Comments on Desert Dog's UFC Betting Odds: UFC 98 Betting Odds: Matt Hughes vs Matt Serra

yeah i wish I could have got one in at -185. I did...

2009-05-04T15:21:00.000-06:00

yeah i wish I could have got one in at -185. I didn't get a look at the lines until he was at -250. I still have a bet on him though, because I just can't envision him losing to anything other than a flash KO. Serra has never submitted anyone even decent, and certainly nobody of Hughes' caliber. He has shown an ability to drop people, but he has only ever finished one person with strikes (gsp, in what can only be described as a freak fight). You really think Serra wins this fight 4/10 times?

I'd like to hear what you think about Sherk/Edgar. IMO Sherk is a total lock. I don't think Edgar has anything for him. I got a big bet in when the lines opened at -275. I think its at -300 now, which still has value IMO

You're right that Hughes probably has decent value...

2009-05-04T12:02:00.000-06:00

You're right that Hughes probably has decent value as a chalk bet. It was much better when the odds first hit the board at -185. I considered a bet then, but I really don't like betting on Hughes and so if I can't keep emotion out of a bet I avoid it.

I don't think he should be an 80% favorite (-400)though, 3 years ago yes, but his mind is elsewhere these days. I think he'll win but, Serra has a solid 30+% chance of winning maybe even close to 40%....Unless of course Serra is as sidetracked as Hughes.

If you like it, I'd say go for the bet, it's not a bad one just not a standout.

I disagree, I think there is some value in a chalk...

2009-05-04T09:33:00.000-06:00

I disagree, I think there is some value in a chalk bet on Hughes. I feel Serra fans and Hughes-haters have pushed the line a little. I think realistically Hughes should be more like a -400 favorite.