KO. Serra has never submitted anyone even decent, and certainly nobody of Hughes' caliber. He has shown an ability to drop people, but he has only ever finished one person with strikes (gsp, in what can only be described as a freak fight). You really think Serra wins this fight 4/10 times?
I'd like to hear what you think about Sherk/Edgar. IMO Sherk is a total lock. I don't think Edgar has anything for him. I got a big bet in when the lines opened at -275. I think its at -300 now, which still has value IMO
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