My initial strategy was to pick each fight and then determine the probability of either a finish or a high output performance. Heavyweights and L. Heavyweights are more likely to see an early stoppage; while high output fighters are found in every weight class. Jon Jones is a great example of a fighter who should almost never be faded. Jones will be in 5-round fights, when he finishes it's early, and when he goes the distance he typically has over 100 SS, several other scores, and the win bonus.
My total points goal for an MMA Fantasy team is 325, that should put me in the money for most events. To achieve this with a $50,000 salary cap and 5 fighters, I want to pay on average $153 per point and get an average of 65 points per fighter. Sounds simple enough and for most of the fights on the UFC 182 card things were fairly predictable. I did not think Cerrone would spend a whole round on Jury's back controlling things, but scoring very few points, and I didn't expect an awesome spinning backfist Knockout by Felder. I did think Jordan was likely to get an early finish, but didn't expect Horiguchi to be quite so tentative for the full three rounds.
In the end, you will need to pick winners. Typically 2 favorites and 3 dogs. The top score from the $25,000 Guillotine event was 436 points from Dunham, Jordan, Felder, Garbrandt, and Tavares. You may never get 5 cherries like that but even with only 3 of your 5 fighters winning and the other two putting in a respectable showing (ie. Cormier, or Burkman) you could break 300 points and have been in the top 10% of most games. If you play a lot (grinders) you'll be focused on head 2 head or 50/50 games and these respectable point totals will provide a great ROI.
As new events come up I will be reviewing the bouts with respect to how they play in fantasy drafts...Because it's the only legal game in town and I love playing for money. I'll still be looking for value in each fight, except now I need more than just the "W".
|UFC 182 Fighters||SALARY||Event PPG||$ / Point||Win Lose||Points Breakdown|
|Daniel Cormier||$9,600||31.0||$309.68||L||58 SS, 1 TD|
|Jon Jones||$11,700||77.0||$151.95||W||92 SS, 3 TD, 1 WBD|
|Myles Jury||$8,800||9.5||$926.32||L||15 SS, 1 TD|
|Donald Cerrone||$11,000||49.5||$222.22||W||37 SS, 2 ADVC, 1 TD, 1 REV, 1 WBD|
|Brad Tavares||$9,300||52.0||$178.85||W||50 SS, 1 TD, 1 WBD|
|Nate Marquardt||$10,500||15.0||$700.00||L||30 SS|
|Louis Gaudinot||$7,900||11.5||$686.96||L||23 SS|
|Kyoji Horiguchi||$12,000||49.0||$244.90||W||44 SS, 1 TD, 1 WBD|
|Hector Lombard||$12,100||57.5||$210.43||W||53 SS, 2 ADVC, 2 TD, 1 WBD|
|Josh Burkman||$7,700||21.0||$366.67||L||42 SS,|
|Danny Castillo||$10,900||10.5||$1,038.10||L||21 SS|
|Paul Felder||$9,000||89.5||$100.56||W||33 SS, 1 KD, 1 2rW|
|Marcus Brimage||$11,000||12.5||$880.00||L||25 SS|
|Cody Garbrandt||$8,700||82.5||$105.45||W||49 SS, 1 TD, 2 KD, 1 3rW|
|Shawn Jordan||$11,000||109.0||$100.92||W||12 SS, 1 KD, 1rW|
|Jared Cannonier||$8,900||5.0||$1,780.00||L||10 SS|
|Rodrigo Damm||$8,000||23.5||$340.43||L||47 SS|
|Evan Dunham||$11,800||103.0||$114.56||W||152 SS, 1 TD, 1WBD|