Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos Odds

By Paul Wednesday, November 09, 2011
Cain Velasquez (-165 at BetOnline) vs Junior Dos Santos (+150 at Bodog)

Alright Fight Fans! This is set to be the best heavyweight battle in the history of the UFC. Two unbeaten forces of destruction squaring off for a world title. If you're not a UFC fan yet this one should do it.

Lets get to the betting odds for this fight and how it could pay out. The betting lines for this fight opened up close to even and have drifted apart ever since. In the last week the gap has widened with Cain Velazquez odds climbing to the point of nearly a 2 to 1 favorite at some books. Of course on the other side the odds for Junior Dos Santos are starting to look like a bargain at 1.5 to 1. The match is basically even, but the odds are showing the typical support for a defending champion.

Cain Velasquez's greatest strength is his wrestling, followed by his quick boxing oriented stand up. Both his takedowns and boxing require him to move a little more "inside the box" to be effective. He's shown a tremendous chin, only being staggered once. The most similar fighter he has faced in the UFC was Cheick Congo who uses a Muy Thai striking style and has similar size and reach. Cain was able to work through Cheick's stand up and get him to the ground where he could provide a solid drumming.

The key to winning for Cain is to close the distance and wear on Dos Santos until he can get it to the ground and work him over.  Velasquez does have the power and speed to end the fight on the feet, but the best game plan would be to take it where he has the best chance to control the action.

Junior Dos Santos is the most devastating power puncher in the UFC. His base style is boxing crossed with a bit of Muy Thai.  We haven't seen much of him on the ground, but we do know that his take down defense is 83% and has spent less than 30 seconds on his back in the UFC. Junior has been able to keep his opponents at bay with strong jabs and quick left hooks. Then comes the killer, his uppercut is plain frightening. His footwork and patience have provided him with some spectacular KO's while keeping him from taking much if any damage in his bouts.

The key to winning for Junior is patience and movement. Cain will be pressing the action trying to move inside looking for straight rights and takedowns. The change in levels when Cain moves for a take down will be when Junior looks to unleash an uppercut.  Using his jab and occasional kick to keep Cain outside will make for a long night and with Five 5 minute rounds, not even Velasquez's iron chin can handle that kind of abuse.

It's going to be a great war of will and power.

Prediction: Junior Dos Santos via TKO rd 4
Bets:  Junior Dos Santos $200 to win $300 (+150 at Bodog)
          Over 2.5 rounds   $150 to win $300 (+200 at BetOnline)

You Wanna Make a BET............
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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