A fight with almost no draw but some potential for DFS points, at least from Dunham. Dunham and Damm are both on the losing side of most fights these days which could mean a trip to the chopping block for the loser of this one. This fight should play out on the feet and that means Dunham will have the upper hand. Evan is a 5 to 1 favorite for good reason. Dunham has an average of nearly 5 sig strikes/minute landed. If he maintains that average over three rounds and a decision win he could net 75+ DFS points and at his price that provides a reasonable value.
Shawn Jordan ($11k) vs. Jared Cannonier ($8.9k)
Heavy weights locking horns can result in a quick finish or two sweaty fat dudes gasping and hugging. Shawn Jordan is actually quite good at reserving his power and then knocking the shit out of his opponents. Jared Cannonier does have a few KO's to his name but in this fight, his best route to a finish is via BJJ, but that will be very difficult against Jordan's takedown defense. In terms of fantasy points the winner (likely Jordan) will walk away with 100+ points, that is an excellent total for any individual on your drafted team. On the flip-side, it could get boring very quickly, with each guy coming in with less than 50 pts.
Marcus Brimage ($11.1k) vs. Cody Garbrandt ($8.7k)
Cody Garbrandt makes his UFC debut with a 5-0 record, with all 5 wins coming by way of KO/TKO in either the 1st or 2nd round. We know he can strike, but we also shouldn’t sleep on his ability to control the fight with his wrestling. Brimage likes to strike and I think Garbrandt will oblige. Fights of this caliber often go to decision but due to their size strike tallies should be high. I think Cody Garbrant is a solid dogbet here and should bring home 60-70 points with a decision win.
Danny Castillo ($10.9k) vs. Paul Felder ($9.0k)
Paul Felder enters his second UFC fight with an undefeated 9-0 record. I will admit I've never seen him fight and have little insight into how he stacks up against a wrestler like Castillo. Team Alpha has put a lot of emphasis on improving their striking, but I expect Castillo do do what he knows best and take this to the mat for a low scoring affair on the ground. I think my fighter salary will be spent elsewhere.
Hector Lombard ($12.1k) vs. Josh Burkman ($7.7k)
This is an easy fight pick, but a tough DFS line to justify. Lombard is a human explosion and could easily get a first round finish in almost any fight (100+ pts). However... Josh Burkman is the definition of a veteran. He may not have a way to win this fight, but I bet he survives it. That means a potential decision win for Hector against a fleeing opponent; then your dominant favorite only scores you 50-60 pts and at a cost of $12.1K that's over $200 a point and you're on the wrong side of the balance sheet. If you want to draft a higher dollar favorite then stick with Jones or Horiguchi, they have the past output to justify their prices.
Kyoji Horiguchi ($12.0k) vs. Louis Gaudinot ($7.9k)
Horiguchi is a 7-1 favorite, Horiguchi lands an average of 4.56 ss/m and is the biggest favorite on the card, yet DK has priced him cheaper than Lombard. I see value if you can fit him under the cap. Much like the last fight this is an easy one to pick the winner, the question is will the type of fight we get result in 70+ points for the Gooch? I think he can finish prior to 3 rounds and pull it out.
Nate Marquardt ($10.5k) vs. Brad Tavares ($9.3k)
Nate Marquardt has been knocked out twice in three fights, he's 35 and yet he's the favorite? I think there was a little MMA-Math misuse by the odds-makers on this fight. Brad Tavares is coming off of two losses but his youth and hunger could likely propel him to a decision victory over Nate the Not-So-Great-Anymore. Tavares has good value here as another dogbet for your rosters.
Donald Cerrone ($11.0k) vs. Miles Jury ($8.8k)
Miles Jury brings an undefeated (15-0) record into his fight against Cowboy. Cerrone, on the other hand, has fought and beaten a who’s who of MMA stars. We also know the Cowboy Cerrone has tremendous striking output. If this were a 5 round fight I would consider rostering both fighters because I think it's going to a decision and I think it's a potential fight of the night. However with only three rounds you need to pick a winner if you want one of these guys on your team. I think Cerrone pulls this one out and get 60ish points. That's right on the edge of good value. I want fighters that cost about $160-$180 per point. Cerrone will likely be over that but with only 9 fights and 18 fighters to draft from you've got to pick someone damn it! I'm leaning toward Cerrone on about half of the teams I roster for UFC 182.
Jon Jones ($11.7k) vs. Daniel Cormier ($9.6k)
OK, winner and loser aside there's inherent extra value in a 5-round fight, it's just more time to score. If you pick the winner here they will, on average, get a higher total score than a similarly priced fighter in a 3-round fight (the odds of a finish inside the distance being the same). Jon Jones has gone the distance in his last few fights with over 100 significant strikes in each, and when he's finished fights it's generally been early resulting very nice DFS point totals. The same goes for Cormier, he's undefeated and whether it goes the distance or he finishes his point totals are high due to his style. This is a tough one to call. These are two very big boys for the division, but after reading Cheal Sonnen's Interview at MMAMania.com, I think he's got some great points and Jon Jones has the better chance of winning this one. The price for Jones is completely reasonable and should provide great value if he comes in near his average of 84 PPG. Now the question is there value on betting both sides of this one? If you think they go 5 rounds and both fighters stay as busy as they have in the past; the loser could pull in 50-60 points and at Cormier's price that's great value. I think I'll play both sides on a few of my teams and see how it plays out.
--------> Enter the $25,000 Guilotine at DraftKings.com for $2 <-----
You Wanna Make a Bet.......