WEC 46 Betting Odds and Predictions

By Paul Monday, December 28, 2009
World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) goes down in Arco Arena in Sacramento, California on Sunday January 10. The main card promises some barn burners, especially the main event. Top billing goes to lightweight champion Jamie "C-4" Varner and interim title holder Ben "Smooth" Henderson.  Who will unify the belts?Tune in to the Versus network  at 9 p.m. ET and find out for yourself live.

Jamie Varner (-145 Bodog) vs. Benson Henderson (+115 Bodog)

The betting line shows that this should be a close fight, and the matchup says excitment as well. Two high engery fighters with strong wrestling. I know wrestling can be the start of boring but, in this fight their wrestling abilities will make for endless transitions escapes and exchanges of control. Both fighters have great heart and drive. As their wrestling skills cancel each other out, look to the standup to decide this one. Things should get pretty wild as this fight goes on.

If that holds true, Varner's power and crisp technique should give him an edge. Henderson however, is a stone wall and very difficult to finish. As this fight moves past round three we'll see how Varner fairs after a 1 year hiatus due to a broken hand. Henderson will likely have the cardio advantage, the question will be can he translate that into a dominating preformance. No one should underestimate Ben's striking, we just haven't seen him use it often, but it's good and if Varner fades at all Ben walks away with the unified title.

There's no great value in the odds for either side and barring the question of Varner's conditioning, the match up points to the odds being true and Jamie should pull out the desicion. But I don't roll like that, I have a feeling that Henderson is going to determine his own fate on Sunday. Look for lots of action in this fight but not much in the way of certainty in the out come.

Prediction: Henderson via Submission, Bet 100 to win 115

Urijah Faber (-400 BetUS) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+375 Bodog)
Faber is still the elite of this division and unfortunately, Assucao is not. There's not a lot to talk about here, the betting line says Faber should win 80% of the time and honestly it whould be closer to 90%. It may not sound lilke a great value, but Faber will only lose this fight via another injury, or freak accident and the odds of that happening...again are way less than 20%. Easy chalk bet.

Prediction: Faber via TKO, Bet 800 to win 200

Mike Brown (-800 BetUS) vs. Anthony Morrison (+500 BetUS)
Wow, stratospheric odds for this fight.  Brown was recently embarrassed by Jose Aldo and now he's poised to take his vengance out on WEC newcomer, Morrison. ATT trained, Mike Brown, will be well equiped to expose "cheesesteak's" weakness on the ground. Brown's 12 submission finishes are just a prelude to how this fight may go. But, if for some reason it does stay on the feet Morrison, who see's himself as primarily a striker, will discover the power of one of the strongest fighters in the 145 lb. division.

This one is set to be a route but unfortunately the odds are too much for me to bear. An easy prediction and an easy no bet.

Prediction: Brown via Submission, Bet None

145 lbs.: Mackens Semerzier (-120 BetUS) vs. Deividas Taurosevicius (+150 BetUS)
Semerzier debuted for the WEC by upsetting jiu jitsu ace Wagnney Fabiano with a first round submission win back in October. Now he's facing another vetran submission fighter Taurosevicius.  Deividas is a much more well rounded and technical fighter than Macken's last opponent. Mackens will have the physical and athletic advantage, but it's still very early to know how his raw talent will hold up at this level of competition.

The books have Semerier set as the favorite and some of that may be how convincing his last win was combined with him just being a likeable fighter. He's got a bit of the Anothony Johnson factor: you can just sense something exciting can happen when he fights.

It's a tough call but I think Semerzier will let his hand go and soften Deivvidas up and by the third round Mackens will have found his range and broken his opponent down. Small bet on the favorite.

Prediction: Semerzier via TKO, Bet 60 to win 50

You wanna make a bet......
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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