Tim Boetsch vs Thales Lietes: My Top "Dog Pick" For UFC 183

By Paul Tuesday, January 27, 2015
Tim “Jeet Kune Do Bitches” Boetsch ($8000) has everything you are looking for when filling the bottom of your draft card. He has a decent probability for a win and he will have low ownership (<20%). To be in the money in cash games or GPPs you will need one fighter that sets your team apart. Sure Boetsch was 50/50 in both 2013 and 2012, but the Barbarian is a wrecking machine.

His opponent, Thales Leites looks good of late on paper. Scratch the surface a bit though and you see that since being embarrassed by Anderson Silva in 2009; he’s faced opponents on their way down or even out. I will give Thales a thumbs up for his last fight, with a first round TKO over Carmont, he looked very good. Carmont, however is primarily a takedown fighter who was on a two fight losing streak. The point is that, in this matchup, if Boetsch can keep this standing he will have the advantage and a chance to finish. For $8K it’s a risk I’m willing to take.

When using a low dollar draft pick, the rest of my team selection will be based on budget and then prognostication. With the generally lower prices on favorites in this event, you could draft 4 favorites along with Boetsch. A variation is to select one more underdog with a respectable EV and then use those savings to target the top favorites in the event - like Silva. The end product is a team with some risk but a much higher ceiling, meaning much more ideal for GPP's.

You Gotta Better Team ...
Desert Dog

I have followed the UFC for over 10 years, written as a handicapper, and spent my spare time as an online poker grinder. Unfortunately, I ran out of legal wagering options...Thank god for Daily Fantasy Sports and the much needed addition of MMA drafts. I offer my insight into MMA fight handicapping and fight analysis for the purpose of making some dough at DFS!

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