Spencer fisher (23-4) has only lost 3 decisions to Stout, Edgar, and Prater. Spencer also has one TKO loss to Hermes Franca, but it is pretty clear that injuries and infection played a role in his performance. The competition he's faced in both the middleweight and lightweight divisions have been very solid over all. His wins are fairly evenly split between TKO's and submissions, including impressive wins against Thiago Silva (MW) Sam Stout (LW) and Caol Uno (LW). Fisher has never been submitted and has shown a tremendous ability to outwork his opponents and finish fights.
It's a wealth of experience and wins stacked up against Joe Stevenson's (30-10) lengthy but less impressive showing. Since he started with the UFC in 2005 he's only won 63% of his fights and in his last 5 fights he has only won 2! His win record is pretty much submission or decision with only one TKO in the UFC coming by way of cut stoppage against Yves Edwards.
Match-up wise Fisher has a strong advantage on the feet and stands about even on the ground. Remember Fisher has never been submitted while Stevenson (the black belt) has been subbed 4 times. Many point to Joe's wrestling as the likely deciding factor in this fight, but if you watched Fisher against Uno, it was a great reminder of how slick and fast the "King" is.
Unless there's an injury that I'm unaware of, I see no reason to have Spencer Fisher sitting at a 2 to 1 dog. With or without the odds Fisher would be my pick in this fight.
Prediction: Spencer Fisher via decision
Bet: 200 to win 400 units
You wanna make a bet....