Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (-400 BetUS) vs. Ben “Smooth” Henderson (+300 BetUS) WEC Interim Lightweight Title Fight

With Jamie Varner on the injured role, this fight for the interim belt, features Cerrone looking ahead and not at the fight on hand.

The “Cowboy” holds the superior skill set and a solid size and reach advantage. If he brings all of his tools to bear in this fight he should at least get the decision. The one area most give an advantage to Henderson is on the ground. Ben has a very solid finishing BJJ game, but he has something else...Heart. I’d liken him to Roger Heurta, but with more polish. When he gets rocked or put in a bad position you can tell it just pisses him off and he’s willing to do anything to overcome.

Cerrone’s size and overall skill should let him dictate where this fight goes, but if he looses focus for one minute Henderson will maul him like a rabid wombat.

So at +300 is it worth a bet on Henderson? Only if you keep it to a max of 10-15% of your total bets on this event. Probabilities put this one on the edge of having value.

Prediction: Donald Cerrone via Decision; Bet none...OR Bet 20 to win 60 units (Henderson).

Rich Crunkilton (-125 Bodog) vs. Dave Jansen (-105 Bodog)

Two very solid fighters with strong ground games. Jansen is making his WEC debut, but not as a rookie. Crunkilton holds an impressive record but he’s coming off a very long layoff.

If they were both fighting at there best Crunkilton should win, but ring rust and conditioning will be the deciding factor in this one.

Prediction: Dave Jansen via decision. Bet 105 to win 100 units.

Damacio “The Angel of Death” Page (-365 Bodog) vs Will Campuzano (+285 Bodog)

Campuzano is yet another guy making his debut in the WEC. He boasts an impressive 6-0 record and has never been past the second round. He’s stepping in against a proven killer.

Jackson trained, Page is coming off a very quick knockout victory over Marcos Galvao, at WEC 39. His only loss in three WEC fights is to current champion, Brian Bowles.

Look for a fantastic explosive fight and in the end Page’s speed and well rounded game will be the Death of Campuzano.

Prediction: Damacio Page via TKO. Bet 182.5 to win 50 units

Raphael Assuncao (-650 Bodog) vs. Yves “Tiger” Jabouin (+450 Bodog)

Assuncao is a BJJ specialist with 5 years of fighting in the bag and only one loss to show for it. Although this is only his second fight in the WEC he’s faced a variety of solid opponents and found ways to get through almost all of them.

Jabouin finds himself in his first WEC bout. His standup is definitely his strength with 11 of his 14 wins coming by way of TKO. Yves trains with a bunch of nobodys like GSP asnd Loiseau. In a recent interview Georges said,

"I'm fast but he's up here, he's much faster than I....He wil bring speed that has not been seen yet at 145."

Size is another significant issue Assucao's typical game plan with strikers has of course been take it to the ground and submit, while Yves has only had problems when he fought at 155 with larger fighters eventually over powering him. However when size was not an issue he has show not just a strong defensive ground game but great takedowns, wrestling and submissions.

I see Jabouin having two important advantages, power and speed. Always remember speed kills. The odds on this fight are very out of whack and I have to reccommend another Dog Bet on this one.

Prediction: Yves Jabouin via TKO. Bet 100 to win 450 units

Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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