WEC featherweight championship
Jose "Junior" Aldo (-280 BetUS) vs. Urijah "The California Kid" Faber(+225 Bodog)

WEC 48 Faber vs AldoAldo is likely the most feared striker in the division, some sharp BJJ, and amazing takedown defense, just ask the incredibly strong Mike Brown who was unable to get him down. Jose Aldo looks to be unbeatable in this division, but then again so did BJ Penn.

Urijah Faber must implement a ground control game plan. He can not win standing and trading, so he must overcome Aldo’s takedown defense and break him. It’s not impossible, we just haven’t seen it yet.

At less than –300 I think a bet on Aldo has value. Faber’s speed maybe able to catch up with Aldo, but I think Aldo’s legs will keep the fight where he wants it. No matter what this should be one hell of a fight.

Prediction: Jose Aldo via TKO; Bet 560 to win 200 at BetUS 

WEC lightweight championship
Ben "Smooth" Henderson (-105 Bodog) vs. Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (-125 Bodog)

WEC 48 Henderson vs Cerrone Although Henderson won the first fight, the odds makers still have this as an even fight with Donald Cerrone carrying a tiny edge.

Henderson, showed superior wrestling, takedowns, submission defense, and straight up heart in the last fight. So has anything changed?

The "Cowboy," will need to tweak his strategy by avoiding the takedown, and being even more aggressive from his back. Although he holds a huge reach advantage, it’s quickly muted by the combination of Henderson’s kicks and smothering takedowns. To make this strategy work he has to start fast, move a lot, but keep it aggressive.

The one new advantage Cerrone has is Greg Jackson in his corner with the insight of their last fight. I’m sure Jackson’s game plan is a winner, as long as Cerrone can implement it.

The odds have value for a bet in either direction, which is great for a championship fight. So go with your gut on this one. Mine is with the heart of Henderson.

Prediction: Ben “Smooth” Henderson via UD. Bet 105 to win 100 at Bodog.

Mike Brown (-600 Bodog) vs. Manny "The Pitbull" Gamburyan (+400 Bodog)

Gamuryan vs Brown WEC48 The two strongest 145’ers in the world meet up with very similar fight strategies...oooh what will happen. Will both fighters alter their strategy or will they simply clash, strength against strength.

Interestingly the odds makers aren’t giving Gamburyan much of a chance to win, but I see this as a very even match up that will be won by aggression and game planning. In my eyes that gives a bet on Gamburyan a big ‘ol pile of value.

Brown is a better technical striker but both have KO power. Watch for Manny to go ape shit in the first round, this will either win him the fight or cost him the fight.

If this fight goes the distance I think Brown is more likely to win. But, if Manny can catch a huge bomb or work in a submission early...obviously he will take it. Odds of –600 are out of the question so my only option if I bet on this fight is a dog bet on Manny Gambuyran via ape shit attack!

Prediction: Manny Gamburyan via ASA; Bet 100 to win 400 at Bodog.
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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