The first ever UFC card in Germany goes down this Saturday and promises some exciting match ups and some familiar old faces in "UFC 99 Comeback ". Silva, Cro Cop, and Franklin have been in the game for a very long time and all have impressively held belts in their day. So who will look like the man of his glory days...or will any of them? With six bouts set for the broadcast card there's sure to be plenty of fireworks

Here are the “Smart Bets” for UFc 99:

Main card picks:
Rich Franklin -140: Bet $140 to $100 Sportsbook
Cheick Kongo +160: Bet $100 to win $160 BetUS
Mirko Cro Cop -400: No Bet
Mike Swick -200: Bet $100 to win $50 BetUS
Marcus Davis -200: Bet $200 to win $100 BetUS
Spencer Fisher -200: Bet $200 to win $100 BetUS

Undercard Picks:
Terry Etim -350 -- No Bet
Paul Kelly -400 -- No Bet
Paul Taylor -350 -- No Bet
Dennis Siver -170 -- No Bet
Stefan Struve -125 -- No Bet
John Hathaway -140 -- No Bet

Whatever your bets are for UFC 99 make sure you look at the realistic outcomes and use solid bets to cover your bigger risks. You don’t have to bet on them all, just stick to the fighters you know and match ups that give that best probability to make some dough.

Rich Franklin (-140 Sportsbook) vs Wanderlei Silva (+115 BetUS)
Wow, this is a fight many fans had even thought of a year ago, now here we are at a catch weight of 195 watching two stalwarts of the MMA world getting ready to go to war. The all American school teacher vs the Axe murderer sounds like something just a little disturbing that you won't be able to look away from.

Franklin will look to use his reach and unorthodox style to control on the feet while Silva will look to keep things a little closer working more from the clinch and a more tradition Muay-Thai style. On the feet this will be decided by strength and speed and at this catch weight I think Franklin holds the advantage in both. Especially if he listened to his little buddy Anderson Silva on how to handle Silva's clinch work.

An interesting question is, will Franklin look to take this fight to the ground? Although Silva is a BJJ black belt, he doesn't really like to be on the ground especially on his back. Tossing in a couple of takedowns a round could really keep the points swinging the way of Franklin, just in case he can't muster up enough power to clean the melon on Wandi's shoulders.

Pick: Franklin via decision
Bet: 1.4 units to win 1

Mirko Cro cop (-400 Bookmaker) vs Mustapha Al-Turk (+350 Bodog)
Cro Cop is back! well I hope I get to say that after Saturday night. It's obvious he has to show us all that he's back, hungry, ready for the cage and talented enough to handle the giants and elite grapplers of the Heavyweight Division. We got to big boys coming in on short notice and both are coming off bad preformances and for Mirko surgery as well; which could mean lights out quick for someone...or more huffing than a night with Courtney Love.

I believe Mirko should take this fight, but with the current odds on this fight are still favoring the Cro Cop mistique way too much, I can't justify a bet. Right now, Cheick Kongo is the only underdog I'm leaning toward but with odds of +350 Al-Turk is tempting me... just a bit.

Pick: Mirko Cro Cop via TKO
Bet: None

Cheick Kongo (+160 BetUS) vs Cain Velasquez (-200 BetUS)
Once the announcement was made that Herring was out and Cheick was in, this fight got a lot more interesting. Taking nothing away from Heath, Kongo will be a huge test for the new Heavyweight golden boy Velasques.

Velasquez, a former 2-time All-American wrestler,has been on a terror; chopping through his first five opponents, all by TKO and only seeing round 2 once. Cain puts his wrestiling to use very well controling opponents on the ground and inflicting serious damage very quickly. What he hasn't faced yet is a larger, stonger fighter with exceptional striking skills and power.

Wrestlers typically fair well against Kongo, but it's been very appearent over his last three fights that he's really working on his ground game especially his takedown defense. On top of that he's started putting together a very decent GnP game of his own.

Knowing that Velasquez is not another lay and pray wrestler but someone looking to just put you to sleep, Kongo will have an easier job when he is on his back. He won't have to worry about submissions or just being controled. Kongo will simply have to stay conscious and get up... easy right?

No questions of conditioning in this fight just who can impose their style. Cain has the right tools to take out Kongo. Cheick has the experience and tools now to deal with most wrestlers. Personally, I'm going with experience, a couple of huge knees, and maybe one quick kick to the nuts. I like the odds here and I'm really looking forward to what this does for the Heavyweight standing.

Pick Cheick Kongo via TKO
Bet: 1 unit to win 1.6

Mike Swick (-200 SportsBook) vs Ben Saunders (+175 BetUS)

Two quick lanky smart ass goofballs will likely be a fight of the night. Swick's speed and technichal prowess will be tested by Saunders size, heart, and sweet Jeet Kune Do style. The reach is even, Swick will have a speed advantage, an advatage in experience, and submissions. This should be an all out war with a lot of abuse going both ways, but in the end Swick knows how to win and will put this one away making his first step back as an exciting and explosive fighter.

Pick: Mike Swick via Decision
Bet: 1 unit to win 0.5

Marcus Davis (-200 Sportsbook) vs Dan Hardy (+175 BetUS)
Seetting all the shit talking aside Marcus Davis holds the advantage in every aspect of this fight except for reach, his speed and and technique has always taken care of that though. Dan Hardy had a great last fight with a KO of the IFL can Rory Markham, yes I called him a can. You can't call a split decision over Gono and any win over Markham proof that your're one of the most dangerous fighters at 170. Stoking Davis' fire with all the shit talk isn't going to improve his odds either. Davis looks good for a standard chalk bet in this fight.

Pick: Marcus Davis via Submission
Bet: 2 units to win 1

Spencer Fisher (-200 Sportsbook) vs Caol Uno (+175 BetUS)
Jesus, Caol has been fighting since 1996 and looks like...well not to beat a dead horse, but he looks like an asian Courtney Love after buying crack. Really, how is Uno still getting fights? How is he still relevent in the UFC lightweight division? He's best remembered for having his face rearranged by BJ Penn back in 2003. After that he's been hanging around K-1 working on pulling out decisions and occasionally falling unconsious.


Fisher will bring his non stop standup attack, backed up with a solid ground game and the ability to escape from most submission attemps. He'll also be stronger, faster, and just barely prettier. Easy win for Fisher.

Pick: fisher via TKO
Bet: 2 units to win 1

Terry Etim (-350 BetUS) vs Justin Buchholz (+300 Bodog)
Etim has looked pretty good, but his losses to Tibau, and freaken Clementi it's obvious he needs some work. On the flip side Justin has a loss to flipp'n Matt Wiman. What I'm saying is, both fighters have work to do.

Etim has the most well rounded fight game of the two and definitely a bit of a reach advantage. Buchholz has a more powerful striking game. This one is tough to call, I'm leaning toward Etim because he has more ways to win but the odds offer no value. So I'll just watch this one

Dennis Siver (-125 BetUS) vs Dale Hartt (-115 BetUS)
Both are pretty new to the scene, with good and bad fights under their belt. speaking of belts, Hartt informed us at the UFC web site that his one martial arts ranking is a BJJ white belt...Well at least he's honest. Quick pick for Siver simply based on strength and wresteling, but I'm happy to just let this one go.

Paul Taylor (-600 BetUS) vs Peter Sobotta (+300 BetUS)
Taylor is one of those very good fighters who always has exciting fights but unfortunately has ended up with a losing UFC record. Sobotta is making his UFC debut in his home country. Peter looks to be a well rounded fighter and hopes the backing of his country will bring him a win and of course more fights in the UFC. No bet here either, I have to pick Taylor in this fight but never having seen Sobotta fight I have no recommendation.

Paul Kelly (-400 BookMaker) vs Rolando Delgado (+325 BetUS)
Kelly is probably the best fighter on this undercard and that's mostly because he's just so damn tough. Paul is very skilled but he takes punishment without blinking and returns the favor with double the intensity.

OK that's enough the other two fights likely won't be seen and honestly I don't have enough info on any of them to make any sort of predictions. Have a good night of fights.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

4 comments to ''UFC 99 Betting Odds and Analysis"

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  1. Anonymous10:42 AM

    You are not giving Uno NEARLY enough credit. Should someone who only follows UFC really have a blog giving others advice? MMA is a global sport..

    ReplyDelete
  2. I've followed MMA for a very long time and I'm well aware of Uno's past and current fights. No he's not been fighting cans on his way back into the UFC lights.

    He's just small for the division especially this matchup and he's been beat down. Like Wandi, Chuck, others that have been through 13 years of wars, a fighters body breaks down quicker, their chins get weaker and they just plain more susesptable to being unconsious.

    Does Uno have skills, of course, tremendous wrestling, speed, tight subs and a wealth of experience, but when he steps back into the UFC with the top fighters in the world the scars of his past will become evident...well at least that's what I think.

    Joe Silva is a pretty smart guy though and maybe he still sees Uno being a real presence in the lightweight division. I'm sure he's planning BJ vs Uno 3!?!?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous6:59 AM

    Well you went from insulting him in your analysis, to acknowledging his skills and accomplishments now.

    I am not an Uno fan necessarily and I think this is a toss up... I don't see Uno climbing to the top of the division (although I can definitely see Uno/BJ 3 if BJ loses to Florian) but I just thought you were way too harsh considering Uno has looked pretty damn good lately.

    ReplyDelete
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