Rich Franklin vs Forrest Griffin Betting Odds and Analysis for UFC 126

By Paul Monday, January 31, 2011
Rich Franklin (-170 Bodog)   vs   Forrest Griffin (+145 5Dimes)
Record: 28-5-0Record: 17-6-0
15 (T)KO’s (53.6%)3 (T)KO’s (17.7%)
10 Submissions (35.7%)7 Submissions (41.2%)
3 Decisions (10.7%)7 Decisions (41.2%)
4 (T)KO’s (80%)4 (T)KO’s (80%)
0 Submissions (0%)0 Submissions (0%)
1 Decision  (20%)2 Decision  (20%)
Height: 6’1”Height: 6’3”
Reach: 76”Reach: 77”

Fight Match up Edge: None
It’s hard to find two more similar fighters. Both define themselves as well rounded, with Franklin having slightly better striking and Forrest have an edge in grappling and Jiu-Jitsu.

Both fighters have unpredictable styles, a tenacious attitude, and get better as the fight goes on. For this match up Franklin won’t have the size advantage he was use to at 185, instead he will have to focus on movement and picking Forrest apart. Forrest is a very big 205’r and he’ll need to focus on that advantage to work the clinch and move toward ground control.

The reality is that Forrest likes to strike and he doesn’t always remember to look to his strength on the ground until it’s too late.

Training/Conditioning Edge: Rich Franklin - Thumbs up
Both fighters are cardio machines and love to train. Forrest continues to train at Team Xtreme Couture and holds a black-belt in BJJ. On the down side for Griffin, he’s been off for 14 months recovering from shoulder surgery. Don’t expect him to gas, but he’s voiced concerns about coming in with significant ring rust, likely meaning a slower start and less sharpness in his technique.

Rich Trains with Matt Hume and Joel Jamieson and holds a brown-belt in BJJ from his little buddy Jorge Gorgel. Franklin is 7 months out from his last fight where he suffered a broken arm from a Liddell kick. Fortunately the injury didn’t require surgery and his recovery was much faster than Griffin’s. Rich gets a slight edge in this area just due to having less time off in the last year.

Vegas Edge: Rich Franklin - Thumbs upThumbs up 
The betting public is very interested in Forrest as an underdog.
*Percent of bets on Forrest Griffin - 68%

Trends Edge: Rich Franklin  - 
- Forrest is  2-2 when listed as an underdog (since 2007)
- Rich is 5-3 when listed as the favorite (since 2007)
- Rich has finished the fight in 90% of his wins 
- Forrest has finished the fight in 60% of his wins
- Forrest is on a 1 fight win streak
- Rich is on a 1 fight win streak

Desert Dog’s Pick: Rich Franklin via decision
Best Bet: 1.7 units to win 1 at Bodog Sportsbook

Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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