UFC Fight Night 23 Betting Odds

By Paul Monday, January 10, 2011

Melvin Guillard (+200 BetUS) vs. Evan Dunham (-260 BetUS)  - 155 lbs
This fight doesn't hold any title stakes, but it should be an action packed bout. Guillard is coming off his most controlled performance to date pulling out a split decision against power striker Jeremy Stephens. Guillard's downfall over his entire career has been submission defense. All but one of his losses have come by way of the tap and his opponent has all the tools to pull off one more.

Evan should be a 12-0 fighter, but he was handed his first loss last September against Sean Sherk in an inexplicable split decision that he clearly dominated...but that's another discussion. Evan has good striking and a solid chin, but he won't want to test that against Guillard's speed and power. Evan will look to his superior submission game to both control this fight and get a finish. Going the distance has been Dunham's weak point, as 3 of his 5 UFC fights have gone to the cards and resulted in split decisions.

This is a great test for both fighters they each have the tools to win and defend against the others style. It comes down to who will make a mistake. On paper Guillard should be able to keep the fight standing with his speed, striking, and very strong wrestling. Melvin's history suggests that even with all these pluses on his side, he's more like to make a fight losing mistake especially against a tough opponent who can last into later rounds.

It's a tough pick for me, my heart says Guillard, but his history makes it tricky. In terms of the odds, the EV is on Guillards side... So here's my highly decisive pick: Guillard via tko, Bet 1 unit.

Mark Hominick (-260) vs. George Roop (+200) - 145 lbs
Mark Hominick was just informed that if he beats Roop he gets a shot at Jose Aldo and the 145 lb belt! That's a huge motivator will likely cause a bump in the odds sooner than later. If you can get Hominick at -265 or better there's value in a chalk bet.

Matt Mitrione (-260) vs Tim Hague (+200) - 265 lbs 
Pat Barry (-230) vs. Joey Beltran (+186) - 265 lbs
Cole Miller (-200) vs. Matt Wiman (+160) - 155 lbs

Undercard (Untelevised)

170 lbs.: Mike Guymon vs. DaMarques Johnson
155 lbs.: Yves Edwards vs. Cody McKenzie
155 lbs.: Willamy Freire vs. Waylon Lowe
170 lbs.: Amilcar Alves vs. Charlie Brenneman
145 lbs.: Chan Sung Jung vs. Rani Yahya

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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