Main card picks:

Frank Mir -220 (Bet 110 win 50) 5Dimes 
Rogererio Nogueira +150 (Bet 100 win 150) 5Dimes
Chris Lytle -130 (Bet 130 win 100) 5Dimes
Evan Dunham -240 (Bet 120 win 50) Bodog
Melvin Guilard -160 (Bet 80 win 50)  BetPhoenix
Undercard Picks:

CB Dollaway -330 5Dimes 
Joey Beltran +130 (Bet 65 win 100) 5Dimes 
Julio Paulino +145 (Bet 100 win 145) 5Dimes 
Thiago Tavares -250 Bodog 
Sean McCorkle +200 (Bet 100 win 200) 5Dimes 
Steve Lopez -115 BetPhoenix

Frank Mir (-220 5Dimes) vs. Mirko Cro Cop (+215 Bodog) 
Well I think the pros have this one right. Frank Mir has the larger arsenal and he's the only one that will fully show up at this fight. We all want to see the destructive Cro Cop of Pride but that man is long gone.

Mir's Boxing will counter Mirko's stand up and his ground game will be enough to finish it. I think there's enough value here for a half unit chalk bet.
Prediction: Mir via submission, Bet 110 to win 50

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+155 Bodog ) vs. Mirko Cro Cop (-165 5Dimes) 
When I first listened to the opinion of other MMA fighter pointing to Bader's superior wrestling I bought it. But, as I look at this match up and there experience I can't agree.

Nogerueira has vast experience against the most elite fighters in the division, he's on a seven fight win streak, an Olympic medal in boxing, and the best wrestler he's beaten was Dan Henderson during his Pride hay-day. Suffice it to say he has the tools to handle takedowns.

Bader is unbeaten but his most decisive win was a KO of Jardine who we now see developed a very questionable chin. Wrestling will not defeat a true veteran like lil nog.

Prediction: Nogueira via submission, Bet 100 win 150

Chris Lytle (-130 5Dimes) vs. Matt Serra (+115 Bodog) 
A rematch I'm excited to see. The first time was far from a barn burner, but it lead to the biggest upset in the history of UFC title fights when Serra took GSP's belt with a relentless TKO. Both fighters have gone on to show they are exciting and not to be overlooked.

Serra has lost two key fights, the GSP rematch and the Hughes fight. The Hughes fight could have been decided either way. His TKO of  "baldylocks" was a reminder of his power.

The Ground game will again be a wash, sol look to Lytle to stay outside this time and light Serra up with his slight reach advantage. Lytle's ability to turn up the intensity will decide this fight in the last round.

Prediction: Lytle via decision, Bet 65 to win 50


Evan Dunham (-220 Bodog) vs. Sean Sherk (+190 Bodog) 
Really, Sean? I'm sorry. You're an athlete and a great wrestler, but your days are done. Sherk's boxing only work if someone is on their back or answers to "hey little guy". People point to his only losses coming to champions, OK, that should make him feel better, but it doesn't help me. Sherk has only fought 3 times since early 2008, he's 1 of 3 in those two years, and it's been 16 months since his last fight.

The final nail in the coffin is that he's fighting Dunham, who has every tool needed to beat the T-rex type...long powerful striking, great wrestling, and a submission game that finishes fights

Easy chalk bet on Dunham and this win will pave the way to a new level of competition for Dunham.

Prediction: Dunham via TKO, Bet 110 to win 50

My other picks include Guillard, who should win an exciting slugfest; Joey Beltran who will remind us that Mitrione is overrated for his level of experience; and Julio Paulino who is an unknown to many but will be solidly on the radar after taking out TJ Grant.

***Speaking of over rated, Mark Hunt comes to the UFC with a losing record topped off with losing his last 5 fights. He hasn't been in a fight in a year and a half, yet he's coming in as a  2 to 1 favorite! Holy shit people.

Hunt is facing an unbeaten 6'7" monster, named Sean McCorkle, who has finish all but one of his fights. This is the UFC debut for both fighters but Hunt is more accustomed to the bright lights, that's about the only thing I can put in the positive column for Hunt.

***This is my top dogbet for UFC 119: Sean McCorkle +200, bet 100 to win 200 at 5Dimes


You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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