UFC 107 Betting Odds and Analysis

By Paul Saturday, December 12, 2009

Desert Dog's Pick for UFC 107:

Main card picks:

BJ Penn -275 (Bet 550 win 200) Bodog
Cheick Kongo +180 (Bet 100 win 180) Bodog
Jon Fitch -400  (Bet 1200 win 300)  BetUS
Kenny Florian -210 (No Bet)
Stefan Struve -135 (Bet 135 win 100) BetUS

Undercard Picks:

Wilson Gouveia (-105)
Matt Wiman (-340)
Johnny Hendricks (-500)
Rousimar Palhares (-340)
Edgar Garcia (-265)
T.J. Grant (-130)

B.J. Penn (-275 Bodog) vs. Diego Sanchez (+220 BetUS)

(21-2 MMA, 10-2 UFC) holds a black belt in Greg Jackson's Gaidojutsu  as well as a brown belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Saulo Ribeiro. In terms of meeting betting expectations Sanchez has pulled out the vicotry in every fight he was favored in and lost each fight he was the underdog in (+150 vs Fitch for example). Expectations put Diego on the bottom in this match up

B.J. Penn (14-5-1 MMA, 10-4-1 UFC) needs little introduction, widely regarded as one of the most talented fighters in the sport and one of its best pound for pound. Penn is one of the most talented in the world at Brazilian jiu jitsu and is widely considered world-class in two others: takedown defense, due to his flexibility and balance, and boxing, where he's been praised by elite boxing trainer Freddy Roach as "by far the best striker in MMA." As for meeting beting expectations he's an animal, never losing as the favorite and only losing one fight as the dog.

The betting odds are aligned for this to be a strong canidate for a chalk (favorite) bet. Style wise this fight works out in Penn's advantage as well.

Prediction: Penn via Submission, Bet 550 to win 200

Frank Mir (-200 5Dimes) vs. Cheick Kongo (+180 Bodog)

Frank Mir (12-4 MMA, 10-4 UFC) is a skilled grappler and holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu jitsu under Ricardo Pires. Mir has long been known for having  cardio, lacking wrestling skills and elite striking skills. His results related to his betting odds have been mixed, with better preformances when he's been the under dog and moderate success as the favorite. his most recent win over Noguera was considered a fluke due to illness by most.

Cheick Kongo (14-5-1 MMA, 7-3 UFC) is a chiseled peice of manhood, with strong kickboxing skills but poor (yet improving) wrestling. Kongo's standup has been dominant, and he has been able to translate it into a solid ground and pound game. in his ground game. His betting history has shown him to be a woth while underdog bet, winning 2 of his last three fights in which he was listed as a dog and winning all of the fights he was favored in over the last 3 years.

Kongo has the most probable tools to win this fight and has shown over the lst couple of years he's a worthy bet as an under dog. If Mir had any sort of a wrestling game it would be a different story.

Prediction: Kongo by TKO,  Bet 100 to win 180

Jon Fitch (-400 BetUS) vs. Mike Pierce (+355 5Dimes)

Jon Fitch (18-3 MMA, 9-1 UFC) is a supreme wrestler and grappler. He holds a black belt in jiu jitsu under Dave Camarillo, and has only been beaten by Georges St-Pierre ( His only fight listed as an underdog too). fitch has NEVER lost as a favorite and proves time and again to be as close to a lock as you will find.

Mike Pierce (10-1 MMA, 1-0 UFC), also a very strong wrestler, will be facing the test of his fighting career.

Originally This was set to be Fitch vs Ricardo Almeida (11-3 MMA, 4-3 UFC) at UFC 106 in November. When Almeida was forced to withdraw due to injury, Fitch was bumped to the UFC 107 to face fellow top contender Thiago Alves. Unfortunately, Alves was also forced to withdraw after an injury.

Plain and simple Fitch is 100% as a favorite and there's no reason to believe he won't dominate in every facit of this fight. Jon will be my anchor bet for this event.

Prediction: Fitch via submission, Bet 1200 to win 300. 
Ken Florian (-210 BetUS) vs. Clay Guida (+180 Bodog)

This one should go according to the odds. Guida is an animal, but a wild animal. Florian's measured and technical game should be able to overtake Guida's relentless vigor. The odds are a bit shy of true value and although I believe Florian will win, I'm leaning more toward a 60% chance and therefore I don't see any expected value in a chalk bet here.

Prediction Florian via Decision, Bet None

Stefan Struve (-130 BetUS) vs. Paul Buentello (-115)

Paul Buentello (27-10 MMA, 3-1 UFC) faces Stefan Struve (18-3 MMA, 2-1 UFC) on this bout that opens the main card. Struve is filling in for the injured Todd Duffee on a month's notice. Many fans are suprised that this fight maintained main card status over other solid fights on the card.

Both fighters represent almost total unknowns at this point. Buentello is having managierial issues as well as the fact that he hasn't been seen in the UFC for 3+ years. He's usually game for any match up, but Struve is a unique specimen. Coming in at nearly 7 feet tall and sporting a hell of a submission game.

However you line this one up it should be an intriguing fight with a very uncertain outcome. Great for entertainment not for betting. Still I have little faith in Paul's current situation and his ability to get past the reach of a 7 footer. Small bet here on Struve.

Prediction: Sturve via Submission, Bet 130 to win 100

Preliminary card: No interesting bets here.

•Alan Belcher (-125) vs. Wilson Gouveia (-105)
•Matt Wiman (-340) vs. Shane Nelson (+260)
•Johnny Hendricks (-500) vs. Ricardo Funch (+325)
•Rousimar Palhares (-340) vs. Lucio Linhares (+260)
•DaMarques Johnson (+205) vs. Edgar Garcia (-265)
•Kevin Burns (+100) vs. T.J. Grant (-130)

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

1 comment to ''UFC 107 Betting Odds and Analysis"

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  1. hey, you finally had a pretty decent event here :P

    nice results.

    ReplyDelete