Jon Jones vs Ryan Bader Betting Odds and Analysis for UFC 126

By Paul Thursday, February 03, 2011
Jon Jones (-300 Bodog)   vs    Ryan Bader (+225 5Dimes)
Record: 11-1-0Record: 12-0-0
WinsWins
7 (T)KO’s (63.6%)5 (T)KO’s (41.7%)
2 Submissions (18.2%)3 Submissions (25%)
2 Decisions (18.2%)4 Decisions (33.3%)
LossesLosses
0 (T)KO’s (0%)0 (T)KO’s (0%)
0 Submissions (0%)0 Submissions (0%)
1 DQ  (100%)0 Decision  (0%)
Height: 6’4”Height: 6’2”
Reach: 84.5”Reach: 74”


Fight Match up Edge: Jon Jones - 
Bader calls Jon Jones style "flashy"... if that means that he has multiple fight ending weapons that come from varied positions, then I agree. Bader has a weak jab followed by a strong over hand right, a strong shot, and if he gets it to the ground he'll throw an over hand right. No subs, no improvement of position, no variation.

From Jones first UFC fight through his last one, I've said wow in every fight. The first impressive weapon to show up was his use of greco style throws and suplexes, next were his kicks and knees, quickly followed by his unique spinning elbows, and finally his slashing elbows on the ground. All of this is topped of with the longest reach currently found in the UFC...He even has 6'11" Struve beaten by 1.5". When a reach difference of a few inches is discussed it's nothing, but when the difference is over 10 inches and the fighter puts kicks and jabs to good use it makes a huge difference in your options for attack.

I felt like I was being harsh on Bader, so I just re-watched his last two fights and reviewed his UFC opponents...The results Meh! Four of Five going three rounds and only ONE win over a fighter with a winning UFC record (Magallhaes 0-2, Marrero 1-3, Shaffer 3-4, Jardine 6-7, Nogueira 2-1). In those five wins, I never once said wow! Bader's biggest asset is his athletasism, but against a faster fighter with a 10" reach advantage and excellent striking and wrestling, he'll most likely find himself on the defensive until the fight is over.

Training/Conditioning Edge: Jon Jones -
Jones trains at Jackson's Submission Fighting and Greg has tried to instill a sense of freedom in his style tempered with an understanding of his openents weakness and strengths. Jones is a tall and athletic 205 pounder and has shown no signs of gasing in any of his fights. Training at a camp that provides the best in the world as training partners and focuses on game planning is the main plus on the training side for Jones.

Bader trains with Power team MMA giving him traing partners like Aaron Simpson, CB Dollaway and a host of "B" level MMA wrestlers. Wrestlers typically show up in great condition and Ryan is no exception in that department. What he and his team are not know for is putting together a great game plan. He's recently dicovered the power in his striking, but if he can't find the mark on the fast and reachy Jones he'll quickly revert to his only plan...wrestle. This is the main negative on the training side for Bader.

Vegas Edge: Jon Jones -  
The public is agian chasing the underdog, just remember vegas doesn't lose often.
*Percent of bets on Ryan Bader - 66%

Trends Edge: Jon Jones  - Very slight 
- Jon is  3-0 when listed as the favorite 
- Ryan is 1-0 when listed as the underdog
- Jon has finished the fight in 60% of his UFC wins 
- Ryan has finished the fight in 28% of his UFC wins
- Both are unbeaten (ignores Jones DQ loss to Hamill)

I can't find any reason for a bet on Bader, but plenty of value for a chalk bet on Jones at -300 or better. The odds have been a bit of a roller coaster, fisrt opening at -450 and getting as good as -230. Things now look to be settling in around -280 to -300.

Desert Dog’s Pick: Jon Jones via TKO
Best Bet: 3 units to win 1 at Bodog Sportsbook

Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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