UFC 98 Betting Odds: Sean Sherk vs Frankie Edgar

By Paul Wednesday, May 06, 2009
Sean Sherk (-265 Sportsbook) vs Frankie Edgar (+215 Bodog)
Sean Sherk sports an impressive record but remember, he has only fought 4 times in the last three years. His opponent Edgar is no slouch in terms of experience or solid wins under his belt. Both fighters have recent wins over Hermes Franca and Tyson Griffin and both have just come back with a good win after a difficult loss.

Joe Silva has done his job with two fighters that are well matched in terms of differing skill sets and records that put them in very similar rankings. Some would argue that Edgar should not be this well ranked after his loss to Gray Maynard, but with wins over Mark Bocek, Spencer Fisher, Hermes Franca, and Tyson Griffin, he has to be pushed up the ladder. Sherk has fought better competition (Hughes, St. Pierre, Penn) but he's lost miserably to all of them...

OK, so the quick and dirty match up...Sherk will come with the Gray Maynard fight plan looking to out "muscle" Edgar and control him on the ground. Edgar has stated he's changed his training and strategy for this fight, he's worked even more on his take down defense and will be looking to control the pace as he has in the past on the feet. Sherk's loss to B.J. exposed that quick, technical strikers have a real advantage over his mechanical short hooks and jabs.

Neither fighter has finished a fight in several years and that trend will probably continue on this night. If Sherk maintains ground control it's unlikely he will be able to submit or TKO Edgar there, Edgar has great scrambling and ground defense. On the other side of the coin if Edgar does keep it standing for most of the fight, his speed and accuracy will give him the points to win but, he's lacking the power to get through Sherk's chin.

The fight will simply come down to can Edgar avoid being out powered, can he avoid the take down and when he hits the ground how fast can he get up. In my opinion if he follows his game plan he has about a 35-40% chance of pulling out the decision. His current odds are giving him a 32% chance, not much of an edge there, but if his odds hit +250 on up it's worth a look. For Sherk, his best odds say he should win 73% of the time, again no real edge (by my capping).

I have a feeling that Sherk will start showing his age soon and that Edgar may just come into his own at this event. There's just something changing about both of these fighters and I think Sherk is about to start a downswing. I'd prefer a stronger edge for my bet, I'll put one in now and watch the odds.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

1 comment to ''UFC 98 Betting Odds: Sean Sherk vs Frankie Edgar"

  1. I don't see any reason to think that Sherk will have lost a step yet. He looked better than ever against Tyson griffin, and he is simply a bigger, stronger, better version of Frankie Edgar. this fight will look a lot like Edgar/Maynard, and I don't think he will have anything for Sherk.

    I got a big bet on Sherk at -275. Can't wait to see the fight! This is a great card.