UFC 109: Betting Odds for Dan Miller vs Demian Maia Widen

By Paul Tuesday, February 02, 2010
Over the last month betting lines on Maia vs Miller have spread. Maia initially opened at -320 at 5 Dimes and BetUS, now he's sitting as high as -500 at Bodog. Of course, the opposite is true for Miller who opened at +250 at most books and is now going for +350 at Bodog.

The betting pulic is looking at the history of one common opponent Chael Sonnen, Maia beat him and Miller lost to him. Chael does not translate as an opponent though. Sonnen is a strong wrestler with good ground-n-pound. It does show that Maia handled that level of wrestler better, but it's not the game plan either fighter will bring for this match up.

Although Miller usually wins via submission, he's going to look to keep this fight standing, especially after seeing Maia blink out so quickly against Marquardt. If Maia can't secure a sub his style often fades after the first round leaving him prone to losing the points game.

I don't see a great fight, Miller's submission experience will be just enough to keep him alive and his wrestling and striking could be just enough to eek out a desicion. Or Maia will continue pulling gaurd etc and find an opening for a sub. Miller has won 2 of 3 fights when listed as the under dog... So I'm saying I like this for a small dog bet, everything adds up for a shot.

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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