Date: Saturday, August 29, 2009, at 10 p.m. ET on pay-per-view (PPV)
Location: Rose Garden in Portland, Oregon

Main event:
265 lbs.: Randy Couture (-170 bodog) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+150 BetUS) Never bet against Couture, it's a cliché, but it's true in this fight. Couture is currently a -170 favorite and in a perfect match up against Big Nog. In all aspects of the fight Randy has the edge except in submission skills. His strength, grappling skill, and takedown defense will nullify Nogueira’s only option for a win. Randy won’t be out-boxed, out-wrestled, out-worked, or tapped out on this night.
Couture via TKO, Bet 1.7 units to win 1.

Main card (Televised):
205 lbs.: Keith Jardine (-150 Bodog) vs. Thiago Silva (+125 BetUS)
This is a great fight, both guys are strong for the division and very aggressive. Thiago has not faced as varied and strong of competition as Jardine so he’s coming in as a slight dog at +125 (BetUS). Jardine’s power and stand up skill should reign supreme in this fight. Thiago’s bread and butter ground and pound won’t work against the Dean of Mean. Another good chalk bet.
Jardine via decision, bet 1.5 units to win 1.

185 lbs.: Chris Leben (-150 Bodog) vs. Jake Rosholt (+125 BetUS)
Rosholt is completely unproven, lost his UFC debut against Dan Miller and yet he's coming in as only a slight dog.Leben may be a bit of freak and has had some problems in the past, but he's an excellent and dangerous fighter who will hold a heavy advantage in most aspects of this fight. Get on this one quick.
Leben via KO, bet 3 units to win 2

185 lbs.: Nate Marquardt (-160 BetUS) vs. Demian Maia (+130 Bet US)
***Dog Bet ALERT *** Demian Maia is unbeaten (10-0) including 5 wins in the UFC and he's been the favorite in every UFC fight he's had. Just in terms of the odds you have to make this bet. Match up wise Marquardt has the advantage in the stand up but his typical win actually comes through ground control or submission. Yes his last two wins were TKO's, but that doesn't translate against Maia, who has proven against strikers and grapplers that he can avoid damage and finish the fight.
Maia via submission, bet 2 units to win 2.6

205 lbs.: Krzysztof Soszynski (+165 5Dimes) vs. Brandon Vera (-170 BetUS)
Krzsysztof is flying high on a 6 fight win streak including 3 big UFC wins. Vera showed so much potential with exciting wins over the last three years but his losses always leave you scratching your head. First we all thought he needed to head down to 205, then he did and ran into Jardine losing a tough split decision. His Muy Thai prowess will be the key to a win. Krz has a similar awkward style as Jardine, he'll also have a slight power advantage. The power advantage won't translate to another Kimura agianst Vera though. Vera's head is my biggest question in this fight and although I'm going to pick him to win I'm avoiding a bet.
Vera via TKO, Bet none.

Under card (May not be broadcast):
265 lbs.: Gabriel Gonzaga (-350 BetUS) vs. Chris Tuchscherer (+295 5Dimes)
Gonzaga’s been TKO’d in three of his last five fights, but this time he’s facing a straight up wrestler. Chris is a huge lurpey bastard, that has mauled his way to a 17-1 record. This will be his UFC debut and the shock of that combined with the skill of Gonzaga should make for loss number 2 on his record.
Gonzaga via submision, bet none

185 lbs.: Ed Herman (-135 Bodog) vs. Aaron Simpson (+120 BetUS)
Gouviea is out Simpson is in...Good news for Herman right? The odds say no. Simpson is coming in unbeaten winning every fight via TKO or KO, including one of each in the WEC and the UFC. Herman prefers to make a grappling match out of this one but he’s facing a great wrestler with even better striking. Simpson is the dog mostly due to name recognition. This is a good dog bet opportunity.

265 lbs.: Mike Russow (-250 5Dimes) vs. Justin McCully (+225 Bodog)
Kill Justin the "Turd" McCully! ...that's all I have to say.

265 lbs.: Todd Duffee (4-0) vs. Tim Hague (10-1) Mehhh
205 lbs.: Nick Catone (7-1) vs. Mark Munoz (5-1) Mehhh
155 lbs.: Marcus Aurelio (18-7) vs. Evan Dunham (8-0) Mehhh 

You Wanna Make a Bet.......
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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