The betting lines for the full UFC on Versus card have been released by BetUS and 5 Dimes, so I'm posting some quick thoughts on the fights and their value from a betting perspective. From a fight fan perspective, this is just a great card and I hope several of the undercard fights make it to the broadcast.

UFC on Versus Main Card:

Jon Jones (-240 5Dimes) vs Brandon Vera (+200 BetUS)
Great fight, with good value on Jones. Jones has the talent and physical attributes to finish Vera in a variety of ways. This will be my anchor bet for this card. Jones' odds have been as good as -225 but that was quickly bought up. Look for the odds to stay at this level or get slightly better by fight day.

Junior Dos Santos (-255 5Dimes) vs Gabriel Gonzaga (+210 BetUS)
Another great fight. This one has everyone hoping to see Dos Santos ground game. I think his power and speed will be too much for Gonzaga with another early finish. The betting value is marginal, but still worth it.

Cheik Kongo (-400 BetUS) vs Paul Buenttello (+330 5Dimes)
Not that great of a fight. Cheick should take this one, but at -400 there's no value for a chalk bet.

Alessio Sakara (+120 BetUS) vs James Irvin (-150 BetUS)
It's Irvin's first fight back after his 9-month drug suspension for pain meds. It will also be Irvin's first fight at 185 lbs. I like James to win this fight in terms of speed, power, and general agrresion. Unfortunately...the "Sandman" is just one of those cursed fighters that I don't bet on anymore. I hope he has a great fight but I'm avoiding his bad voodoo mojo.

Undercard:

John Howard (-240 5Dimes) vs Daniel Roberts (+200 BetUS)
Howard finally had a convincing win in his last fight, getting a KO over Dennis Hallman. Still his toughest UFC fight was against Tamdan McCrory and he took that by split decision. Daniel Roberts is a very dynamic submission specialist making his UFC debut with a 9-0 record. Although he's a bit of an unknown to most there's significant value in a small dog bet on Roberts. Do a little research and see for yourself.

Clay Guida (-380 5Dimes) vs Shannon Gugerty (+300 BetUS)
Clay says this one is win or walk and he's probably right. Although Guida is always in exciting fights, he just can't pull out the wins against A level fighters. Gugerty is not an A level fighter and his only real threat in this fight is via submission. Guida has to be hurt to be subbed, otherwise he'll just take Shannon down and go ape shit on him. No betting value for me.
Darren Elkins (+150 BetUS) vs Duane Ludwig (-172 BetUS) Elkins is in to replace Spencer Fisher against "Bang" Ludwig. Elkins brings an impressive 11-1 record to the cage for his UFC debut. Elkins is best know for his submissions and wrestling. Duane has run into some tuff competition over the last three years -- accounting for his 3-3 record in that time period are losses to Jim Miller, Takanori Gomi, and even Paul Daley. His primary weapon is a very technical and fast striking arsenal. His weakness however has been on the ground. The odds seem pretty close to true for this fight giving Elkins basically a 33% chance of locking up a submission. Not much value here, no bet for me.

Eliot Marshall (
+160 BetUS) vs Vladimir Matyushenko (-195 5Dimes)
Eliot Marshal was well recieved after his time on TUF and his record has continued to improve. He's big for the 205 division and uses his size well to dominate his opponents. Vladi is now 39 years old and holds a wealth of experience, not to mention he's only lost 4 of his 27 fights. However even though he won his last fight, he's starting to show his age in the cage. His cardio is slipping and he's quickly realizing that he has already seen the best of his fight days. I see Marshall's power and hunger overwhelming Vladi for a decision. This is a decent dogbet for the night.

Chase Gormely (+160 BetUS) vs Brendan Schaub (-195 5Dimes)
Gormely lost his UFC debut to Stephan Struve, but he looked ok, for the first 2 minutes. Schaub also looked good for the first two minutes of his fight before getting the shit knocked out of him. Schaub has the athletic advantage, but Gormely has the experience advantage and the odds here whould be even. There's just not a lot of info on these two but, if you're going to bet on this fight, the only value play is the dogbet on Gormely.

Mike Pierce (-380 5Dimes) vs Julio Paulino (+300 BetUS)
Paulino is yet another replacement fighter making a UFC debut. Julio has an impressive record of 17-2 with most of his wins coming by KO including the recent destruction of Rob Yundt and Teri Martin. This dude has some serious power and a very respectable grappling/submission game to boot. Pierce was fed to Jon Fitch is just his second UFC fight, losing a decesion, but impressing fans. Due to name recognition and this being a replacement fight there is no value in a bet on Peirce, but Paulino is a very game opponent and actually offers up one of the best dogbets on the card due to the elevated odds.
Eric Schafer (+130 BetUS) vs Jason Brilz (-160 BetUS)
Ah Schafer, the poor red-headed stepchild. His ability to finish with submissions is really impressive, unfortunately if someone can keep it standing he tends to get the schooled. Brilz has a very solid ground game that should nulify Schafer, and his standup is good enough to work "Red" over. I will say Schafer is feeling very underated these days and will likely come out with a vengance. Just not quite enough intrigue for me to bet on either side.


You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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