Anderson Silva vs Vitor Belfort Betting Odds and Analysis for UFC 126

By Paul Friday, February 04, 2011
Anderson Silva (-220 BetUS) vs Vitor Belfort (+230 5Dimes)
Record: 27-4-0Record: 12-0-0
WinsWins
15 (T)KO’s (56%)13 (T)KO’s (68%)
5 Submissions (18%)2 Submissions (11%)
7 Decisions (26%)4 Decisions (21%)
Losses
Losses
1 Decision (25%)2 (T)KO’s (25%)
2 Submissions (50%)1 Submissions (12%)
1 DQ  (25%)
5 Decision  (62%)
Height: 6’2”Height: 6’
Reach: 77.5”Reach: 74”

Fight Match up Edge: Anderson Silva - Thumbs up
The fight itself it will be a very quick boxing style vs an elusive Muy Thai counterstriker. On the off chance someone decides to go to the ground all bets are off, they're both extremely skilled and dangerous, but the one on his back will be in serious trouble. Not all that different from Shogun vs Machida.

The biggest difference between this fight and the one I just mentioned is Anderson's level of success. He holds the longest winning streak, the most title defenses, and of course the longest UFC title reign. This translates to a style that is not only elusive but destructive. In every fight he's been in he's done serious damage to his opponent. Even while being taken down over and over by Chael he still came close to finishing the fight on the feet...according to Sonnen himself.

Many folks are saying that Silva has never seen a striker this fast and that Vitor is exactly the type of fighter to crush his style. Well first, they were training partners and at places like Chute Box and Black House there are some all out wars with training partners, so in all fairness they have both seen each others style up close and personal for years.

Expect a typical Anderson start with jabbing, jiving, and teasing, then it will be Vitor to wade in deep and test waters. We won't know where this fight is going to go until that moment passes and it will pass. Yes we'll all jump off the couch, but Vitor is very unlikely to take Anderson out in round one, maybe later but Silva has never been TKO'd...Vitor has tasted a few though...

Unfortunately for Vitor his style and conditioning favor him in the first two rounds, but from there on out he'll be on a backslide while Silva will be coming on strong. So without letting this become an even longer senseless ramble here's my main thought:  I think this comes down to the first round and a half and if the fight is not over by then Anderson will finish it.

Training/Conditioning Edge: Anderson Silva - Thumbs up Thumbs up
Training, old personal ties, and injuries have been the bread and butter of the Vitor/Anderson saga.

Anderson started his training with Chute Box and in 2006 moved to Team Black House with other fighting greats, the Nogeruira brothers, Lyoto Machida, Dos Santos, Aldo and up until 2007 Vitor Belfort. Silva and Belfort were training partners and friends. Why that is no longer true is up to them, but having spent that much time together both have a great insight into the others game. Silva focuses on his Muy Thai striking but his background is supported by black belts in Tae Kwan Do, Judo, and BJJ. His elusive counterstriking style is pretty energy efficient and he's never shown that conditioning is a factor in his performances.

Anderson did suffer broken ribs in his win over Sonnen but his recovery was pretty quick. It's only been five months since his last fight and for a UFC champ that's not that long of a break. Anderson appears to be more motivated for this fight than his last few...whether it's personal or not...the more aggressive he is the worse off the opponent.

Vitor also started with Chute Box, moved to Team Black House, and now trains with the man who twice defeated him in the UFC at Xtreme Couture. In addition he trains with Team Vitor...whatever that means...the TapouT Training Center and hung out a bit with Mike Tyson after splitting ways with his striking coach Shawn Tompkins. The obvious story with his training is a lack of consistency, but he seems to like it.

Vitor's primary weapon is fast powerful boxing, but has other skills as well, holding blackbelts in Judo and BJJ. His conditioning, weight, and ring rust are the biggest questions in this fight. It will be Vitor's first UFC fight at 185 and he'll be doing it nearly a 1 1/2 years after his last fight. some of that time was spent recovering from shoulder surgery in 2010. His motivation to fight has been questioned by some around him, but his last three victories in 2008-9 leave no question about his speed and power.

Vegas Edge: Vitor Belfort -  
*Percent of bets on Anderson Silva - 57%
The public is looking to safety of a known commodity. This is shifting and is fairly close to even.

Trends Edge: Anderson Silva  - Very slight 
- Anderson is  12-0 when listed as the favorite (since 2006)
- Vitor is 1-0 when listed as the underdog (Since 2007)
- Anderson has finished the fight in 83% of his UFC wins (Since 2006)
- Vitor has finished the fight in 100% of his UFC wins (since 1997)
- Anderson never been TKO'd
- Vitor has been TKO'd twice

The odds in this are a little heavy for Anderson, but he's my pick and I'm not not betting on this fight. BetUS has held the best odds on Anderson for four days now but things my change as we get closer to the fight, so bet or get off the pot people.

Desert Dog’s Pick: Anderson Silva via TKO
Best Bet: 2.2 units to win 1 at BetUS Sportsbook

Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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