Georges St Pierre (-400 BetUS) vs Jake Shields (+300 BetUS)

St. Pierre (21-2) is a heavy favorite in the bout, as much as 4-to-1 according to some. With wins over Matt Hughes, Josh Koscheck and Sean Sherk, among others, on his resume, the book on GSP is that he chews up wrestlers. And wrestling is a big piece of Shields' success. Although he's better known for his submission game, Shields actually pays tribute to his wrestling roots by calling his hybrid wrestling/jiu-jitsu style "American jiu-jitsu."

Though Shields (26-4-1) does have a traditional wrestling background, his takedown style is somewhat unusual, and he is unafraid to sacrifice style for simple sweat. He is tenacious when he gets a hold of a leg, often working for the takedown well past the point others would have moved on to something else. As a result, Shields has successfully taken down opponents on 25 of 41 attempts (61 percent) over his last eight fights, according to Compustrike.

The fact he's tried over 40 takedowns in eight fights shows how he views the ground position. It's his go-to spot. And because of his success putting opponents on their backs, Shields has spent over 70 percent of those eight fights on the ground. That's a huge reason Shields has continued winning. Even when he faced Dan Henderson -- a former U.S. Olympic wrestler -- Shields used his wrestling to come back from a horrific first-round opening and win.

So if you're a Shields' fan, the question you are wondering is whether he can do the same thing to GSP. And the answer to that is, probably not. Shields is going to be facing an uphill task for sure. St. Pierre's 17 UFC opponents have only taken him down a total of six times between them. Meanwhile, St. Pierre's taken them down 56 times, a 79 percent success rate.

St. Pierre is a better offensive and defensive wrestler than anyone Shields has faced, yes, even better than Henderson, who was hampered by an undisclosed back problem when he lost to Shields.

On their feet, Shields will have an even more difficult task. Though he is often criticized for his somewhat unorthodox standup, the raw numbers show that he's more effective than his reputation suggests. He lands 43 percent of his standing strikes, just slightly below average for a high-level mixed martial artist. This is where St. Pierre really separates himself, landing over 50 percent of his standing strikes, including a higher ratio of power punches and kicks.

Despite the previous post from Bodog, I don't think this is any where near the time to throw in the towel for GSP. This will likely be a five round grind, with Sheilds taking a beating in all positions. The odds aren't great but I'll use this fight as part of a favorites parlay.

Pick: Georges St. Pierre via decision
Bet: Parlay GSP (-400) Aldo (-500), Henderson (-130) $100 to win $165.40

You wanna make a bet....
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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