Diego Sanchez (-295 Bodog) vs Clay Guida (+235 Bodog)
This fight is shaping up to be an uber-paced lightweight battle that will cover every facet of the game. Guida has made himself a fixture in the UFC by putting on exciting fights and never getting out worked. He's primarily know for his wrestling, scramble and ability to push the action. Guida however is not typically a finisher and in this fight he's up against someone who can match his pace and wrestling skills. Overall, Sanchez has just a slightly higher probability of finishing a fight either by TKO or submission and in his second fight at 155 he's going to have a strength and reach advantage over Guida.
For Guida his best bet is to out work Diego, and to carefully work his GnP. It's very unlikely that he can finish Sanchez via TKO or submission. On the flip Diego's best shot is also to maintain control, but he does have a moderate chance of finishing Guida via submission. Guida has never suffered a TKO and it's pretty unlikely that Sanchez will be the first.
This looks to be a decent chalk bet on Sanchez for 1 unit...Meaning place a normal bet size that your bankroll can afford...If it's $5 or $1,000 that's up to you.
You wanna make a bet....
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